London madness

TrixA

cells wrote: »

It is not speculation

London is a very rare exampe of a city which saw a rapid depopulation (1951-1991 the population shrank by 1.25 million) during a period of good build rate (some 1 million more homes were built in London during 1951-1991)

that then followed by a massive increase in population (1991-2014 population up by 1.5 million) during a period of not enough built.

Interesting, I didn't know that. What I meant by speculation is that many people in London (and the UK as a whole, actually) see buying houses and watching the value rise as their ticket to riches, rather than earning a decent salary, starting a business etc.

cells

TrixA wrote: »

Thanks. We looked at a few places in Dalston a while back but didn't find it especially affordable then. Will check out some of the others.

Dalston is more expensive than Walthamstow

Land Reg average price for April 2014

Waltham Forest £323k
Hackney £540k


You really need to go further out if you want a bigger nicer house, be it north towards Enfield or East towards Daginham. But the tradeoff is that you will have a longer commute which imo isnt worth it. You are better off in a smaller house in Walthamstow or Hackney than a bigger house in Enfield/Daginham with a 3 hour headache commute each working day

CLAPTON

cells wrote: »

can you clarify? is there some sort of stat for that you are alluding to?

my experience has been the complete opposite having lived in and out of London

In london it takes me close to 3 hours. and a LOT LONGER if there are roadworks or accidents

Having lived also in five other cities/towns in the UK with varying distances of travel it has never taken me more than 30 minutes to get to and from work

are you serious?

I was referring to people that live in London and not people who commute to work


many Londoners socialise with work colleagues or friends after work (no need to drive), play sport or partake in other activities because you can do virtually any activity in London you want.

outside London many people drive long distances to work because good jobs are few are far between and many people are reluctant to move.

cells

TrixA wrote: »

Interesting, I didn't know that. What I meant by speculation is that many people in London (and the UK as a whole, actually) see buying houses and watching the value rise as their ticket to riches, rather than earning a decent salary, starting a business etc.

I dont think many people think buying houses is the ricker to riches becuase not many people own more than 1 house. Only around 1 million families own multiple homes and truely benifit from HPI the rest do not gain much at all or lose out

The real problem is that the UK builds far too few homes.
Over the last 5 years in France they have been building on average 400k new homes a year. Over the last 5 years in the UK we have been building on average about 120k new homes a year.

Both countries have virtually the same population, same population growth, same GDP, same building materals same labour costs etc yet one is building sufficent supply the other is not.

It is sadly why you will likely have to live in a 60sqm flat while a french couple on a lower wage will be able to afford a 150sqm detached house


but there is nothing you or I can do about it.
You just have to try and make the best of it and accept that the house you can afford to buy is smaller than you like


your real problem will start if you have kids and come age 5 or so you need to make a decision. the more rough schools of london or the generally better schools elsewhere

TrixA

cells wrote: »

Dalston is more expensive than Walthamstow

Land Reg average price for April 2014

Waltham Forest £323k
Hackney £540k


You really need to go further out if you want a bigger nicer house, be it north towards Enfield or East towards Daginham. But the tradeoff is that you will have a longer commute which imo isnt worth it. You are better off in a smaller house in Walthamstow or Hackney than a bigger house in Enfield/Daginham with a 3 hour headache commute each working day

That's the conclusion I had come to too. I would be perfectly happy with a small house in Walthamstow, but small houses in Walthamstow within reasonable proximity of the tube are now £500k+. A year ago they were in the £350-400k range.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

are you serious?

I was referring to people that live in London and not people who commute to work


many Londoners socialise with work colleagues or friends after work (no need to drive), play sport or partake in other activities because you can do virtually any activity in London you want.

outside London many people drive long distances to work because good jobs are few are far between and many people are reluctant to move.

i think we have lost each other somewhere

Ive lived in London most my life and still do about half the year.

In all that time i've never worked close enough to my home so as not to commute. For instance Ive had to commute from Hackney to Harrow both in London and it used to take 1.5hours in the morning and 1 hour in the late evening if i were lucky. If I wasnt then you could add another hour to 3 hours more if there was roadworks etc.

I also used to do walthamstow to kensington and back. Again 1 to 1.5 hours door to door.

Moving around in London was a long time consuming task.

Even as a child I used to do Hackney to Walthamstow to go to school and it used to take the best part of an hour.


Its never taken me as long to commute from and to work in other towns as it does in london

cells

TrixA wrote: »

That's the conclusion I had come to too. I would be perfectly happy with a small house in Walthamstow, but small houses in Walthamstow within reasonable proximity of the tube are now £500k+. A year ago they were in the £350-400k range.

The problem is there are too many who want to live in London and too few additional homes.

Some 100,000 more people will make London their home this year, while the housing stock barely expands

The best advice is simply to buy as quickly as you can before another 100,000 people come and make London their home and face the same problems and concerns you now are

michaels

20 minutes train into St P but expensive, 3 bed terrace 5 min to station with small garden for about 400k, very good schools, trains till latish (1AM) but taxi a fortune after that.

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

many Londoners socialise with work colleagues or friends after work (no need to drive), play sport or partake in other activities because you can do virtually any activity in London you want.

This may come as a shock to you
but
Socialising and sports facilities and partaking in other acitivityes exist outside of London too

CLAPTON wrote: »

outside London many people drive long distances to work because good jobs are few are far between and many people are reluctant to move.

The distances may be Long in comparision but the time is important and that is short, I used to do 15 miles each way to work and back when I lived in the NE. It took no more than 15 mins each way. I used to do the same 15 miles from east to west London and it used to take on average about 90 mins!

"good jobs are few are far between"

well I cant quite say if that is true or not as "good" is hard to define BUT
London has not a much lower unemployment than most the other regions so the number of jobs for those who want a job seems to be about the same.

Median wages are indeed higher I think by some 6k gross which falls to some 3-4k net after taxes.

So you are indeed some £60-80 per week better off in take home income but for that you get worse air, longer commuting times, worse schools, higher crime, higher prices.

padington

Another thing to consider is that because of the economic pull of London some communities are prepared to share the cost of a 2 bed house 6 ways. Whole families in one bedroom and a family in the front room. I've got it three doors down. People are prepared to live like this for the work and to be near the action.

The old industrial era together with its pull towards regional factories has gone. Without those factories pulling people out to places like hull, the trend is to huddle together. We're a social species.

This isn't a Londom thing, the meta trend is a massive pull towards all the giant cities right a cross the world. This is partly the ramifications of digital age. We want to surf anonymously online with far away strangers but we want loads of friends and possible future friends right on our doorstep or as close as possible.

On top Londom does have the safe haven status / property as a currency thing going on, which every government that's knows which side it's bread is buttered will desperately want to keep going.

So I wouldn't expect much to change apart from a fluctuation of prices as is normal in a one way long term bull market.

Whilst I expect an inevitable dip, I equally think it may be shallow and relatively fleeting and in the long term I expect things to get sillier, much sillier for here on in.

I predict very close to double again before 2020 and the notion of any single couple buying a house in London just from a 50k deposit and a good mortgage, a long gone pipe dream.

The time will come when only very rich families with large reserves or whole groups of friends clubbing together will get to enjoy the privilege of ever buying another freehold (for eternity) house in the worlds most fashionable city.