Financial Times "Looks like a bubble ready to burst"

padington

dktreesea wrote: »

I'm from London, and would live there, despite the pollution, lack of a sea view, every second person a foreigner (didn't one of the newspapers report that the majority of the population in London is now non-British?) no decent hills or mountains nearby, hopeless driving conditions....if I could afford to buy a house, mortgage free, in Herne Hill.

On the other hand, why mess with paradise? Edinburgh, below the snowline (this isn't a good place, imho, to be living above it), has great weather, dazzling views of the sea, a mere 20 minute walk away, clean air, ski slopes, a real hill, flood defences that get built even for a bit of water in the back gardens (only for river and creek flooding, mind. They don't bother with floods caused by the antiquated drainage.....)

The main thing I notice about London is that over 90% of British people choose not to live there. When you see what else is on offer - Bath, Aberystwyth, Lllandudno, Edinburgh, Oban, Knaresborough, anywhere in Cornwall, Harrogate, ....well, it's easy to understand why.

Sheffield is pretty cool too. Bristol is great. Lots of fun to be had on the south coast as well.

dktreesea

padington wrote: »

Sheffield is pretty cool too. Bristol is great. Lots of fun to be had on the south coast as well.

Bristol is a pretty attractive place. Not so sure about Sheffield. I wasn't so much thinking of the way of life in places outside of London as being the attraction. More the aesthetically pleasing environment. Plus things it would be hard to control in London, like clean air, or not having to travel for an hour just to get from one side of the capital to the other.

Generali

I enjoy riding in Central London as I treat it like interval training by keeping up with the traffic. When the traffic slows or stops I ride gently but as it gets going I'll wind my pace up to 20-30mph for a short while.

dktreesea

Generali wrote: »

I enjoy riding in Central London as I treat it like interval training by keeping up with the traffic. When the traffic slows or stops I ride gently but as it gets going I'll wind my pace up to 20-30mph for a short while.

I hope you wear a crash helmet. What is it about cyclists with no head gear in Britain? It should be compulsory.

TickersPlaysPop

padington wrote: »

I'm no economist but I think they could use Quantitative easing to keep the house of cards from falling down for a good while yet, Which I suspect they might just keep on doing if necessary.

Which results in asset booms ...

I suspect the way they are going to play this dynamic is by increasing the tax on whatever asset is proving to be anti socially booming, hence the mansion tax etc.

Which is where we are and where I think we will remain for a long time.

As long as a fresh Jenga bottom row of bricks is magicked every now and again from somewhere the game can continue. It will all fall down fairly spectacularly one day but the people that own a house or two (by taking the chance and pulling out a block or two early ) will probably be in a better position than most.

If they feel they can raise the interest rates without too much fall out, they will, but raising interest rates won't be the key goal, it will be to ensure the Jenga game continues.

... And if your not playing it, your paying for it because the 'magic' taxes us all invisibly.

That is quite a cryptic answer.... I am thinking that rates won't rise as quickly or as much as everybody keeps talking about.

At the moment it is even more political than usual due to the general election.... so telling people rates will rise and curb house price rises panders to them.... but we all know house prices influences are more complicated than a solely a simple interest rate.

So I think all this talk is just hype before the election....

dktreesea

TickersPlaysPop wrote: »

That is quite a cryptic answer.... I am thinking that rates won't rise as quickly or as much as everybody keeps talking about.

At the moment it is even more political than usual due to the general election.... so telling people rates will rise and curb house price rises panders to them.... but we all know house prices influences are more complicated than a solely a simple interest rate.

So I think all this talk is just hype before the election....

No government wants to be presiding over a falling housing market, in part because imputed rents, so rents that could be charged, but aren't, on owned houses make up a significant part of the GDP.

danothy

dktreesea wrote: »

I hope you wear a crash helmet. What is it about cyclists with no head gear in Britain? It should be compulsory.

Crash helmets and cycle helmets are quite different things, and part of the invalidity of the assertion that they should be compulsory is based around the convolution or confusion of the functions of the two of them.

cells

dktreesea wrote: »

No government wants to be presiding over a falling housing market, in part because imputed rents, so rents that could be charged, but aren't, on owned houses make up a significant part of the GDP.

Around 18% of GDP

However a house price crash doesn't mean a rent price crash

Also there is nil chance of a house price crash. Ita build 400k homea a year and get 5% hpi or build 150k a year and get 15% hpi