ERNIE - What Does Random Mean?

Lyrrad

Hi

This is one for the statistions out there.

Terms & Conditions - 1 April 2007

13. If a £1 Bond unit is drawn more than once in a draw it will be allocated the highest prize for which it is drawn.


I am suprised that a number can actually be drawn twice, but if it is surely not to pay out on it is not random anymore. The draw surely is now classified as manipulated. In theory it seems 1 number could win every prize of any given month, and yet the payout would only be £1 million in total.

alared

No bonds are actually "drawn".
Random numbers are generated by the computer and so in theory a number could be created twice although very unlikely.

Lyrrad

But how ever unlikely it is, it is still possible. Therefore why not pay out twice?

Chrismaths

Cos thems the rules... You agree them when you buy a premium bond, or if you don't agree you don't buy. I don't think the vanishingly small likelihood of having your number drawn twice should concern you as much as the vanishingly small chance of making more money than you would in a savings account.

dealsearcher

Ah! That vanishingly small print again! :rotfl:

nilrem_2

I do sometimes wonder how 'random' ERNIE actually is? I have an MP3 player that has 'random' play on it but it sometimes supplies remarkably similar music choices, unless of course it 'likes' certain tracks! Lol.

Electronic devices can have patterns and bias I wonder if ERNIE has any?

Paul_Herring

nilrem wrote: »

I do sometimes wonder how 'random' ERNIE actually is? I have an MP3 player that has 'random' play on it but it sometimes supplies remarkably similar music choices, unless of course it 'likes' certain tracks! Lol.

Electronic devices can have patterns and bias I wonder if ERNIE has any?

No it doesn't. The 'random' on your PC or music player is what's called a pseudo-random number - generated by a formula.

ERNIE's randomness is generated externally to ERNIE by looking at thermal noise (heat to you and me): http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn6289&lpos=home2

losgiganteskid

What would be interesting to know is whether a bond held by someone had been selected for a prize twice in one month but only one prize allocated - we shall never know I suppose.

Regarding being "random" - ERNIE is checked regularly so as to be totally random. How is is done I hear you say. I have it on very good authority that extensive checks are made to determine whether any trace of a pattern is established. If they can't find one then it is ASSUMED the draw is random.

I also believe each month the powers that be purposely delete my bonds which would explain why I never seem to win !!

someone

nilrem wrote: »

I do sometimes wonder how 'random' ERNIE actually is? I have an MP3 player that has 'random' play on it but it sometimes supplies remarkably similar music choices, unless of course it 'likes' certain tracks! Lol.

Electronic devices can have patterns and bias I wonder if ERNIE has any?

Or, do you only notice it when the next random song is smiller. We are very good at spotting pattens. In random numbers there is bound to be groups by its very nature

wacko911

My Mp3 player does the same - the random fuction isnt really random. This is down to the programming. It quite difficult to make a computer pick randomly, as it uses a formula, which uses a seed value (starting value). If the seed value isnt random, then neither will the output. Ie if you always turn on the ramdom fuction on track 1 (and the track number is the seed value) you may well find, that the next 100 random tracks will always be in the same order. Try going to a random track yourself, and then turning random on.

For what I read, EERNIE uses a random seed, so the output should be random.

How to you check something is random? You run it 100's of millions of times, and each number should could out an equal number of times, with no determinal pattern.