Property: Supply and Demand in Northern Ireland

motorguy

tara747 wrote: »

55,000 vacant properties and we're building 8,500 a year? I'd say the supply side is holding up all right.

I would say the wrong type of properties in the wrong location.

Where i see most empty properties are old terraced houses that would need a fortune spent to get them up to spec.

A.L.D.A

Mistral001 wrote: »

I suspect many of those 35,000 have very minor defects which might make offcialdom class them as unfit, such as a leaky gutter causing dampness, a broken boiler, or a toilet that will not flush etc. Perhaps one could address a lot of the problems with a spanner and a some sealant!! Call me a cynic or what?

I think optimist would be a better word. It will be houses that have structural problems, damp issues and lacking some of the basic amenities like a bathroom or kitchen. Most I have seen need a fair expenditure to upgrade to modern standards.

A.L.D.A

tara747 wrote: »

55,000 vacant properties and we're building 8,500 a year? I'd say the supply side is holding up all right.

8500 is historically a low figure and unless population has stopped increasing will mean we have to get more of the empty houses back into use. Also we tend to have over optimistic expectations regarding vacant houses. Often they are vacant for good reason, old, in poor repair, and where there is no housing demand, people on short term contracts abroad, owned by people in the military posted abroad, probate issues, owned by elderly in nursing care, and most significantly owned by a government body for road widening, redevelopment etc.

Just come back from looking at some listed buildings that are falling into disrepair as the cost of fixing in the manner required is prohibitive. There are a lot of reasons for buildings being vacant.

marathonic

I believe there are 750,000 or so houses in Northern Ireland.

Let's say that, after every 150 years, a house is no longer classed as an active household, either by being left in a dilapidated state never to be lived in again or by tumbling and building a new dwelling in it's place. That would mean that we'd need 5,000 new builds every year just to replace them.

Of course, the figures might be different but it's not just as simple as 8,500 new builds per year means that there are 8,500 new households in Northern Ireland per year.

Regarding population increases, Northern Ireland's population increased by 7.5% between 2001 and 2011. Assuming the average numbers per household remained the same, a similar increase would require 5,625 houses per year to be built to satify the demand imposed by increase in population.

So, as you can see, we are far from a case of "supply being met".

A.L.D.A

Table 216 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/live-tables-on-house-building

Starts seem to be less than completions.

Old_Git

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26389009

In Northern Ireland , 68,000 homeowners - or 41% of borrowers- were in negative equity at the end of last year.

Cotta

Are houses selling again in NI? I still see a fair few that have been on the market for quite some time.

marathonic

Cotta wrote: »

Are houses selling again in NI? I still see a fair few that have been on the market for quite some time.

They are indeed. You can view the transaction numbers in the following report:

http://www.dfpni.gov.uk/lps/ni_rppi_statistical_report_q4_2013.docx


Transactions rose by 21% in 2012 when compared to 2011 and a further 19% in 2013 when compared to 2012. The final quarter of 2013 actually had 28% more transactions than the final quarter of 2012.

We're obviously nowhere near 2006/7 levels of transactions - but those levels of transactions can hardly be seen as normal either so they're not really something we need to aspire to.

A lot of the older properties that you see on PropertyPal are properties added 3-4 years ago at prices that may have been overpriced slightly then and are DEFINATELY overpriced today.

Cotta

Put in a bid of 94% of the asking price for a house in Belfast and had it declined even though the house has been on the market for quite some time.

ballyblack

and had it declined

obviously the owner doesn't need to move or get the money quickly so is waiting for the market to move up, which it will eventually.




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