LAND REGISTRY data finally shows FALLS in House Prices

dannyboycey

phlash wrote: »

1) House prices rise, interest rates stay low........Jump for joy
2) House prices rise, interest rates go high.........Forced to sell at profit
3) House prices fall, interest rates stay low........Cannot move, keep house
4) House prices fall, interest rates go high.........Bankruptcy

Unfortunately, the majority of people can only see option 1 and 2 and are going to get their fingers burnt. People should have at least a very basic understanding of how interest rates and inflation affect the market before committing to the responsibility of a huge debt.

Estate agents talk a lot of absolute rubbish and paint a rosey picture of everything. Well they would wouldn't they? Their profits depend on it. The sad thing is that people believe them. For first tme buyers, this could be a really costly mistake and I feel for them. On the other hand, I have less sympathy for the have a go buy to letters, as their judgement is mostly clouded by greed and the belief that they are somehow going to be the next Donald Trump. There are so many of them propping up a market which is literally hanging by a thread that I believe a major correction or crash is imminent... or perhaps already underway. As fixed rate deals come to an end and BTL'ters decide that p***ing money up the wall by subsidising rents isn't too clever it will all come tumbling down. Just don't say you weren't warned.

brasso

phlash wrote: »

1) House prices rise, interest rates stay low........Jump for joy
2) House prices rise, interest rates go high.........Forced to sell at profit
3) House prices fall, interest rates stay low........Cannot move, keep house
4) House prices fall, interest rates go high.........Bankruptcy

This is a pretty crude analysis.

First of all, few people should 'jump for joy' if HPI continues. Perhaps the exception are people with small mortgages or no mortgages who have no plans to move up the fabled ladder. Or people planning to sell up and not buy again.

As for 2,3, and 4, you're not forced to sell or forced into bankruptcy or stuck, unless you're very highly over-leveraged. People who've recently bought and are already at the limits of their affordability are vulnerable, and have to find a solution. Being repossessed or forced to sell is a last resort, when all other options are exhausted.

Remember that 83% of new mortgagees are on fixed rate deals. Mine lasts for 7 years, for instance. The majority of current owners with newish mortgages are pretty well insulated against IR rises. Most other people who've been owners for a while will have a thick layer of equity between them and the workhouse.

brasso

dannyboycey wrote: »

Unfortunately, the majority of people can only see option 1 and 2 and are going to get their fingers burnt.

No, not the majority, and nowhere near.

Actually quite a small minority.

brasso

dannyboycey wrote: »

..... a market which is literally hanging by a thread ......

:rotfl: Do you know what "literally" means??

tr3mor

wecanhelpu wrote: »

:rotfl: :eek: :mad: :rolleyes:

I've seen some !!!!!! written on this forum but this post must surely take the biscuit

I think everyone missed the most important thing in this thread - there's a naughty word not censored by the overzealous forum! :beer:

dannyboycey

brasso wrote: »

:rotfl: Do you know what "literally" means??

Strangely enough, yes. Don't you just love anally retentive people! I was speaking metaphorically.... obviously

brasso wrote: »

Remember that 83% of new mortgagees are on fixed rate deals. Mine lasts for 7 years, for instance. The majority of current owners with newish mortgages are pretty well insulated against IR rises.

Perhaps you should learn to speak a little more objectively. The majority are well insulated against IR rises?? Absolute rubbish. Many new fixed rate deals are for 1, 2 or 3 years. Not 7, like you.

brasso

dannyboycey wrote: »

Strangely enough, yes. Don't you just love anally retentive people! I was speaking metaphorically.... obviously

And if you were speaking metaphorically, then you weren't speaking literally, by definition. The two words are antonyms.

But of course you knew that, didn't you? :rolleyes:

brasso

dannyboycey wrote: »

Perhaps you should learn to speak a little more objectively. The majority are well insulated against IR rises?? Absolute rubbish. Many new fixed rate deals are for 1, 2 or 3 years. Not 7, like you.

The majority of people fall into at least one of these categories:

- they have paid off their mortgage
- they have more than 20% equity in their homes
- they have an income sufficient to pay more on their mortgage
- they have a fixed rate mortgage of at least 2-3 years
- they have a Plan B

These people are insulated against IR rises.

The people who are vulnerable are those who are:

- already at the very margins of mortgage affordability
AND
- have no equity in their properties.

Minority or majority? You decide....

----

(And looking at your recent posts, if I need lessons in 'speaking objectively', forgive me if I don't take any lessons from someone like you.)

olly300

brasso wrote: »

Are you being serious?

Nope. I felt your post to Phlash was patronising.

You don't know the posters background like they didn't know yours.

In addition my post did have some truth in it as I've got relations around your age who either:
1. Worked their way up the company they worked for into a management position without a degree (I could hunt out some links to studies to show this is more impossible now.)
2. Studied while working full-time to gain a degree.

brasso wrote: »

Everyone who wants to go to university, and who has the ability should be entitled to a funded place. It's in the interests of society at large that we have a well-educated and articulate workforce. I've yet to discuss this with anyone who has a different view.

I have friends' in their 20's and 30's, who either don't have a degree and they have told me that they can't/couldn't get certain jobs/promotions because they didn't have a degree. So some went off and became mature students........

Strangely the antipodeans I know, who say they have the same level of experience, aren't stopped from getting the same type of jobs without a degree as they state know one understands the qualifications they put on their CV and anyway they are seen as hard workers. I was in a similar situation when I worked abroad the company that employed me didn't understand my CV properly (even though I'm a graduate) so related it to their local environment so they thought I was over qualified for the job.

brasso wrote: »

As for how higher education is paid for, I can't for the life of me see what's wrong with a 'graduate tax', payable by all graduates whose earnings rise above a certain level -- perhaps above £25K?

I certainly would be happy to pay it.

I actually wrote to my home MP at the time parliament was voting about bringing in loans and fees about having a graduate tax instead as it would be fairer. My MP abstained.

dannyboycey

brasso wrote: »

And if you were speaking metaphorically, then you weren't speaking literally, by definition. The two words are antonyms.

But of course you knew that, didn't you? :rolleyes:

How did I know that was coming? Actually, 'metaphorically' and 'literally' are not atonyms at all. It is quite acceptable to use subjective language within metaphors. But then you knew that, I'm sure.

It is quite clear to me that you have a vested in HPI. Perhaps you work for a financial institution, or more likely, you are an estate agent (which would explain the nonsensical nature of some of your posts).

I don't have the time or the inclination for petty arguments of an anally retentive nature, so I'll gracefully bow out now. (it's been a very interesting thread in parts though, which is good).