Housing-A history of Britain in numbers.....

the_flying_pig

the other thing, H, about your reply to that lilico article [if that's what you're referring to here], was that, well, i just didn't get it.

lilico's little graphs were comparing the number of households [not people] versus the number of houses.

so an estate agent blithering 'but... but.. what about households getting smaller over time [and for good measure, in case that didn't hit the spot, also arguing that they were getting bigger because of HMOs]', well, i just failed to see why this mattered at all.

Generali

So Dundee used literally to be a sh!thole whereas now it only is metaphorically.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

i just didn't get it.

I know.

You almost never do.:o

Lets see what Shelter have to say.....

England is now delivering fewer homes than in any peacetime year since the First World War, even before accounting for a much larger population and smaller households. As a result, the country faces a large and accumulating shortfall between the homes we need and the houses we are building – of approximately 100,000 to 150,000 homes a year. If we remain building at current levels, we build a million fewer homes than we need every seven years.

Now, I know, Shelter have a VI and that text almost certainly wasn't written by a 'proper' economist.

So lets move on....

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation are pretty well respected, and certainly less political than Shelter.

What do they have to say?

Britain is heading for a property shortage of more than a million homes by 2022 unless the current rate of housebuilding is dramatically increased, according to reports from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF). The evidence, being presented at the Foundation’s Centenary Housing Conference in London, reveals that the supply of housing is already falling behind demand faster than previously recognised.

Lord Best, Director of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and author of the working paper, said: “We estimate that the difference between housing demand and supply will have widened into a yawning gap of 1.1 million homes in England alone by 2022: most of it in London and the South East. This genuinely shocking statistic shows why the time has come for policy makers to recognise that a plentiful supply of new and affordable homes is of the greatest importance the nation’s future health and prosperity.”

Ouch.

Looks like Lillico is starting to be in, well, a 'minority of one'.

So what is the mainstream analysis of that Census data he quotes?

According to the census, the number of households in England and Wales was 23.4 million in 2011, an increase of 1.7 million since 2001.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), which released the data, said that the 7.5 per cent growth was the second-lowest increase in 100 years.

The figures came as the population of England and Wales saw its biggest surge since records began.

According to the ONS, the population of England and Wales grew by 4 million to 56.1 million in the decade to 2011.

Kay Boycott, director of policy and campaigns at Shelter, the housing charity, said that not enough houses are being built to cope with the demands of the growing population.

She added that high rents are deterring young people from leaving their parents’ home.

Ooops.

Sounds like a housing shortage to me.

I wonder what others are thinking?

John Marais, of campaign group Defend Council Housing, said that there is a housing shortage across the UK, including in cities like Cambridge, where he lives.

“Even without the increase in population there is a drastic shortage of genuinely affordable housing. It’s the failure of governments past and present to build genuinely affordable houses.

“If there had been a reasonable rate of building houses we would be in a position where we could cope with these sorts of population rises,” said Mr Marais.

And....

Recent research by the ONS found that between 1997 and 2011 there was a 20 per cent increase in the number of 20 to 34 years olds living with their parents. It said that last year there were 3 million 20-34 year-olds living with a parent or parents, an increase of 500,000 on 1997.

The ONS said that the growth in the number of households between 2001 and 2011 was “the second lowest percentage increase in households found between censuses in the last 100 years”.

It said that typically the growth in households is between 8 per cent and 17 per cent. Only the period between 1991 and 2001 showed lower growth, the ONS said.

Weird.....

Why it's almost as if people are being forced to live with their parents or in HMO-s as there simply aren't enough houses to go around.

I don't suppose that massive shortage of housing could also be responsible for the significant increase in prices?

Basic supply and demand theory, but of course that couldn't possibly be correct as Andrew Lillico said it wasn't so.....

Right?

Loughton_Monkey

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

.......

Lets see what Shelter have to say.....

No Hamish!

Let's not see what Shelter have to say. I have never, in my life, known a worse raving left wing, pinko, namby-pamby, socialist, lobbying, chip-on-shoulder, whinging, vested-interest, high-minded, bigoted, so-called "charity".

They have absolutely nothing more to add to the housing debate than Pol Pot had to add to human rights, free speech, and tolerance.

