The First Time Buyer - How do they have it really?

martinsurrey

thedalmeny wrote: »

Fact is it? Please show me a reputable source breaking down first time buyers by age and family profile.

The average first child age for women is 29.5, based on that statistic alone it's enough assume your statement is incorrect.

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_296157.pdf

average age for first birth is 27.9 average age for FTB is 30+, so it follows that the average FTB is a mother/family

thedalmeny wrote: »

My defense is the analysis supported by the data, so far all you've managed to do is the following;

what you have actually done is pick a few data sets, (median income, flat price per region, amount of income required for a single person to have a standard of living) and used your OPINION that these are representative of FTB's.

you than use that opinion to lead your analysis, and get to a flawed conclusion.

as I said, your analysis is valid for a singleton (1) 30+ (2) , they can easily afford to buy a flat (3) in most parts of the country...

that is the fact of your analysis

1) single person because you used the figure for a single person standard of living (£870 per month)

2) 30+ as you used median salarys, and this is the age range its achived

3) you limited your analysis to flats.

anything more than that is due to opinions and assumptions you've made, some of which are wrong.

your data sets do NOT cover FTB's as a group, and so your sweeping conlusion is deeply flawed.

ukcarper

martinsurrey wrote: »

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_296157.pdf

average age for first birth is 27.9 average age for FTB is 30+, so it follows that the average FTB is a mother/family

No as average of FTBs is average of FTBs while average age of first births is for all births.

thedalmeny

martinsurrey wrote: »

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_296157.pdf

average age for first birth is 27.9 average age for FTB is 30+, so it follows that the average FTB is a mother/family

I really do love you

Here are the most recent findings;

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/vs!!!/birth-summary-tables--england-and-wales/2012/stb-births-in-england-and-wales-2012.html

I'll also quote what the ONS class as Key Findings, rather than you choosing the lowest figure out of the 2011 findings.

The average age of mothers in 2012 increased to 29.8 years, compared with 29.7 years in 2011.

So let me understand your logic...

Because on average women have children at the age of 29.8, that the average first time buyer must have children... You're essentially assuming that the average first time buyer category is predominately filled with women who have children, completely discounting;

• Men (Both single and ones who do no cohabitate)
• Women who choose not to have children
• People preparing for a family could typically be in the older range of the first time buyer category

As i have said to you.. Please show me a reputable source breaking down first time buyers by age and family profile.

This is why working on assumptions or some opinion you've formed based on thin air, because it ultimately makes you look silly.

martinsurrey

ukcarper wrote: »

No as average of FTBs is average of FTBs while average age of first births is for all births.

ukcarper wrote: »

No as average of FTBs is average of FTBs while average age of first births is for all births.

as 90% of women become mothers and the mean age of them becoming mothers is 28 it follows that if the average age they buy a house is 32 that they must ON AVERAGE be mothers at the time they buy.

(of course there will be 20yo FTB's who have kids at 40, but we're talking averages)

the only alternative is that average mothers are never first time buyers. which again would just back up my point about choosing between a family/buying.

you cant be an average aged mother and an average aged FTB and NOT be a mother when you buy.

(I know its a mix of mean and median, but lets not lose track of the salient point)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

martinsurrey wrote: »

average age for first birth is 27.9 average age for FTB is 30+, so it follows that the average FTB is a mother/family.

Nope.

Average age for an FTB is 29.

“The average age of a first-time buyer has remained remarkably stable at around 29 - See more at: http://www.mindfulmoney.co.uk/trending-news/average-income-of-first-time-buyer-stands-at-a-record-35700-while-a-massive-93-choose-a-fixed-rate-mortgage/#sthash.paCtJ7cb.dpuf

ukcarper

martinsurrey wrote: »

as 90% of women become mothers and the mean age of them becoming mothers is 28 it follows that if the average age they buy a house is 32 that they must ON AVERAGE be mothers at the time they buy.

(of course there will be 20yo FTB's who have kids at 40, but we're talking averages)

the only alternative is that average mothers are never first time buyers. which again would just back up my point about choosing between a family/buying.

you cant be an average aged mother and an average aged FTB and NOT be a mother when you buy.

(I know its a mix of mean and median, but lets not lose track of the salient point)

Not all people who have babies buy houses so you can't use overall average you have to know the average age of people buying houses.

chucky

martinsurrey wrote: »

as 90% of women become mothers and the mean age of them becoming mothers is 28 it follows that if the average age they buy a house is 32 that they must ON AVERAGE be mothers at the time they buy.

Martin from Surrey, you've missed something very important.

Not every mother will buy a house.
Not every house is bought on a single income by a mother.

martinsurrey

chucky wrote: »

Martin from Surrey, you've missed something very important.

Not every mother will buy a house.
Not every house is bought on a single income by a mother.

I havent missed that point.

My point is that the original anaylsis is based on a single person in thier early 30's and the assumption that they are representative of FTB's.

all thiis shows is that its not that simple and by limiting the data to this narrow band of people the OP's sweeping conculsion that FTB's have it easy is simply wrong.

martinsurrey

ukcarper wrote: »

Not all people who have babies buy houses so you can't use overall average you have to know the average age of people buying houses.

and not all people who buy flats earn median salary for a region, but the original analysis assumed that...

so what we need is the average income and age and family make up of FTB's, but you'll never find it out! and the assumptions the OP made are too narrow to get the sweeping conclusion he made.

[Deleted User]

Isn't the most obvious way of seeing if it's easier to be a FTB, looking at how many FTBers there are?


So i took the data from figure 1 of http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_259965.pdf and popped it onto a chart of FTBer rates since the mid-70

If we work on the basis of 'more FTBers getting mortgages=easier to be a FTBer' then we're now in a stage which is as bad as the mid-70s.#

So, ironically, it was pretty hard to get a mortgage back when the baby boomers were buying their first houses too...