'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

robmatic

Crashy_Time wrote: »

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices-in-my-area/marketTrendsTotalAvailableListingsAndNew.html?searchLocation=sw8&sellersPriceGuide=Update+Results

Quite interesting doing that with EH11: looks like an increasingly healthy market. Increased sales and steady prices... gin and tonics all round!

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Which begs the question Chucky, if your life is so full why are you popping up here every time someone challenges HPI Forever, or makes a joke about HPI Forever? You bought (or did you borrow money at interest to live in a house, I can`t remember?) in `05, why are you still haunting these boards waving the HPI flag? Go and break some bricks (and mortar) over your head mate.

First of all (as you well know) I'm not chucky, you are about the third person to accuse me of being chucky, the other two were equally dim.


I come here mainly to keep track of what is going on in the savings and investments board (I'm starting to invest in shares, although I have dabbled a little for a few years). I'm not waving a HPI flag, actually I don't really expect house prices to rise (in real terms) much above current prices. But I do think that average long term capital growth in line with inflation plus a good rental yield (enhanced with a low mortgage rate) equates to a damn good investment return.


EDIT: PS if you read this chucky, no offence intended, I hope everything is going well for you.

Crashy_Time

robmatic wrote: »

Quite interesting doing that with EH11: looks like an increasingly healthy market. Increased sales and steady prices... gin and tonics all round!

Just looks like a lot of people have been trying to flog their properties for a long time?

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

First of all (as you well know) I'm not chucky, you are about the third person to accuse me of being chucky, the other two were equally dim.


I come here mainly to keep track of what is going on in the savings and investments board (I'm starting to invest in shares, although I have dabbled a little for a few years). I'm not waving a HPI flag, actually I don't really expect house prices to rise (in real terms) much above current prices. But I do think that average long term capital growth in line with inflation plus a good rental yield (enhanced with a low mortgage rate) equates to a damn good investment return.

Don`t you understand that that is the polar opposite of the manipulated Ponzi market that we are in? The swings in this type of market are going to wipe people out, because people have borrowed too much to be in the market, in the lowest rate environment we have known?

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Don`t you understand that that is the polar opposite of the manipulated Ponzi market that we are in? The swings in this type of market are going to wipe people out, and people have borrowed too much to be in the market, in the lowest rate environment we have known?

You speak to me about not understanding the market? :rotfl: I am only responsible for my finances, not every property investor.

robmatic

Crashy_Time wrote: »

So they lose the deposit first, then they go into N.E, what is your point? The second one is not something you can know with any certainty, and we do know that many many people MEW`ed and took out I.O loans?

There would be a hell of way to go before any recent purchaser lost their deposit. How much do prices generally come off peak in a crash? Twenty percent last time wasn't it?

We also know that banks now shift people onto repayment mortgages and have been doing so for years.

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Would you say your views on the potential for HPI in Edinburgh have changed since you used to post on HPC?

Not really, I'm not expecting much HPI in Edinburgh without wage growth. I bought because I had access to cash and it was much cheaper and more secure than renting.

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

You speak to me about not understanding the market? :rotfl: I am only responsible for my finances, not every property investor.

You bought in `05, you might have done so comfortably for cash, or paid down a lot of your mortgage, but the eventual value of your investment depends on sentiment, credit, the behaviour of the other market participants, and even more worryingly, the government. If you had bought in 1995, then unless you had borrowed heavily against your house (many did it seems) you would not be troubled too much by a big correction. `05 is a bit close to Ponzi Ground Zero for my tastes.

robmatic

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Just looks like a lot of people have been trying to flog their properties for a long time?

The total on market has shrunk quite a lot over the last two years...

Crashy_Time

The biggest giveaway about this market for me is the speed at which posters materialise to shoot down Pro - Crash views. In some cases they would have us believe that their life is full of hobbies and gardening and walking dogs etc. while they are TOTALLY comfortable with the borrowing decisions they have made in the greatest Ponzi scheme of all time. Pull the other one guys, HPI reversal is the worst nightmare of many posting on here, and their financial futures are very heavily dependent on the property market making "gains" in the future.

Crashy_Time

robmatic wrote: »

The total on market has shrunk quite a lot over the last two years...

Because they have been holding out for "prices to go back up" or "things to get better". Lets see how the totals shape up when people realise we are going into a proper correction shall we?