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HS2, is it right for the UK?
Comments
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The budget has now been set at this £42 billion. If costs rise above this, then savings will have to be made on the project through changing/eliminating parts of the scope.
The budget has been set at £42bn for now. A project of this size and magnitude over so long is bound to grow in cost.
If the scope is subsequently constrained or down graded then benefilit realisation will not be achieved so quite rightly the viability is being questioned.
How many of the benefits are actually measurable and achievable and how many are possible spin offs sucked in desperation to make the figures work? How will a successful return ever be established?"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
If the former is true then it is hard to understand why there are so few intermediate stops.
TruckerT
It wouldn't be fast anymore?
Not that fast is a prime consideration anymore."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »The budget has been set at £42bn for now. A project of this size and magnitude over so long is bound to grow in cost
Why? Who says so? Why shouldn't so many highly paid experts be expected to get things right?
TruckerTAccording to Clapton, I am a totally ignorant idiot.0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »It wouldn't be fast anymore?
Not that fast is a prime consideration anymore.
Persackly! If speed is less important than capacity, then let's drop the 'HS' bit, and just go for better coverage. We could then include many of the areas which are now predicted to be HS2 'losers'. And we might be able to divert the 14 years of disruption away from what seem to be the only two existing/important UK railway lines (East Coast and West Coast)
TruckerTAccording to Clapton, I am a totally ignorant idiot.0 -
Why? Who says so? Why shouldn't so many highly paid experts be expected to get things right?
TruckerT
Managed a lot of projects Truck?
It is my view and I doubt I am alone.
What makes you think highly paid people are necessarily experts? If they indeed are, just how can they know, with so many variables to contend with over so many years?"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »What makes you think highly paid people are necessarily experts?
That's the opposite of what I think
If they indeed are, just how can they know, with so many variables to contend with over so many years?
That's precisely what they are paid to know. But, like the rest of us, they just guess
TruckerT...According to Clapton, I am a totally ignorant idiot.0 -
No, it's a waste of money and it could be better spent elsewhere.grizzly1911 wrote: »Managed a lot of projects Truck?
It is my view and I doubt I am alone.
What makes you think highly paid people are necessarily experts? If they indeed are, just how can they know, with so many variables to contend with over so many years?
I suspect the planning and costing will involve many similar experts to those who predicted West Coast Mainline would be £2bn.
By 2008 it was at least £8bn.0 -
Yes, the benefits to the UK are far too great to ignore.I don't know for certain that the costs will stay within the £42 billion envelope. My psychic powers haven't fully developed yet. I do know that the £42 billion includes £13 billion contingency already.I suspect the planning and costing will involve many similar experts to those who predicted West Coast Mainline would be £2bn.
By 2008 it was at least £8bn.
I'll give you three of the many causes behind that cost increase:
- Altering/renovating an existing structure is a lot more risky than building a new one from scratch. What archive drawings didn't get lost, damaged or whatever don't generally cover the structure in as much detail as the ones we produce now do. Also, these surviving drawings don't cover the condition of the structure, or whether someone's altered it in the intervening years. You have to investigate these, and sometimes what happens in one place is completely different to what happens a few metres away. No matter how much investigation you do, however many archive drawings you look at, you always find what's on site is different. Then you just have to make very conservative assumptions, and go belt-and-braces with your support to the existing structure. (Plus, you also usually find that the existing structure doesn't work to the existing codes, as they are more onerous than the standards used originally.)
- The WCML upgrade was based around introducing a type of signalling more advanced than had ever been used on a main line before (at least in the UK - I don't know about abroad). After getting a long way into the project, it turned out that this was too advanced, and Railtrack had to go back to conventional signalling. This cost a boatload of cash and helped in the demise of Railtrack.
- A nice big juicy chunk of compo to Richard Branson, once the signalling was changed and the 140mph ambition was brought back to 125mph.
A new build HS2 gets rid of a lot of that over most of the route. I say most, as HS2 will start in Euston, which will take a lot of remodelling. However, it would need that in the other plans suggested by others (6-tracking, etc). For most of the route, HS2 will be new build, which is a heck of a lot easier than refurbishment. Also, new build doesn't affect existing passengers anywhere near as much as refurbishment does.0 -
Why is it that aeroplane scheduling now seems to be like waiting for a bus?
I have just been checking for arrivals for a major regional airport.
The flight in question is from the Middle East. I notice there is littel in all day but two flights, seperate operators, arrive at the same time. Nothing else all day.
OK I guess they could be the first flights of the day (time differnce) from the departure point and their may be demand and risk is being distributed amongst the carriers.
I then had a look and a number of 1 hour hops and domestic arrivals all seem to be bunched at the same time too. 7 from Amsterdam, 5 from Paris, 2 from Glasgow etc.
Anything to do with immigartion controls?
Should there be more competition between operators on the same rail line. On WCML we only seem to have Virgin fast and LM slow trundling to London?"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »Why is it that aeroplane scheduling now seems to be like waiting for a bus?
I have just been checking for arrivals for a major regional airport.
The flight in question is from the Middle East. I notice there is littel in all day but two flights, seperate operators, arrive at the same time. Nothing else all day.
OK I guess they could be the first flights of the day (time differnce) from the departure point and their may be demand and risk is being distributed amongst the carriers.
I then had a look and a number of 1 hour hops and domestic arrivals all seem to be bunched at the same time two. 7 from Amsterdam, 5 from Paris, 2 from Glasgow etc.
Anything to do with immigartion controls?
Should there be more competition between operators on the same rail line. On WCML we only seem to have Virgin fast and LM slow trundling to London?
are you sure they are actually two different planes?
often the same flight has two brands maybe a local one and a BA one
it would after all be odd to have two planes landing at exactly the same time from exactly the same place0
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