Radio 4: Bricks and Bubbles

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

sennypijama wrote: »

. I care about logic and statistics.
Do we need more housing? Maybe.

Between 1969-1989 we built 4,302,270 houses in England, but between 1994-2012 it was only 2,687,040, fewer by more than 1.6m.

In order to restore housing supply and affordability, according to the NHPAU analysis, would require 4,940,000 houses in a 19-year period, 2,252,960 more than were built between 1994-2012.

So we have a building deficit of between 1.6-2.3m houses to make up even before we start to cater for future growth in demand.

http://www.pieria.co.uk/articles/green_belt_scaremongering_obscures_a_housing_shortage_that_is_truly_frightening

sennypijama

The ONS says that the population of England was 53.9 million in 2013.

It says that the average household size was 2.37.

So the number of dwellings required in England should be 22.74 million.

The ONS states that the number of dwellings (including vacant) in England in 2013 was 23.236 million (table 100).

That's enough to accommodate a household size of 2.31.

The fact that the current household size has been between 2.36 and 2.38 since 2001 does not back up the theory that there are not enough properties. If there were not enough properties, we would expect the household size to have shrunk to meet the available number of dwellings.





.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

sennypijama wrote: »

The fact that the current household size has been between 2.36 and 2.38 since 2001 does not back up the theory that there are not enough properties. If there were not enough properties, we would expect the household size to have shrunk to meet the available number of dwellings.

The average staying the same is a sign of rising housing pressure though.

We've seen a big increase in single person households over the last few decades.

If we were building enough houses to keep up with housing need, the average should have fallen to around 2.0 by now, as it already has in many other developed nations unconstrained by a housing shortage.

The number of people living on their own has more than doubled since 1971.

Around 14% of the population in England now live alone compared with 6.5% in 1971.

■ Most of the growth has been among those of working age – from 1 million living alone in 1971 to 3.5 million now. A much greater proportion of working age adults now live alone than used to be the case.

The growth in people living alone is a matter of potential concern because it has tangible implications for the overall consumption of housing and other resources which tend to increase in proportion to the number of households rather than to the total population;

http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/9781859354759.pdf

sennypijama

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The average staying the same is a sign of rising housing pressure though.

We've seen a big increase in single person households over the last few decades.

If we were building enough houses to keep up with housing need, the average should have fallen to around 2.0 by now, as it already has in many other developed nations unconstrained by a housing shortage.


http://www.jrf.org.uk/sites/files/jrf/9781859354759.pdf

I've read the 2006 Rowntree report that you keep posting.

The number of people living alone in 2013 was 7.66 million, which would correlate to an increase of about a further 0.5 million by 2021. I am not dismissing that, but my figures from 2013 already include the increase to 7.66 million.

We all have vested interests. Let me make it clear that mine is to make sure that facts and statistics beat political rhetoric - from whichever side - with cold hard figures.

This table suggests that a household size of 2.37 is about average for Europe.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

sennypijama wrote: »

I've read the 2006 Rowntree report that you keep posting.

Ecxellent.

Have you also read the analysis by Paul Cheshire, Emeritus Professor of Economic Geography - London School of Economics, which notes that the UK is already short of circa 1.6 million to 2.3 million houses today?

Between 1969-1989 we built 4,302,270 houses in England, but between 1994-2012 it was only 2,687,040, fewer by more than 1.6m.

In order to restore housing supply and affordability, according to the NHPAU analysis, would require 4,940,000 houses in a 19-year period, 2,252,960 more than were built between 1994-2012.

So we have a building deficit of between 1.6-2.3m houses to make up even before we start to cater for future growth in demand.

http://www.pieria.co.uk/articles/gre...ly_frightening

Or for that matter, the numerous studies by Shelter, the JRF, the BOE, etc, that all conclude much the same thing?

sennypijama

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ecxellent.

Have you also read the analysis by Paul Cheshire, Emeritus Professor of Economic Geography - London School of Economics, which notes that the UK is already short of circa 1.6 million to 2.3 million houses today?

Yes. I wonder which bridges the 3.72 to 5.45 million homeless people are living under!

People make mistakes, and logical inconsistencies. Even Economics professors - especially those who make understandable mistakes with statistics.

For example, historical housebulding needn't have a correlation with future housebuilding, otherwise we would just keep on building house after house until the land was full of them.

As I've said, the facts - the cold hard numbers - don't back up what you're posting. These facts are available for you to see on the ONS website.

However, I am coming to realise that you might well be the kind of person who doesn't let the facts get in the way of a good argument!

It was fun doing the research last night while I couldn't sleep, but at this stage, I'll withdraw.