Financial Times "Looks like a bubble ready to burst"

wotsthat

dktreesea wrote: »

There's new "affordable housing" available for rent a mile away from us (so still inner city, close to all amenities etc) up here in Edinburgh. https://hillcrest.org.uk/Northern+Housing/Property+Search/
£770 a month for a 2 bedroom place. They are nice enough flats and the housing association claim they are available for single people earning up to £28k a year and families earning up to £36k a year. Even on £28k a year, is £770 a month on an after tax salary of £1,797 a month really "affordable"? What's "affordable" about having to pay 43% of your after tax income on rent?

Affordable means the rent is only 80% of local market rates rather than being affordable in non-politician speak.

i.e. more affordable than paying 53% of after tax salary.

Presumably these places are occupied so the tenants either prefer living there or can't afford the alternative.

Housing associations must be riding this gravy train for all it's worth. Those flats would only cost about £120k to buy wouldn't they? Nice yield plus they're a registered charity and probably getting a sub off the taxpayer too.

padington

Being able to cycle to the centre of the cultured world from your home fairly easily is a luxury, not a god given right.

With population on the march, all things equal, that luxury will always cost an increasing fortune.

Get used to it.

Thrugelmir

danothy wrote: »

Have we even got to a double dip yet? I thought that the revised figures confirmed that there was no second round of recession.

External events have a nasty habit of providing shocks now the capital markets are so globally interlinked. Ukraine, Middle East look very unstable at the moment.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

External events have a nasty habit of providing shocks now the capital markets are so globally interlinked. Ukraine, Middle East look very unstable at the moment.

There's always potential for recession.

What's a reasonable time period between recessions after which it would be unreasonable to call them a double dip?

LydiaJ

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Does one opinion constitute a consensus these days?

And is there any reason to suppose that any bubble will burst when a consensus says it will?

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

There's always potential for recession.

What's a reasonable time period between recessions after which it would be unreasonable to call them a double dip?

Recessions historically average around every 8 years. Only the period during which boom and bust was abolished was it different. So there's a whole generation who have no comprehension of austere times. In their truest sense.

pbouk

padington wrote: »

Anyone that needs to see what London is capable of just needs to look at 2007 / 2008. The cash points almost stopped working and credit got pulled back right left and centre and London property ... went down a little bit, relatively briefly.

We've seen what happens when the Sh*t hits the fan! Not much.

Labour will rein London in a bit to give to the regions so they can provide London with more brighter minds further down the road. I accept we may have had the best bit of the property sugar rush from the expectation of 5 plus good years to come but I really wouldn't count your chickens that 2018 is going to be any worse than 2008.

I expect by then london will have built that garden bridge and the skyline changed considerably for the better, the film and creative arts industries will be rocking, the uk tech companies making very big waves, city strong, unemployment right down, uk soft power increasing fast and they'll be some talk of London being the best city in the
world ...

... That's my prediction anyway, absence of black swans permitting and if so, not the best background to expect London properties to be tanking.

Not much happened, but the banks were saved in 07/08 but today they would not have the same help as the country is in enough debt today.

padington

pbouk wrote: »

Not much happened, but the banks were saved in 07/08 but today they would not have the same help as the country is in enough debt today.

Really ? Do you think even the next labour government will let the cashpoints stop working? It would be political suicide.

I would have thought that they would effectively print a billion pound note and hand it to the banks and request lots in return.

... And the fashionable assets of the day would eventually boom again and those relying on just their wages and savings to thrive will get hit again.

Thrugelmir

pbouk wrote: »

Not much happened, but the banks were saved in 07/08 but today they would not have the same help as the country is in enough debt today.

Now the banks are stabilised. The focus has switched to household debt. As it's this which poses the biggest threat to the banks.

mobfant

padington wrote: »

Being able to cycle to the centre of the cultured world from your home fairly easily is a luxury, not a god given right.

With population on the march, all things equal, that luxury will always cost an increasing fortune.

Get used to it.

It should be a god given right. Commutes over 40 or so minutes increase stress levels significantly, which in turn have a significant impact on quality of life, and on wider societal priorities such as mental health funding on the NHS, and health-related business costs from increased time off work, lower productivity.

It's in society's wider interest for more property to be available at affordable prices within a reasonable distance of the location work. That London is a such a centre for various professions is yet another argument for improving and expanding housing within a reasonable distance of work

http://www.economist.com/blogs/gulliver/2011/06/perils-commuting