MSE News: House prices up at fastest rate in three years

harpoboy

OffGridLiving wrote: »

Your post would have so much more gravitas if you didn't have a signature that you stopped updating since last September (when house prices started rising?)

Poor old brit, and others like him have been waiting for a crash since 2006 -- but missed the bottom of the market (certainly in London) in early 2009.

House prices in September 2012, eh? Wasn't that around the time that brit sold up his share portfolio and piled into gold instead?


http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/...&postcount=117

From August 2012:

By the way I cashed in my shares last week. If the FTSE rises well over 5800 in the next few months I would be wrong but I don't think that will happen. 5300 here we come.

Almost as good as his 50% fall by Christmas 2009 prediction

thedalmeny

Posted at end of August 2012

brit1234 wrote: »

By the way I cashed in my shares last week. If the FTSE rises well over 5800 in the next few months I would be wrong but I don't think that will happen. 5300 here we come.

FTSE 500 (End of Aug 2012): 5711
FTSE 500 (End of Nov 2012): 5866
FTSE 500 (End of Feb 2013): 6360

Whoops.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

I almost feel sorry for Brit.

Almost...

brit1234

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I almost feel sorry for Brit.

Almost...

See that's the problem Hamish and all the Sock puppet/fake accounts above. You simply can't win the the argument when the situation/facts are put in front of you.

There is no debating each one to say it is wrong and for what reason. Just attempts to change the subject with deflecting personal attacks.

You know what I have written is right, you won't admit it of course but deep down there you know its all true. We have a giant housing bubble only supported by extreme measures that once removed will bring down the house of cards.

Lets test the theory.

Q Hamish what would happen to house prices if wages stayed the same and interest rates went up to 2%? Due feel in those conditions there is scope for house price rises? Then the same if rates went to 5%?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

brit1234 wrote: »

Lets test the theory.

Q Hamish what would happen to house prices if wages stayed the same and interest rates went up to 2%? Due feel in those conditions there is scope for house price rises? Then the same if rates went to 5%?

You may as well ask what would happen if the moon fell to earth!

If you think base rates will rise to 5% in the absence of a strengthening economy and wage growth, you've got no idea how monetary policy works. And if you think bank margins will stay the same when base rates rise, you've really got no idea.

But while I have your attention.

-Why haven't you updated your sig in 9 months since prices started going YoY positive?

-Why did you remove the '$500 silver' ramp from your sig when Silver started crashing?

You simply can't win the the argument when the situation/facts are put in front of you.

You won't even respond to the questions above or update your sig in 9 months.

The situation/facts are pretty clear.

Prices have been rising since early 2009, are back above 2007 levels both where you live and where I live, and your '50% off by Xmas' prediction failed to materialise.

Can't see that you have a leg to stand on if 'facts' are what you want to argue.

brit1234

Yet again completely deflecting the question. I gave you the chance to argue your point and you failed to do so.

There you have it ladies and gents, even the most vocal house price ramper can't argue against we have a huge house price bubble supported by extreme stimulus measures and that if this stimulus is removed house prices will crash.

Just to recall all the stimulus holding up the bubble:

1. 0.5% interest rates
2. QE
3. Funding for lending
4. Support for Mortgage Interest scheme (SMI)
5. Shared equity scheme -Home buy, First Buy, New Buy & Help to Buy
6. Shared Ownership scheme
7. Foreign buyers purchasing property as cash safes mostly in London

Without it House prices will fall.

HarryBarry

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We hear all sorts of crazy excuses around here for why prices shouldn't rise.....

But they are rising anyway.

I'm sure you are the person I responded to a while ago in another thread about house prices, I should have checked back on the thread but never did. Can you let me know the impact to you if house prices were to rise ? because you seem desperate for them to do so and are clinging to any sort of hope, while twisting facts that we can all read and interpret ourselves.

For a start, crazy excuses? I can only see one person doing that in this thread (and the other one I read). But maybe the reason people don't want them to rise is because of how we have first hand evidence of the impact of this - the whole system collapsed. Until things level out properly I dont see a reason to want prices to rise.

You keep talking about falling asset prices (and mortgage rationing) have caused great damage to the economy. Yes, you are right... but why do you continually fail to link this happening to the fact house prices were too high in the first place. Prices got too high, people took out stupid loans against their house (for stuff they didnt need) and mortgage lenders didnt bother checking affordability - of course this is great for the economy, all of this borrowed money gets spent... this happens for a few years and obviously the money eventually runs out... all money now going on houses and loans, no money left for anything else (causes problems for banks etc etc, you know how it went), so now high prices are bad for the economy.

So it seems bizarre that several events happened (with one event causing the other), but you only tell half the story. The previous way the system was working was quite clearly not sustainable, no matter how good things temporarily were. If you want those spells of massive rises and a great economy, dont moan when the bad side of it happens. It is simply impossibly to have house prices rise and rise forever while wages dont keep up, because of the speed of this rise, it will just cause years of the "bad" side.

Government have had to do all they can to prop up the market, so realistically I find it impossible to make a case for anything other than a long period of stagnation. I don't think prices will drop because of all the schemes, I dont think they will rise (much) because of how close to peak prices we still are.

HarryBarry

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We hear all sorts of crazy excuses around here for why prices shouldn't rise.....

But they are rising anyway.

And to respond to the "but they are rising anyway"...

Before I do, I'll just say rising house prices benefit me more than falling prices, but I'm not going to be a deluded idiot and twist the facts to suit what is best for me.

So anyway "but they are rising anyway" - yes, strictly you are correct, but as normal it tells very little of the story. Using the nationwide monthly figures that this thread is based on, since the 09 crash house prices have been higher than they currently are (170k, Jun-10). In fact since 09 it has gone a bit like this...

2010 - prices rose steadily to 170k in June, dropping steadily for the rest of the year (low 160s).

2011 - prices increasing until 169k in the summer, before dropping to the low 160s near the end.

2012 - Rising slightly until the summer months (only 166k peak though) before dropping again to the low 160s.

2013 - Yep you guessed it, rising to 169k in the summer...

We have a fairly consistent pattern. So, interpret it how you want, if you want to spin it in a way that says prices are rising go ahead. Considering it has happened for the 4th year in a row before falling, I think it would be foolish to conclude house prices are "rising" or going to rise significantly.

ruggedtoast

Can anyone tell me what house prices were doing in October 2012?

harpoboy

brit1234 wrote: »

... House prices will fall.

How much do you reckon?

50% by Christmas, I'd say