Premium Bonds - Odds of winning

Garnet_Gem

I bought a £100 bond and won £50 the first month it was entered in the draw. I've left it in but won't grumble if I don't win anything else. It's nice to feel that there's a (tiny) chance of becoming a millionaire without buying a lottery ticket.

Stompa

McSaver wrote: »

I hold £1,000 i worked out that i should win a prize on average every 2 years but i still havent won and i have nearly had my bonds 2 years.

I've held a similar amount for about 15 years - total return £400, which equates to about 2.8%.

Browntrout_2

Did you know - You are statistically seven times more likely to drown in your bath than win the big prize.

I think the average return is closer to 2.8%

Really a lot better off with a good holiday, Florida here we come!

:rotfl:


PS - 50% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

M3_Sussex

I won £10,250 this month, so it does happen

I have held the full amount for five years and this is the first win over £100 I've had. I generally average about £1000 per year. So to me, it's been worth it but I realise I'm in the minority.

This was my post when I found out I'd won.

Browntrout_2

M3_Sussex wrote: »

I won £10,250 this month, so it does happen

I have held the full amount for five years and this is the first win over £100 I've had. I generally average about £1000 per year. So to me, it's been worth it but I realise I'm in the minority.

This was my post when I found out I'd won.

Not bad, you have done better than most.

£30,000 over 60 months returning approx £45,000

By my calculations that is a 8.14% annual tax free compound return.

However an investment in a fund which matched the FTSE Allshare would have returned £48,900 over the last five (admittedly mostly good) years.

There are over 240 funds available in the UK All Companies sector, the best returning 188.8% the worst 14.6% over the five years, reference - http://citywire.co.uk/Funds/Home.aspx

ksrao

Myself and my DW have full amounts for the past 7months hoping to win multiple jackpots.Have not won even a 50 so we are going to remove the fund and find an useful place like Northern Rock.

M3_Sussex

Browntrout wrote: »

Not bad, you have done better than most.

£30,000 over 60 months returning approx £45,000

By my calculations that is a 8.14% annual tax free compound return.

However an investment in a fund which matched the FTSE Allshare would have returned £48,900 over the last five (admittedly mostly good) years.

Not quite (pedantic mode on ). I held only £20K until May 2003 when the amount was raised to £30K, so I guess this will skew this calculation downwards.

I know the sensible thing to do with this money is to invest it but I like the 'hope' aspect every month. I'm also fortunate in having other investments so I have the best of both worlds.

M3_Sussex

ksrao wrote: »

Myself and my DW have full amounts for the past 7months hoping to win multiple jackpots.Have not won even a 50 so we are going to remove the fund and find an useful place like Northern Rock.

You must be the unluckiest couple going. If you've held £60K between you for seven months then on average you should have won about 17 prizes.

MILLWALLFC

so if you had the full holding does that mean you just times everything by 3?

e.g. your chances of winning £50 are 112.2% ?

masonic wrote: »

The odds can be found here http://www.nsandi.com/products/pb/rates.jsp

At 24000 to 1 per bond of winning a prize, the chances of winning each prize, say, for a £10k holding per draw are:-

£1,000,000 0.000056%
£100,000 0.000846%
£50,000 0.00166%
£25,000 0.00333%
£10,000 0.00838%
£5,000 0.0167%
£1,000 0.190%
£500 0.570%
£100 3.46%
£50 37.4%

So that makes your expected winnings per month £31.70, which equates to an interest rate of 3.8%, just as stated.

martwise

I think wall shares would be a lot better investment:beer: