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Sell In May And Fly Away...
A_Flock_Of_Sheep
Posts: 5,332 Forumite
May is nearly over and June is upon us. What are your thoughts for Equities over the next 4 to 8 weeks?
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I expect more of the same, still a way to go before any real, all time high is reached. Globally the printing presses are still pumping out buckets full of counterfeit for banks to speculate with. It's daft not to be in stock market collectives right now, it's also daft to be all in. imho.
I've seen gains in the last few months I'd optimistically expected to see after about 3 or 4 years and have started trying to figure out how I might lock some of that in but whether it backfires remains to be seen.'We don't need to be smarter than the rest; we need to be more disciplined than the rest.' - WB0 -
I've seen gains in the last few months I'd optimistically expected to see after about 3 or 4 years and have started trying to figure out how I might lock some of that in but whether it backfires remains to be seen.
At least knowing it isn't normal allows you to look for the downsides. It could be positive in many ways. The fall doesn't happen:T, the fall isn't as big as predicted:) the fall does happen and you were right:cool:.
Finding that place to lock it away is the key. I have some cash exiting a fix period it would be nice to have a crystal ball.
In response to the OP less growth more flat lining over that time period."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
MoneyWeek says there's no bubble in shares."It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis0
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A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »May is nearly over and June is upon us. What are your thoughts for Equities over the next 4 to 8 weeks?
I have it on good authority that they will fluctuate....
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C'mon. Name your source.marathonic wrote: »I have it on good authority that they will fluctuate....0 -
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I will as usual, continue my regular investments.
Do be aware though, that every year when I go to france (where I have only spotty access to the internet) in July/august that there tends to be a crash/sell off lol. There certainly have been a number in recent years.
So those of you out there who go by such things might want to know I am thinking of going early this year (ie beginning of july rather than late or august as I normally do).0 -
A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »May is nearly over and June is upon us. What are your thoughts for Equities over the next 4 to 8 weeks?
You really shouldn't be worrying about how prices will do over the next 4 to 8 weeks.
You shouldn't even worry about 4 to 8 months and even 4 to 8 years isn't really a long time for shares.
They will go up and down but in the long term should be higher than they are now.Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.0 -
A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »May is nearly over and June is upon us. What are your thoughts for Equities over the next 4 to 8 weeks?
I was expecting a 5-8% correction in May and although the month is not over yet I think a change to the "roadmap" is in order. I still believe that we will see some pullback, but that distribution and topping process will continue over the summer. So far, commodities stocks have not really joined the rally, and usually these do before distribution is complete. I say usually, because it doesn't always happen. The reason why commodities/basic materials stocks have not joined is probably because if you take a look at prices for oil, metals and soon - these are not really responding to QE, as they are usually more affected by actual demand/supply in the economy, which is still very weak - which is also what is keeping inflation well down (in relation to the amount of money being printed). I will be keeping an eye on commodities prices, as well as the sectors of the stocks operating in those markets for clues.
My overall position is still around 59% equities, 22% bonds (mostly corporate) and 12% cash and the rest in derivatives - mainly for hedging purposes.
I expect increased volatility over the summer (i.e. in the next 1-3 months) with a new all-time high on the FTSE most probably, but the volatility will come as part part of the distributive process from institution to retail and the completion of that process.
I still expect some severe weakness in equities in Q4 and into potentially Q1 at the current time.
I think the point to be made is that one needs to strike a balance between staying long and strong and protecting paper profits, each person will have a different view on that I am sure.
Good luck all.
J0 -
I will as usual, continue my regular investments.
Do be aware though, that every year when I go to france (where I have only spotty access to the internet) in July/august that there tends to be a crash/sell off lol. There certainly have been a number in recent years.
So those of you out there who go by such things might want to know I am thinking of going early this year (ie beginning of july rather than late or august as I normally do).
:beer: ha, ha, thanks for the tip! Last year didn't live up to this 'advice' though did it? From what I have read recently equities are being snapped up and there is a bit of a rally on!0
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