2X£1,000,000 Pulling out of Premium Bonds

eskbanker

ColdIron wrote: »

Considerably higher than the average. The PB calculator predicts that on £1,500 you would win £25 over 2 years so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect no more wins in the next 5 years as the odds revert to mean

www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds-calculator

pat_cashmoney wrote: »

Except the odds haven't changed just because they won 3 times in 8 months. They are still likely to win £25 over the next 2 years.

As Pat says, the statistical odds don't change, much like if you toss a coin 100 times and get heads every time, the odds of heads on the 101st time are still exactly 50/50 (assuming a fair coin!)

junglejame911

ColdIron wrote: »

Considerably higher than the average. The PB calculator predicts that on £1,500 you would win £25 over 2 years so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect no more wins in the next 5 years as the odds revert to mean

Nope. Fundamental misunderstanding of chance. Odds don't change.

EDIT Sorry - just realised there is a second page to this thread and other posters have pointed this out also. . .

ColdIron

Yup, I am aware that previous outcomes have no bearing on future ones but the point I was trying to make, perhaps badly expressed, is that over time you can expect the return to normalise towards the mean. Also you could just as easily get a run of bad luck as a good