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Thoughts on the following solar panels quote

24

Comments

  • zeupater
    zeupater Posts: 5,391 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 10 April 2014 at 12:50PM
    nigelpm wrote: »
    It does but then so does everything else.

    To keep the cashflows simple I always assumed that everything stays the same i.e. FIT, energy prices and cost of money.

    If you increase your FITs you also need to reduce incoming cashflows by interest rates each year.
    Agree ... people can complicate the issue as much as they want, but at the end of the day, if inflation has reduced the value of money by x% and the inflationary change in FiTs increases the tariff by the same percentage, everything cancels out .... so why use anything other than a current cost basis ?

    Energy costs have recently been going through a period of instability, resulting in the massive increases above the official inflation figures, but historically prices have been a lot more stable, so a guess on what future prices would be is just that, a guess ... it's probably safer to not rely on large increases in prices as a basis for calculating future annual energy savings in order to justify investment either ....

    If the calculation doesn't work on a 'current cost basis', then it's pretty marginal whether any other method would provide a safe alternative ...

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    B)
  • Black20VT
    Black20VT Posts: 27 Forumite
    edited 10 April 2014 at 5:37PM
    Here's the ROI calc;

    FIT = 3,176.00 kWh x 14.38p = £456.71
    Export = 1,588.00 kWh x 4.77p = £75.75
    Energy Used = 2,350.24 kWh x 15.32p = £360.06
    Total Annual Savings = £892.52
    ROI = 9.24%
    Pay Back Year = 7
    20 Years Beneift = £43,793.00
  • Black20VT
    Black20VT Posts: 27 Forumite
    edited 10 April 2014 at 5:21PM
    tunnel wrote: »
    As your only 10 degrees off a direct E/W split i'd be inclined to look at your usage before ruling anything out. Do you have someone in the house all day or would you be looking to make the most of the evenings. A split would give you a much wider generation curve, all depends on your own personal use.
    This was the thing I was saying to the 'sales rep'. Although the house is always occupied, the evenings are going to be a bigger draw as kids come home, fire up games consoles etc, cooking...
    tunnel wrote: »
    You do need to shop around, that's for sure. Can i ask if it was a national company that quoted your sky high price?
    It was indeed a National, but not sure if we can name on here, so will play the safety first card.
  • Black20VT
    Black20VT Posts: 27 Forumite
    nigelpm wrote: »
    We're in Swindon

    Let me know if you want a recommendation - I'm not that far away.
    Always open for recommendations! Fire away!
  • Martyn1981
    Martyn1981 Posts: 15,515 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    Black20VT wrote: »
    Here's the ROI calc;

    FIT = 3,176.00 kWh x 14.38p = £456.71
    FIT = 1,588.00 kWh x 4.77p = £75.75
    FIT = 2,350.24 kWh x 15.32p = £360.06
    Total Annual Savings = £892.52
    ROI = 9.24%
    Pay Back Year = 7
    20 Years Beneift = £43,793.00

    Hiya, what is line 3 ..... FIT = 2,350.24 kWh x 15.32p = £360.06?

    Is that leccy savings?

    If so, then no way, no chance, nope nope nope unless your house is all electric ..... is it?

    I'd suggest leccy savings of about £120 in the range of £80 to £160. If always occupied and kids then you may be at the upper end, even a little higher, just, but you won't save £360.

    Best to play safe on the numbers, just to make sure your decision/investment is sound. Then if you do better, great, a bonus.

    Mart.
    Mart. Cardiff. 8.72 kWp PV systems (2.12 SSW 4.6 ESE & 2.0 WNW). 28kWh battery storage. Two A2A units for cleaner heating. Two BEV's for cleaner driving.

    For general PV advice please see the PV FAQ thread on the Green & Ethical Board.
  • Black20VT
    Black20VT Posts: 27 Forumite
    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    Hiya, what is line 3
    Apologies. That is electric savings. I've updated the original. That'll teach me to cheat with copy and pasting each line ;)
    Martyn1981 wrote: »
    If so, then no way, no chance, nope nope nope unless your house is all electric ..... is it?
    We gave him a figure of £130 a month for dual fuel.
  • Black20VT
    Black20VT Posts: 27 Forumite
    Black20VT wrote: »
    We gave him a figure of £130 a month for dual fuel.
    Just to be more accurate, since 02/05/2013, our average daily usage for electricity has been 19.3 kWh. :mad: :(
  • Far too dear average system should be around £6k
  • zeupater
    zeupater Posts: 5,391 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Name Dropper Combo Breaker
    edited 10 April 2014 at 6:07PM
    Black20VT wrote: »
    Here's the ROI calc;

    FIT = 3,176.00 kWh x 14.38p = £456.71
    FIT = 1,588.00 kWh x 4.77p = £75.75
    FIT = 2,350.24 kWh x 15.32p = £360.06
    Total Annual Savings = £892.52
    ROI = 9.24%
    Pay Back Year = 7
    20 Years Beneift = £43,793.00
    Hi

    Looks like a typo to me, probably from re-cycling a previous quote ... the 456.71+75.75 looks to be your system, with the £360.06 being old/rogue data from a previous quote on a smaller system (note that it doesn't include the 50% deemed export value on this either !)

    Total annual savings should therefore be £532.46 .... 9664/532.46 = 18years payback, a ROI (on their calculation basis) of 5.5% ...

    I would suggest that you use the confusion in their figures and such a high price to get them to double-check their quotation .... of course, letting them know that the price seems to be very high when compared to what you've seen mentioned elsewhere ....

    HTH
    Z
    "We are what we repeatedly do, excellence then is not an act, but a habit. " ...... Aristotle
    B)
  • Black20VT
    Black20VT Posts: 27 Forumite
    zeupater wrote: »
    Looks like a typo to me, probably from re-cycling a previous quote ... the 456.71+75.75 looks to be your system, with the £360.06 being old/rogue data from a previous quote
    Sorry, was a typo by me, but fixed a short while ago, but obviously after you'd quoted the text.

    The £360.06 is based on how much energy they think we'd use...
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