London Has Peaked

padington

A neighbour near me has put their property on the market because the wife has got itchy feat. The husband said, I doubt we'll actually move, selling this one isn't the problem, we just can't find anything out there we want to move into'.

That's the 500k house market though, very different for the 2 million plus.

So when you see a cheap property sitting on the shelf, don't necessarily jump to conclusions, this market has suddenly become a little confusing.

... And when you hear 'london' properties are going up or down, make sure to break down which London properties they are talking about. Some rich areas are going to get slammed but some poor ones are going to lift quite nicely I would imagine.

When the window tax came in, demand for windows went down but the demand for building materials to fill the gap went up.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

I'm not and don't. My next house purchase will be in April 2022. I won't be fannying about trying to time the sale and subsequent purchase - I'll just deal with the market as I find it. Currently thinking that I'll upsize so hoping prices fall between now and then.

I certainly don't think I have the ability to correctly time within a month or two so won't attempt to. You keep trying to kid yourself you have special predictive powers though.You don't seem to have a grasp of what's happening on Rodney Place let alone London as a whole.

Hard to deny that deflation is real though? Not good for those who borrowed to match bubble prices.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

I can't speak for everyone, but I'm just hoping that my tenants keep on paying their rent and that my ftse investments carry on paying the dividend income. I don't see any reason to be pessimistic about that.


As regards to selling, I may not sell my shares for another 15-20 years (when I might be within 10 years of my death) and I don't think I will be selling any property for about 10 years (possibly longer).

Deflation?

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

A neighbour near me has put their property on the market because the wife has got itchy feat. The husband said, I doubt we'll actually move, selling this one isn't the problem, we just can't find anything out there we want to move into'.

That's the 500k house market though, very different for the 2 million plus.

So when you see a cheap property sitting on the shelf, don't necessarily jump to conclusions, this market has suddenly become a little confusing.

... And when you hear 'london' properties are going up or down, make sure to break down which London properties they are talking about. Some rich areas are going to get slammed but some poor ones are going to lift quite nicely I would imagine.

When the window tax came in, demand for windows went down but the demand for building materials to fill the gap went up.

Still hoping "Supply and Demand" will ride to the rescue, HPI pistols drawn are you? :j It will be Up Up and Away...until it isn't.

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Still hoping "Supply and Demand" will ride to the rescue, HPI pistols drawn are you? :j It will be Up Up and Away...until it isn't.

It already has been. 75% up in 36 months round my neck of the woods. All whilst you professed the wisdom of paying rent.

Time to change avatar, no ?

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Deflation?

Even if we did have some minor inflation I can't see tenants moving out of London properties into tented villages or a major reduction of dividend payments. If you live your life in continual expectation of the worst possible outcome, it means that you will miss out on prosperity. When you look at your financial position, that probably more or less sums up why you are where you are now.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Even if we did have some minor inflation I can't see tenants moving out of London properties into tented villages or a major reduction of dividend payments. If you live your life in continual expectation of the worst possible outcome, it means that you will miss out on prosperity. When you look at your financial position, that probably more or less sums up why you are where you are now.

I am talking about the serious "threat" of deflation which is now stalking the EZ and the rest of the world. No idea what you are rambling about. People with large mortgages will find them more difficult to pay, and tenants will have less wages to pay rent. I am cash rich and renting cheaply already, my interest is just in discussing some reality with HPI Bunkeristas.

padington

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I am talking about the serious "threat" of deflation which is now stalking the EZ and the rest of the world. No idea what you are rambling about. People with large mortgages will find them more difficult to pay, and tenants will have less wages to pay rent. I am cash rich and renting cheaply already, my interest is just in discussing some reality with HPI Bunkeristas.

More worry there is about deflation, lower the interest rates will be for longer. I love the sound of the 'threat' of deflation, just as long as we never actually have it.

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I am talking about the serious "threat" of deflation which is now stalking the EZ and the rest of the world. No idea what you are rambling about. People with large mortgages will find them more difficult to pay, and tenants will have less wages to pay rent. I am cash rich and renting cheaply already, my interest is just in discussing some reality with HPI Bunkeristas.

As Paddington said, deflation worries will encourage interest rates to stay lower for longer, I'm currently about £29k per annum (gross) better off with rates being this low.


I was referring to you resorting to living in a shared rental, whereas if you had bought years ago you would have been in a much better position.


Our mortgages are not large LTV mortgages, only about 12.5%, and we have enough liquid cash/investments to pay them off if necessary, but at only about a 1% mortgage rate, that wouldn't be a good move.

If you remember we were specifically talking about me (hence the 'I can't speak for everyone' comment) rather than generally.

Bubble_and_Squeak

deflation might actually increase hpi inflation as they will start printing money again
some figures released earlier this month showed that money coming into london property from asia increased while everywhere else fell. i'm assuming this is from japanese QE