Interest rate rise likely this year

AndyGuil

0.25% has been mentioned on the news this morning. Only very gradual increases over a number of years. Got to remember inflation is very low at the moment.

TheFactory

AndyGuil wrote: »

0.25% has been mentioned on the news this morning. Only very gradual increases over a number of years. Got to remember inflation is very low at the moment.

Bingo, what are the BOE going to do if they raise the rate and see inflation figures dropping? They would look like idiots....

mobfant

No one expected rates to be as low as they are for as long as they have been. It's fine to speculate what'll happen but to take a position either way with any degree of confidence is impossible

wotsthat

mobfant wrote: »

No one expected rates to be as low as they are for as long as they have been. It's fine to speculate what'll happen but to take a position either way with any degree of confidence is impossible

Inflation is low, wage rises are muted despite rapid falls in unemployment, government debt is high, the deficit is proving more stubborn to deal with than the government first thought etc.

It's not speculation to consider it more likely that base rate will be 1% this time next year rather than 3% despite both being a possibility.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Inflation is low, wage rises are muted despite rapid falls in unemployment, government debt is high, the deficit is proving more stubborn to deal with than the government first thought etc.

Hehe. Only 2 days ago all this data, when I chose to rise the issues you have risen was in "two standard deviations of awesomeness". What's more, who was chewing my leg for raising the wage issue? Oh, you

Now theres a rate rise on the cards, you look back to the same data I did

Nice to have you on boards wotsthat

Bantex_2

Anyone who cannot handle a quarter or half percent rise on their mortgage, should never have taken out a mortgage in the first place.

wymondham

Bantex wrote: »

Anyone who cannot handle a quarter or half percent rise on their mortgage, should never have taken out a mortgage in the first place.

... but to be fair, many may not even realise interest rates do actually move!

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hehe. Only 2 days ago all this data, when I chose to rise the issues you have risen was in "two standard deviations of awesomeness". What's more, who was chewing my leg for raising the wage issue? Oh, you

You were trying to imply that the fall in the annualised % wage growth was due to the addition of lower quality jobs -the ONS said this wasn't the case, Clapton did a worked example and Peston provided some data that backed all this up.

The fall in unemployment numbers is great news but despite the explainable statistical blip in wage growth data wage rises are being moderated. This reduces the inflationary pressure and therefore the risk of rates rising.

Thanks for reminding us that you were wrong in the other thread and you can only see the world in black and white.

Bantex_2

wymondham wrote: »

... but to be fair, many may not even realise interest rates do actually move!

Maybe an intelligence test could be part of mortgage applications.

wotsthat

wymondham wrote: »

... but to be fair, many may not even realise interest rates do actually move!

There has been media chatter about rate rises for months. I've seen Carney's speech today on Bloomberg TV, the BBC and ITV. It's covered in every single newspaper and will be mentioned on every Radio news bulletin.

Anyone that by now doesn't realise interest rates can go up probably doesn't have a mortgage unless their carer helped them complete the application form.