Working out how much a fund might go up/down in a year

kingsleypne

I am trying to determine how much my portfolio might go up or down in a year. I use FE Trustnet to do my fund analysis and each fund has a volatility percentage but I can't find any information that tells me if this the amount it might go up/down in a year. Anyone know the answer or how else I can work it out?

innovate

Buy a crystal ball?

kingsleypne

Perhaps I need to re-phrase my question. Can someone tell me how to interpret the volatility percentage for a fund - on FT Trustnet it's specified for 1 and 3 years - and whether I can use it to work out - in the past - how much a fund went up or down in a year. To me, part of establishing the risk in investing in a fund, is having some measure of how much it might go up/down in a year.

Ark_Welder

Trustnet provide descriptions of Volatility and Beta that might be of use. However, the drawback of these is that they are calculated from historic data so might not be a reliable guide to future volatility and beta.

Gromitt

kingsleypne wrote: »

whether I can use it to work out - in the past - how much a fund went up or down in a year.

Wouldn't it be easier to download the historic data and graphs of the fund you are interested in? Of course, past performance is no indication of future performance.

grizzly1911

Gromitt wrote: »

Wouldn't it be easier to download the historic data and graphs of the fund you are interested in? Of course, past performance is no indication of future performance.

^^^ what this poster says and Arkwelder

Have you used the multi chart plotting tool and mapped a few investments to see what they look like relative to each other.

Up until the last month if you had put a reasonable bond fund on there with a UK equity income fund, the former would be have been a slight income steady growth whilst the latter would have bounced either side and then increase rapidly.

You can also build a portfolio and track over different time scales and against various indicies.

Edit:- Citywire will also show what the theoretical worst loss would have been in a given period
http://citywire.co.uk/fund/invesco-perpetual-high-income/c9305?section=money

kingsleypne

Thanks for the tip about using CityWire - I've not looked at that site before. I like the way it shows you a list of funds in a given sector and you can quickly see how they rank against each other for total return, maximum loss, risk, and sharpe ratio.