Major impact on houses

CFC

lypsey wrote: »

the saint
I should explain , from a personal point of view which I understand is selfish , i want houses to crash , so I can buy

I appreciate a crash will cause a lot of pain for others but greed has driven this market and greed will drive it back. I hate to see families deep in the s&&t but this will be a consequence

Sorry

Would never have guessed from your hopeful you had a personal interest in making it happen LOL :rolleyes:

I think you and others like you are motivated to post in the hope that you'll make some people feel uncertain about the future and start a run....I don't think a forum thread here is going to work

tonydee

Keep hoping Lypsey maybe one day your dream will come true.

thesaint

Generali wrote: »

<snip>
Also recession = more social tenants = downward pressure on rents.

Be careful what you wish for!

I have to question your 'formula' Generali.
If there are more social tenants, I do not see any downward pressure on rents as there is not enough housing for social tenants presently, I see the opposite happening in fact.

If BTL'ers exit the market place they will probably be replaced with new ones = the same amount of tenancies available, these new landlords (which will include a lot of the people on here whinging about BTL) will not cut the rent that they can receive because their outgoings are lower.

Alternatively, the stock that comes on the market will be purchased by 'normal' householder, these people currently living in social housing will be replaced by the distressed sellers, so no change there.

The only way I see a downward pressure on rents would be if local authorities were to buy up the 'distressed stock?

Knowing your usually well thought out plans, I am probably missing something?

RHemmings

mystic_trev wrote: »

I wish people wouldn't use this expression. What's the difference between a correction and a crash? It's a bit like a Doctor saying this might hurt a [strike]little [/strike] LOT !

A correction might happen over a long time, with prices dropping a few percent a year in nominal terms. A crash suggests a faster and sharper drop. For my money, a 10% drop in a year is crash speed.

Generali

In response to The Saint:

<pure speculation>

It's my theory that the British economy has gone a bit wrong - rising asset prices are propping up more debt which is raising asset prices and so on. This can't carry on forever as eventually we the debt can't be serviced any more and anything that must come to end will come to an end one day!

Once this cyclone of asset and debt stops rising, there's not that much left in the UK economy as such a huge quantity of investable funds have been pumped into BTL rather than increasing the productive capacity of this country. If the bubble pops we're in for a pretty vicious recession (think early 80s).

The trouble is, recessions are expensive - spending on welfare rises dramatically. Now this Govt has decided to spend the last 8 years ramping up spending to the point where the Govt takes the highest ever proportion of GDP. Higher even than those nutters in the 1960s and 70s that tried to cripple the country. National debt is very high too. So how do we pay for welfare during the recession? You can't raise taxes, they're too high already.

Economic reality is going to have to kick in if there's a recession. Welfare spending is going to come under enormous pressure as is council spending (politically it's easier to make councils cut their spending than it is for central govt to cut theirs).

Where does welfare and local govt meet? Housing benefit. If mass unemployment happens again, BTLers will be forced to take tenants on welfare because there won't be enough working tenants to go around. They'll have to do it to pay the mortgage. As welfare is squeezed, HB payments will be squeezed.

That will put downward pressure on rent as private LLs are forced to bid lower for the non-HB tenants that will be in greater demand.

</pure speculation>

I'm not saying it will happen but it's definitely a plausible scenario.

Anyway, better do some work. I've been here 45mins and all I've done is type this out!

pickles110564

Keep hoping Lypsey maybe one day your dream will come true

Lypsey dont rely on outside factors, work hard and make your dreams become a reality

Rick62

garethhr wrote: »

Relax, guys. It's has no chance of going up 0.50% tomorrow, according to the latest market estimates.

Probably 0.25% over the summer (but likly not tomorrow) and maybe, just maybe another 0.25% by year end.

This guys is just speculating.

I agree on their form rates are unlikely to rise 0.5% in one hit. However for real figures on what the money markets expect you need to look at swap rates, and these are still shooting up by the week.

One and 2 year swaps are now about 6.2% and even 5 year is over 6.0%. That means the markets expect base rates to go over 6% before coming down very slowly.

kodokan

Moorepart wrote: »

Without wishing to giveaway too much I can confirm that industry insiders are now preparing for a market correction,not a crash

This'll be the same industry experts that COMPLETELY failed to predict growth in excess of 20% pa on the upside, then...

Melissa177

Tick-tock, 45 mins to go until we find out!

Generali

Held at 5.5%