estimate gcse results based on ks3 results

patchwork_cat

Hi
I have heard that it is common to estimate GCSE results based on a students performance at KS3, but I can't find any data. I know that this is used to work out value added and I must just not be searching with the correct key words. Can someone let me know or point me in the right direction, please

studentphil

Level 5--- C or D grade
level 6--- C or B grade
level 7--- B or A grade
Level 8--- A or A* grade

gregg1

studentphil wrote: »

Level 5--- C or D grade
level 6--- C or B grade
level 7--- B or A grade
Level 8--- A or A* grade

It is not quite that simple.

If you get a certain level by the end of KS3 then you will "statistically" go on to a certan grade by the end of KS4. Level 5 at KS3 gives a 25% chance of GCSE (grade C or above). This increases to 75% for a level 6 and if you get a level 7 at the end of KS3 you are virtually certain to get C grade or above. This is however only a statistical figure. There is no definite link with these things. It is all about the individual. there are no certainties.

Kimitatsu

I have to say that knowing people who marke both KS3 and GCSE papers they say that they can see the students who will do well at GCSE, and they are usually the ones which come out with and average SATS mark!

Both papers are looking for different things, SATS for a basic undersatnding and GCSE for an ability to take the subject further, and show the thought process.

cheepskate_2

i wouldnt go to much with the stats . my son is terrible in class and at prelims gets one of the lowest marks 5's , yet come the actual exam he gets one of the highest marks 2/1's.
They can just do the best they can.

studentphil

gregg1 wrote: »

It is not quite that simple.

If you get a certain level by the end of KS3 then you will "statistically" go on to a certan grade by the end of KS4. Level 5 at KS3 gives a 25% chance of GCSE (grade C or above). This increases to 75% for a level 6 and if you get a level 7 at the end of KS3 you are virtually certain to get C grade or above. This is however only a statistical figure. There is no definite link with these things. It is all about the individual. there are no certainties.

As a rough guide those patterns are fine. But it is cerrtainly true there is no link and a lot can happen in 2 years.

littlemissmoney

studentphil wrote: »

Level 5--- C or D grade
level 6--- C or B grade
level 7--- B or A grade
Level 8--- A or A* grade

Hmm. I got a 5, 6, 6 in my SATS and went on to get A's and A*'s in my GCSEs. I think SATs tell you very little indeed.

MattB_4

I think, unless things have changed in the last 10 years, I scored very much in the level 5's almost across the board! Only to come out with a mixture of A*-B at GCSE. I wouldn't be trying to convert these into something they aren't in all honesty.

Fizog

My son's school guestimates that a level 6 will guarantee a C pass, hormones and lurve permitting a lot can happen between year 9 and year 11!

Savvy_Sue

I think my sons' school does a combination of SATS and YELIS or something similar. But I'm with Fizog, you never know what's going to happen between year 9 and year 11! I'm due to get some 'end of year 10' predictions soon, and then there'll be mocks in January! Hopefully between them DS3 will be sufficiently scared to Do Some Work! :rotfl:

Just wondering why you want to know, anyway?

gregg1

studentphil wrote: »

As a rough guide those patterns are fine. But it is cerrtainly true there is no link and a lot can happen in 2 years.

Sorry but there is a link although, as I said, they are statistical figures.