Radio 4: Bricks and Bubbles

lukeh23

Episode 1 of 4

With official statistics showing UK house prices up almost 10% over the past year, the Governor of the Bank of England has described rising property prices as the greatest threat to economic recovery. But are fears of a property bubble justified?
In the first of a four part series, Michael Robinson travels across the UK to ask what's going on in the British housing market.

In the South West he finds estate agents with almost nothing to sell while buyers snap up houses within days of their coming onto the market. In the North-West where houses are far cheaper, first time buyers are struggling to compete with a new army of buy-to let landlords. And in Northern Ireland, where prices are now low enough for first time buyers to get a foot onto the ladder, he also meets some of the casualties of one of the biggest property crashes in UK history

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b04c9gsg

Thrugelmir

Reinforces the regional disparities in the property market, and the issues now caused by 5 years of low interest rates. Good introductory programme be interesting to see how the following 3 measure up.

lukeh23

I found the estate agent from Oldham raised an eyebrow and a smile. Land registry stated the area as seeing 12% rise in values, and yet he is chasing up buyers and dropping prices the whole time.

Interesting how NI actually hit bottom and now FTB's are benefiting and the EA's feel the market is in a more overall healthy state.

ukcarper

lukeh23 wrote: »

I found the estate agent from Oldham raised an eyebrow and a smile. Land registry stated the area as seeing 12% rise in values, and yet he is chasing up buyers and dropping prices the whole time.

Do you think land registry make up figures latest report shows prices up 9.2% over the last year in Oldham with 0% over month. Average price £83k not exactly out of reach for someone on average earnings.

lukeh23

ukcarper wrote: »

Do you think land registry make up figures latest report shows prices up 9.2% over the last year in Oldham with 0% over month. Average price £83k not exactly out of reach for someone on average earnings.

Write a letter to radio 4 then.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

lukeh23 wrote: »

Interesting how NI actually hit bottom and now FTB's are benefiting and the EA's feel the market is in a more overall healthy state.

Northern Ireland is a completely different situation to the rest of the UK.

The mainland UK did not have a speculative bubble in house prices, just a genuine imbalance between supply and demand which caused prices to rise in order to ration the limited supply.

Which is exactly how healthy markets are supposed to work.

Northern Ireland had no such shortage, and instead saw an influx of hot money from the ROI which caused prices to almost double in just over a year.



It was the only region of the UK which saw a genuine speculative bubble. And that's why it has performed so differently to the rest of the UK both before and after the credit crunch.

After all, monetary policy in Northern Ireland is exactly the same as monetary policy in the rest of the UK.

Yet record low interest rates, QE, FFL, etc, could not stop prices there falling.

Which is exactly what you'd expect when their price rises were not caused by fundamental shortages like the UK's were, but were instead caused by a speculative bubble.

ukcarper

lukeh23 wrote: »

Write a letter to radio 4 then.

I've been around long enough to take most things I hear in the media with a pinch of salt. My point is you seem to believe prices are not increasing in Oldham because of what an estate agent said.

lukeh23

ukcarper wrote: »

I've been around long enough to take most things I hear in the media with a pinch of salt. My point is you seem to believe prices are not increasing in Oldham because of what an estate agent said.

The proof of burden is on you Mr Oldham real estate expert.

I am just repeating what someone who works in Oldham as an estate agent is claiming.

ukcarper

lukeh23 wrote: »

The proof of burden is on you Mr Oldham real estate expert.

I am just repeating what someone who works in Oldham as an estate agent is claiming.

I believe the land reg figures as they are based on actual sold figures but you have to remember they are a few months behind.

Thrugelmir

lukeh23 wrote: »

Interesting how NI actually hit bottom and now FTB's are benefiting and the EA's feel the market is in a more overall healthy state.

The UK taxpayer took a big hit. With RBS writing off billions through its subsidiary Ulster Bank.

AndyGuil

Asking prices up 0.85% for London, 0.57% UK.