Generali

The near impossibility of building homes and businesses in SE England is the single biggest drag on the British economy. It is utterly ridiculous when the solution is so simple.

The idiot that invented the Town and Country Planning Act should be posthumously ridiculed: his portrait should be on the floor of every public toilet in the land.

Every town and large village within say 30 minutes drive of the M25 should be expected to find land and give planning permission to build a couple of streets of 3 & 4 bed houses, perhaps 80 houses in all, and on top of that a street with a terrace of 2 bedders.

Given the state of the housing markets in Spain and Ireland, finding builders willing and able to go to the UK to build shouldn't be hard. The land could be bought from a local farmer in a Dutch Auction.

ETA: Great spot BTW, thoroughly enjoying the series.

ukcarper

Generali wrote: »

The near impossibility of building homes and businesses in SE England is the single biggest drag on the British economy. It is utterly ridiculous when the solution is so simple.

The idiot that invented the Town and Country Planning Act should be posthumously ridiculed: his portrait should be on the floor of every public toilet in the land.

Every town and large village within say 30 minutes drive of the M25 should be expected to find land and give planning permission to build a couple of streets of 3 & 4 bed houses, perhaps 80 houses in all, and on top of that a street with a terrace of 2 bedders.

Given the state of the housing markets in Spain and Ireland, finding builders willing and able to go to the UK to build shouldn't be hard. The land could be bought from a local farmer in a Dutch Auction.

ETA: Great spot BTW, thoroughly enjoying the series.

We are about that distance from M25 planning permission has just been granted to over 4000 properties

From what I can see it's not the towns that are the problem in my area there has been plenty of building in the towns and more is planned, it's the upmarket villages where there has not been much development.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

the_flying_pig wrote: »

i just failed to see why this mattered at all.

FT reporting on the housing shortage now as well.....

The number of households in England is set to rise by a fifth in the next 20 years to 27m, creating massive demand for new homes which is unlikely to be met, according to the first long-term projections based on data from the last census....

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3547581a-194a-11e3-83b9-00144feab7de.html#ixzz2lVtuQTmK

Still....

I'm sure there must be at least one Oxford educated housing shortage denier out there.

So the literally 100's and 100's of media reports, economists, government agencies, charities, etc, who are in near universal agreement that there is, in fact, a severe housing shortage bordering on a housing crisis in the UK must be wrong.

Obviously.

cells

ukcarper wrote: »

We are about that distance from M25 planning permission has just been granted to over 4000 properties

From what I can see it's not the towns that are the problem in my area there has been plenty of building in the towns and more is planned, it's the upmarket villages where there has not been much development.

I would wager you are wrong, vast majority of towns and cities and villeges have failed to provide enough for demand

An area would have to build aprox 15% of its stock per decade. So if your town has >15% of the houses build just in the last 10 years it is pulling its weight.

Actually it has to do more than that as there are areas which can not fit any more in so the rest need to make up for it. eg inner london which is already high density flats with no spare land to add to.

cells

If the UK has as many homes as....
France has per capita we would have 2.2 million more homes,
Germany has per capita we would have 4.4 million more homes.

If the UK built at the same level per capita as france has been doing for a decade we would be building 4 million homes over the next 10 years. Instead it is more likely we will build 1.5 million homes.

So rather than trying to catch up to the 2-4 million shortgage that already exists, the uk will instead go to a 4-6 million shortgage within a decade

Loughton_Monkey

Generali wrote: »

.......

Every town and large village within say 30 minutes drive of the M25 should be expected to find land and give planning permission to build a couple of streets of 3 & 4 bed houses, perhaps 80 houses in all, and on top of that a street with a terrace of 2 bedders.......

Chicken-feed.

In nearby Chigwell [home of the footballers] the council wants to build 1,250 homes but the residents aren't having it!

http://www.guardian-series.co.uk/news/10031391.New_homes_protesters_determined_to_keep_fighting/

I must say it's totally inappropriate for such a small parish - already paralysed by traffic. The development would increase the population by around 25%. That's bad enough, but with the current rules on 'affordable homes' it would increase the 'pleb count' to intolerable levels!

Rich footballers (and their WAGS) do not sink £3 million into a cosy home, only to bump into single parent mothers or burger flippers while having a quiet spritzer in the King William!