Q3 gdp +0.8%

Masomnia

Including a 2.5% increase in construction. That's what we're most interested in, right?

Loughton_Monkey

So the optimistic forecasters were right. It means that the UK economy is now 2.5% below the peak of output before the downturn. The service sector has fully recovered and is now 0.4% above its pre-downturn level, but manufacturing is 8.9% below it and construction is 12.5% lower.

michaels

So about the same as a year ago so leaves 12m to date little changed...whereas if we get a positive number for Q4 it wil put annual growth at about 2% which is somewhat more than most of the forecasters are currently predicting and miles more than the start of the year (remember tripple-dip gate ?!)

Loughton_Monkey

Even better news. It means that we can all, now, sleep soundly in our beds now and for evermore. Gideon has spoken. We're going to be OK.

Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said in a tweet: "This shows that Britain's hard work is paying off and the country is on the path to prosperity."

... large gin & tonics all round...:)

ILW

Time to bump up IRs then.

mayonnaise

ILW wrote: »

Time to bump up IRs then.

Why? What indicators tell you it's time to bump them?

chucky

ILW wrote: »

Time to bump up IRs then.

Why would they want to do that?

Carl31

I think i will wait for the inevitable downgrade in a few weeks before i get excited, like usual

mayonnaise

Carl31 wrote: »

I think i will wait for the inevitable downgrade in a few weeks before i get excited, like usual

Does a 0.1% up- or downgrade really matter that much?

chewmylegoff

chucky wrote: »

Why would they want to do that?

Maybe they will finally listen to the letters ILW has been sending to his MP every couple of weeks since 2009 complaining about the rate he is getting on his savings.

Generali

Great news, especially if the housing boom that seems to be starting can kickstart building. The Government has done its bit by changing the rules to make building easier. Now people need to get out there and build.

michaels wrote: »

So about the same as a year ago so leaves 12m to date little changed...whereas if we get a positive number for Q4 it wil put annual growth at about 2% which is somewhat more than most of the forecasters are currently predicting and miles more than the start of the year (remember tripple-dip gate ?!)

Current rates of growth annualised are over 3%, well into traditional recovery territory.

This is the bit where it gets interesting. What to do about QE and ZIRP? Do you unwind QE first and then do something about ZIRP or do you let QE unwind itself as bonds mature and simply raise rates? The M4 money supply indicator remains the indicator to watch IMHO. It seems that house price rises are being driven largely by London cash purchases.

That can quickly change and I reckon M4 will be the first indicator that will make the BoE think things are getting out of hand, if they actually do get out of hand.