'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

ukcarper

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Looks like flat 81/3 sold for £86,000 in 2005 and their neighbour is now asking £74,950 in 2014? Good job mortgage rates have been kept artificially low I think.

No comment on sale prices in 2002 then and I would have though prices would have been lower than that in 1998.

IveSeenTheLight

wotsthat wrote: »

I've a horrible feeling that this might be the first time Crashy/ DWS has come close to checking their faith based system against the numbers.

Luckily they appear to be a great fan of renting.

I think they are just a troll.

They're just a comic character short of a geneer

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Looks like flat 81/3 sold for £86,000 in 2005 and their neighbour is now asking £74,950 in 2014? Good job mortgage rates have been kept artificially low I think.

Is there a material difference between 81/3 and 81/1 (the flat you linked to) because your flat went for £70k just a few months after 81/3 went for £86k. You're probably comparing apples to oranges. High 40's is a much better figure to use.

You're dreaming if you think that they were pretty much the same price in 2002 - that's just rationalisation after the fact in a desperate attempt to make your break even appear half way possible compared to the horrible truth of the matter.

Happy to run your own figures but blissful ignorance and dogma might be better for you I suppose.

Crashy_Time

ukcarper wrote: »

No comment on sale prices in 2002 then and I would have though prices would have been lower than that in 1998.

It seems that the loose credit/liar loan phenomenon affected Edinburgh later than I remembered it, a price surge seems to have taken place between 2002 and 2004. 81 Gorgie Road appears to have sold for £71,000 in 2004 and ten years later someone is asking £74,950? Big Wow. At least they will get a nice holiday out of their "profit", if they can find a buyer that is. Of course for the purpose of this thread we don`t talk about all the rent they have paid to the bank.

IveSeenTheLight

Crashy_Time wrote: »

"Dissected" is probably not the right word. Why don`t you ask your friends in Edinburgh how much flats were in 2002. Remember my example is 10 minutes by bus from Princes St. These things are important to property mentalists I believe.

My wife and Friends liven in Robertson Avenue, just off Gorgie Road.
Prior to that I know people who lived on Dundee Terrace and Fowler Terrace, which is also just up the road.

I am aware of the costs at that time

I can also search google and find: --

81/1 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH11 2LA
£69,995 Residential 02 Feb 20061 bedroom

81/10 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH11 2LA
£75,925 Residential 12 Mar 2004

81/11 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, EH11 2LA
£110,000 Residential 19 Oct 2006

81/3 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH11 2LA
£86,000 Residential 01 Nov 2005
£65,000 Residential 31 May 2005

81/7 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, EH11 2LA
£68,500 Residential 06 Aug 2003

81, Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, EH11 2LA
£71,000 Residential 13 Aug 2004
£47,000 Residential 01 Aug 2002
£48,984 Residential 25 Jan 2002

So I can understand your example has went from £40k to £70k, in the 16 years (including the 2008 correction), but the repayments as shown by Wotsthat would be less than the current value.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

Is there a material difference between 81/3 and 81/1 (the flat you linked to) because your flat went for £70k just a few months after 81/3 went for £86k. You're probably comparing apples to oranges. High 40's is a much better figure to use.

You're dreaming if you think that they were pretty much the same price in 2002 - that's just rationalisation after the fact in a desperate attempt to make your break even appear half way possible compared to the horrible truth of the matter.

Happy to run your own figures but blissful ignorance and dogma might be better for you I suppose.

81/1 now appears to be trying to cash in at £74,950.

IveSeenTheLight

Crashy_Time wrote: »

It seems that the loose credit/liar loan phenomenon affected Edinburgh later than I remembered it, a price surge seems to have taken place between 2002 and 2004. 81 Gorgie Road appears to have sold for £71,000 in 2004 and ten years later someone is asking £74,950? Big Wow. At least they will get a nice holiday out of their "profit", if they can find a buyer that is. Of course for the purpose of this thread we don`t talk about all the rent they have paid to the bank.

LOL, no the point is (AS YOU WELL KNOW) that in the 10 years which includes the 2008 / 2009 correction, the price is still worth more, so there is no negative equity, value has increased and instead of rent, you have paid off a mortgage on a property.

ukcarper

if some one had bought 81 for £49k in 2002 they would have paid £26k interest if interest only if repayment less.

wotsthat

Crashy_Time wrote: »

It seems that the loose credit/liar loan phenomenon affected Edinburgh later than I remembered it, a price surge seems to have taken place between 2002 and 2004. 81 Gorgie Road appears to have sold for £71,000 in 2004 and ten years later someone is asking £74,950? Big Wow. At least they will get a nice holiday out of their "profit", if they can find a buyer that is. Of course for the purpose of this thread we don`t talk about all the rent they have paid to the bank.

At 17 years into a £71k mortgage at 4.55% someone would have paid £80k on a repayment mortgage and have £43k in equity. Of course your memory of historical prices is rotten so the position in reality is much better for them.

Remind us how much you've paid in the same period and how much equity you have.

Crashy_Time

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

My wife and Friends liven in Robertson Avenue, just off Gorgie Road.
Prior to that I know people who lived on Dundee Terrace and Fowler Terrace, which is also just up the road.

I am aware of the costs at that time

I can also search google and find: --

81/1 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH11 2LA
£69,995 Residential 02 Feb 20061 bedroom

81/10 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH11 2LA
£75,925 Residential 12 Mar 2004

81/11 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, EH11 2LA
£110,000 Residential 19 Oct 2006

81/3 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, Midlothian EH11 2LA
£86,000 Residential 01 Nov 2005
£65,000 Residential 31 May 2005

81/7 Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, EH11 2LA
£68,500 Residential 06 Aug 2003

81, Gorgie Road, Edinburgh, EH11 2LA
£71,000 Residential 13 Aug 2004
£47,000 Residential 01 Aug 2002
£48,984 Residential 25 Jan 2002

So I can understand your example has went from £40k to £70k, in the 16 years (including the 2008 correction), but the repayments as shown by Wotsthat would be less than the current value.

No, my example was just plucked from Rightmove, I have never viewed that flat although I live not far from it. The 40k figure came from viewing flats in the late 90`s and finding very little of interest at that price level. One of them, West Preston St. I think, was little more than a room with a sofa and cooker, then a ladder up to a large wooden platform with a sleeping space!


From what has been posted it seems that Edinburgh ticked along at late 90`s price levels until 2002, then the cheap credit flow + Liar Loans added fuel to the Ponzi. However, your example highlights my original argument, prices on these flats have gone nowhere in ten years. People buying back in 2004 would have believed that their investment would have at least doubled.