Trying to predict flight fluctuation in prices!

angelfire

Hi all,

We are planning a trip to Benalmadena next Summer and I have taken a risk, that at the minute looks to have backfired regarding flight costs...

Easyjet flights came out last week and the prices were reasonable, although not fantastic for a family of four to Malaga. So I decided to wait for Ryanair to release theirs. This they have now done but they are more expensive than the Easyjet ones were and the Easyjet ones have now increased in price!

I knew that this was the risk when I decided to wait and now it's actually Monarch who are working out the cheapest, with their £20 per person off flights code.

My situation now is - do I book the Monarch ones (some £170 in total more expensive than the Easyjet ones were), or do I wait and hope that Ryanair drop their prices closer to the time?!

Ryanair have their continual sales, which from past experience seem to be around 8 weeks before you fly. I know that Malaga, being a short flight away, should still be reasonably easy to get a flight to closer to the time i'm just not sure whether to take the risk!

I was wondering if anyone knows of a website/blog/whatever, that has kept a track of Ryanair's pricing over a 12 month period?

Any suggestions, advice, points of note appreciated!! :beer:

EmmaParsons

Ryanair have only released their flights this week. Generally Ryanair sell at a higher price initially to grab those who are desperate to book and then will decrease in a month or two. Nearer the time they will increase them again.

Easyjet and others will be watching their competitors closely. If they were massively cheaper they can now also increase their fares a bit, but still be cheaper.

I would suggest hanging fire a little while to let the dust settle and then trying again as you may find prices fluctuate quite a bit between now and the end of the year, never mind next year.

angelfire

EmmaParsons wrote: »

Ryanair have only released their flights this week. Generally Ryanair sell at a higher price initially to grab those who are desperate to book and then will decrease in a month or two. Nearer the time they will increase them again.

Easyjet and others will be watching their competitors closely. If they were massively cheaper they can now also increase their fares a bit, but still be cheaper.

I would suggest hanging fire a little while to let the dust settle and then trying again as you may find prices fluctuate quite a bit between now and the end of the year, never mind next year.

Thankyou for your reply - I did wonder if this is how they operate! My partner is panicing and is keen to just 'get it booked', but for me the prices currently quoted are not good value, so as you say, I will wait!

Alan_Bowen

Ryanair's initial pricing is lower for 2014 than they were for summer 2013 when they made a big error at the start of the season. Easyjet therefore sold far more seats and had fewer to sell in the last 8 weeks, meaning they could sell them at very high prices. Ryanair were left with far more seats than they wanted and had to reduce prices and their profits suffered as a result.

If you want to travel at peak weekends in the summer, I would not leave it until 8 weeks before departure, if you are travelling early July(or better still June)you an afford to wait but if the price seems reasonable in the near future, book it and do not check the price again. Ryanair in particular got its pricing wrong this year and is unlikely to make the same mistake again for summer 2014

Blue264

I'd grab the Monarch flights simply because it's Monarch and not the other two

Coraline

Trying to predict flight prices is a slightly safer version of gambling on the stock market!

I'd rather have the peace of mind booking early than try to get it a bit cheaper. In my experience by booking flights six months ahead I've usually gotten the cheapest fare and not had to worry about it.

Or if you're flexible, setting fare alerts on several options then waiting to see if any of them drop can work...then jumping on one if the difference is dramatic. It's like hedging your bets and keeps it more interesting to where you'll ultimately wind up!

tower

Norwegian Air have return flights for £120 next August from Gatwick if that helps. Make sure to click direct flights otherwise you go via Oslo:eek:...

tower

And the kids fares are less if they are under 11:T