UK has fastest growing economy of the developed world

mayonnaise

Just a confirmation of what we all knew already.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10988849/UK-has-fastest-growing-economy-International-Monetary-Fund-says.html

Britain's economy is growing faster than those of every other major developed country, the International Monetary Fund has disclosed.
In a vindication of George Osborne’s economic plan, the IMF upgraded its forecast for UK growth to 3.2 per cent this year

Generali

I think it reflects well on the IMF that they are prepared to say that they were wrong in a public way like this.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IronWolf

And things like manufacturing, especially of cars, are on the up.

As much as Labour complain about people being "squeezed" we know in reality this is a price that had to be paid for unemployment to stay low.

And it cant be that bad with retail sales finally increasing and getting some momentum. Soon they wont even be able to complain about the squeezed middle.

Now we just need to get our house-building sorted...

mayonnaise

IronWolf wrote: »

And it cant be that bad with retail sales finally increasing and getting some momentum. Soon they wont even be able to complain about the squeezed middle.

Indeed.

UK retail sales see strongest calendar increase in a decade

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/07/24/uk-britain-retail-idUKKBN0FT0UV20140724

'in a decade'....

Generali

mayonnaise wrote: »

Indeed.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/07/24/uk-britain-retail-idUKKBN0FT0UV20140724

'in a decade'....

Crivens!

Retail sales volumes rose 1.6 percent in the second quarter compared with the previous three months

That's a 1.6% increase in a quarter, not an annualised increase. That's a 6.6% increase annualised, entering Chinese growth territory!

On the face of it, it's hard to see how this can go on too much longer without the BoE increasing interest rates. Having said that there's no real sign of inflation taking off, GDP is only just about to rise above the previous high (which implies spare capacity may exist in the system), house prices are rocketing away but that doesn't seem to be as a result of increasing debt levels, unemployment is falling quickly but is still higher than it could/should be. Perhaps the BoE can hold out until next spring or so.

It'll be interesting to see when the first dissenting votes come in to the MPC, i.e. members start to vote for rate increases. If I was on the MPC then I'd at least be looking at the data for reasons to keep me from voting for an increase, i.e. my bias now would be to increase rates rather than keep them on hold. The sooner rates get back to 'normal', the better for the economy I think.

tomterm8

Generali wrote: »

Crivens!
If I was on the MPC then I'd at least be looking at the data for reasons to keep me from voting for an increase, i.e. my bias now would be to increase rates rather than keep them on hold. The sooner rates get back to 'normal', the better for the economy I think.

If I was on the MPC I'd probably be worrying the **** off about the quantitative easing money right now and trying to neutralize it before I even thought about interest rates.

Kind of feel like we're looking over the edge of a supervolcano and it's not rumbling yet...

Thrugelmir

With 60% of the UK economy dependent on consumer spend. The concensus view is that the the recovery as it stands is unsustainable. Not least that the growth is funded by debt. Despite over 5 years of record low interest rates the UK consumer owes more than at the time of the GFC.

It's the UK's menatility which is out of touch with reality reading much of the media commentary. At some point we're going to come unstuck while others plod by.

ruggedtoast

Thrugelmir wrote: »

With 60% of the UK economy dependent on consumer spend. The concensus view is that the the recovery as it stands is unsustainable. Not least that the growth is funded by debt. Despite over 5 years of record low interest rates the UK consumer owes more than at the time of the GFC.

It's the UK's menatility which is out of touch with reality reading much of the media commentary. At some point we're going to come unstuck while others plod by.

I guess its your cheerful outlook as keeps you going.

Thrugelmir

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I guess its your cheerful outlook as keeps you going.

I leave deception to the politicians. Prefer to live in the real world. Helps one make better informed decisions.

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The concensus view is that the the recovery as it stands is unsustainable. Not least that the growth is funded by debt.

Wrong.

UK's recovery not debt-fuelled

There does appear to be a trend of gentle deleveraging, or a reduction in debts as a percentage of income, after the many years of binging on credit.

First, it would be wrong to characterise the recovery as debt-fuelled.

Second, with austerity rolling relentlessly on this year, and GDP at market prices likely to keep rising faster than private sector debts, 2014 should be a year in which the overall leverage or indebtedness of the British economy falls pretty sharply.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26819969