Interest rate rise likely this year

Graham_Devon

Direct from Carney himself - or at least his signalling manouvres.

The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has signalled that interest rates may rise this year.

In a keynote speech, Mr Carney said that a rate rise "could happen sooner than markets currently expect".

The consensus among economists was that rates would rise in the first half of next year, or even earlier.

BBC economics editor Robert Peston said that although the comments point to an increase this year, any rise "will be small and gradual".

Robert Pestons blog:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27825647

wotsthat

No chance - I've been reliably informed that there can be no rate rise until after the election.

A rate rise after the election would be proof of political intervention and one before indicative of 'manouvres'.

mobfant

wotsthat wrote: »

No chance - I've been reliably informed that there can be no rate rise until after the election.

A rate rise after the election would be proof of political intervention and one before indicative of 'manouvres'.

So the only time there can possibly be a rate rise is 7 May 2015? Might just work with the MPC schedule I guess. Probably a rate rise to 2.5%, then another on 7 May 2020 to 3.5%

michaels

Would it really be so bad for the tories to see a rate rise before the election - wouldn't it indicate that they had put the economy back on to a more normal footing compared to the disaster area they inherited.

Thrugelmir

QE appears to be working.

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

Would it really be so bad for the tories to see a rate rise before the election - wouldn't it indicate that they had put the economy back on to a more normal footing compared to the disaster area they inherited.

Guess it depends on whether it effects you personally.

Some of those who have just bought a house now face increased rates in 2 years time and a possible declining house price, especially if the rumours are true that the market was cooling off anyway due to reaching a peak. Investors won't be best pleased I guess.

But they might gain some savers, some families who fear for their kids futures etc.

I guess the obvious target now to boost a vote base and replace those disgruntled by the activity to cool the market is to please renters somehow. Steal labours thunder and go for higher levels of regulation in the rental sector.

wotsthat

michaels wrote: »

Would it really be so bad for the tories to see a rate rise before the election - wouldn't it indicate that they had put the economy back on to a more normal footing compared to the disaster area they inherited.

They'll all spin it as necessary..

- emergency rates persist through FULL parliament
- cuddly old folk lose out due to borrowing chancers
- keeping mortgages down for hard working families
- rates heading back to normal in LESS than a full parliament
- it's not or fault - rates were too low for too long due to political interference

It's a pick and mix. Interchangeable between parties and election winners and losers.

Can't see the BoE is under any pressure other than to make the right decision at the right time:)

PasturesNew

Typical, now I'll be moving forward with just about £2k to my name.... s0ddin' typical....

wotsthat

mobfant wrote: »

So the only time there can possibly be a rate rise is 7 May 2015? Might just work with the MPC schedule I guess. Probably a rate rise to 2.5%, then another on 7 May 2020 to 3.5%

The 7th May would be seen as using the election to bury bad news.

Ronaldo_Mconaldo

wotsthat wrote: »

They'll all spin it as necessary..

- emergency rates persist through FULL parliament
- cuddly old folk lose out due to borrowing chancers
- keeping mortgages down for hard working families
- rates heading back to normal in LESS than a full parliament
- it's not or fault - rates were too low for too long due to political interference

It's a pick and mix. Interchangeable between parties and election winners and losers.

Can't see the BoE is under any pressure other than to make the right decision at the right time:)

Not to mention that we'll have to put up with hearing about the "cost of living crisis" until the cows come home.

purch

Mark Carney is the Governor of the Bank, and therefore a Central Banker

What he said in his Mansion House speech was not a "hint" as has been reported. When a Central Banker say's what he did, it means that it WILL happen, unless something dramatic occurs to reverse the situation.