Is a bear market on the cards in 2 weeks?

at11

Just heard on the news about the decisions that will be made in 2 weeks which could result in the US defaulting, apparently

I know the news always over-exaggerate any negative news, but is this a likely turmoil on the cards?

I've invested a lot of my savings in shares and after hearing this news im thinking of getting completely out of my holdings, if this US default is likely to occur, or even 50:50 chance of happening

Opinions wanted please

are you going to sell your holdings before this budget crisis ?

Glen_Clark

Diversify, and Chill

There is a thread on this subject already https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/63303956#Comment_63303956

dealer_wins

My opinion is that investing in shares is for the long term, and don't worry about short term ups and downs.

Otherwise you are likely to sell low and buy high throughout your life.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

at11 wrote: »

Just heard on the news about the decisions that will be made in 2 weeks which could result in the US defaulting, apparently

I know the news always over-exaggerate any negative news, but is this a likely turmoil on the cards?

I've invested a lot of my savings in shares and after hearing this news im thinking of getting completely out of my holdings, if this US default is likely to occur, or even 50:50 chance of happening

Opinions wanted please

are you going to sell your holdings before this budget crisis ?

Don't you view a drop in prices as an opportunity to pick up some bargains in you favourite stocks?

I maintain a list of stocks for this purpose. It's an active market and its changing all the time.

Oh and in answer to your question no I won't be selling all my stocks but I will be selling stocks when the time and price is favourable!

For example a very nice buying opportunity came up for SSE and Centrica recently. Today Unilever is on offer! Yesterday Easyjet was.

Glen_Clark

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Today Unilever is on offer!

Unilever's business model is getting the consumer to pay a premium for a brand name. How much longer can this go on when people are looking to economize?
Aldi Sales are up a staggering 40% - their business model is based on NOT paying a premium for a brand name.

jimjames

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Unilever's business model is getting the consumer to pay a premium for a brand name. How much longer can this go on when people are looking to economize?

Good question but Unilever is a very successful long term business and there is also the option that people may choose to pay for a premium product as a treat if they are not spending on other items like eating out.

In answer to the original question. If you sold everytime you thought there was a possible drop then you'd spend a fortune on dealing fees and most likely be out of the market when it rises again. Easy to get out - but how do you decide when to get back in? What happens in 2 weeks if there isn't a drop but a rise?

Glen_Clark

jimjames wrote: »

Good question but Unilever is a very successful long term business and there is also the option that people may choose to pay for a premium product as a treat if they are not spending on other items like eating out.

True.
If you are ever near Port Sunlight take a look in the Lady Lever Art Gallery (free Admission) 100 years ago Lever collected paintings of beautiful women, which he could then reproduce to advertise his 'Sunlight' soap. The inference being that if you wash in 'Sunlight' soap you will look like her.
It still seems to work today

dunstonh

Unilever's business model is getting the consumer to pay a premium for a brand name. How much longer can this go on when people are looking to economize?

Who says people are looking to economise? Yes there is a market there for people who would have spent beyond their means in the credit boom years but cant any more but there is a bigger market for premium services/items.

Aldi Sales are up a staggering 40% - their business model is based on NOT paying a premium for a brand name.

But that is not on like for like sales. They have opened stores and boosted sales and profits that way as well. It only has 3.7% share of the market. It does what it does well to a small part of the marketplace. Waitrose has also increased it's market share to 4.9% and increased it's profit.


The US debt ceiling is a recurring event. It is a worry that occurs and one day it may well bite but you cant keep popping in and out of the market every 3-6 months. If you are that worried then get out and stay out.

grizzly1911

dunstonh wrote: »

Who says people are looking to economise? Yes there is a market there for people who would have spent beyond their means in the credit boom years but cant any more but there is a bigger market for premium services/items.



But that is not on like for like sales. They have opened stores and boosted sales and profits that way as well. It only has 3.7% share of the market. It does what it does well to a small part of the marketplace. Waitrose has also increased it's market share to 4.9% and increased it's profit.

People will always be prepared for a "brand" if nothing mor ethan self gratification whether or not it actually does an better job. Aspiration, I have made it scenario.

It will be interesting to see how two stores, essentially selling food and groceries at either end of the spectrum progress. I wonder which will grow the fastest and how will both affect those stores in the mainstream.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

Has anyone here dipped in on the recent dip in SSE shares?

lvader

dealer_wins wrote: »

My opinion is that investing in shares is for the long term, and don't worry about short term ups and downs.

Otherwise you are likely to sell low and buy high throughout your life.

I do look for short term events and see them as an opportunity.