Eligability checker tool - wrong

redcard

Cash_Flow wrote: »

I don't think this is correct.

Whilst the OP was declined with 90% chance of acceptance, if another 9 people apply with the same 90% chance of being accepted what's to stop 3 or 4 of those applications failing the credit check on the same bases as the OP?

Are you being serious?

aleph_0

Cash_Flow wrote: »

I don't think this is correct.

Whilst the OP was declined with 90% chance of acceptance, if another 9 people apply with the same 90% chance of being accepted what's to stop 3 or 4 of those applications failing the credit check on the same bases as the OP?

True. And if I throw 10 coins, with a 50% chance of heads, it's quite possible I get 8 heads. But it does mean that long term, 1 in 2 throws are heads.

Similarly, 90% chance of acceptance means if you had a large group of people 'similar' to the OP, roughly 90%, or 9 in 10, would be accepted; and roughly 1 in every 10 rejected. Which is why pharmo said that 1 in 10 will be rejected.

Cash_Flow

fuzzything wrote: »

I would be interested to learn what you do think is correct :huh:

I don't know any more my brain hurts;)

fuzzything wrote: »

To properly test a statistic requires 1000's of applicants to apply with similar credit reports. Yes, the all the next 5, or even next 9 people could also be declined, but then 500 more people could be accepted all in a row.

The point is you are not guaranteed to be accepted if your chance of acceptance is 90%.

I agree in part.

What I do not agree with is 90% chance of acceptance does not mean only 1 in 10 will be declined.

There is too many variables for that to be the case - one of them being that HD Decisions use Callcredit where as most Lenders use Experian.

"HD Decisions has been around for a few years, and regularly checks its predicted approval rates against the actual amount of people accepted when they apply. On the testing it's done, these two match up well.
The accuracy varies between credit card companies, and can be improved by more people using the tool."

Further more every check costs HD Decisions money, it is in there interests that you go on to apply for a credit card, if you don't apply they don't get an affiliate money from Barclaycard etc etc.

redcard

Cash_Flow wrote: »

I don't know any more my brain hurts;)




I agree in part.

What I do not agree with is 90% chance of acceptance does not mean only 1 in 10 will be declined.

There is too many variables for that to be the case - one of them being that HD Decisions use Callcredit where as most Lenders use Experian.

"HD Decisions has been around for a few years, and regularly checks its predicted approval rates against the actual amount of people accepted when they apply. On the testing it's done, these two match up well.
The accuracy varies between credit card companies, and can be improved by more people using the tool."

Further more every check costs HD Decisions money, it is in there interests that you go on to apply for a credit card, if you don't apply they don't get an affiliate money from Barclaycard etc etc.

90% does mean 1 in 10 will not be accepted. It's simple statistics. You can't really argue with them, to be fair.

Taking into account all the variables, 90% will be accepted. Geddit?

If they're being dishonest about their 90% success rate then that's a different matter

Cash_Flow

redcard wrote: »

90% does mean 1 in 10 will not be accepted. It's simple statistics. You can't really argue with them, to be fair.

Taking into account all the variables, 90% will be accepted. Geddit?

If they're being dishonest about their 90% success rate then that's a different matter

No I don't Redcard.

How can they take into account the variables if they don't know why you have been declined.

It's not like they see the score card.