Bank of England upgrades economic growth forecasts

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Wotsthat has done it in response. I never said what Merv could or couldn't do. My gripe was with their forecasts which even we on here could say wouldn't be anywhere close. We were right. That's not me saying "horrah, well done us" it's me taking issue with the silly forecasts.

Might have to call you on that one Graham. When you said that forecasts wouldn't be anywhere close did you honestly have in your mind an inflation level that was as 'far out' as 0.8%?

ILW

wotsthat wrote: »

Might have to call you on that one Graham. When you said that forecasts wouldn't be anywhere close did you honestly have in your mind an inflation level that was as 'far out' as 0.8%?

That is 40% off target.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

Might have to call you on that one Graham. When you said that forecasts wouldn't be anywhere close did you honestly have in your mind an inflation level that was as 'far out' as 0.8%?

You are only talking about this month to evaluate the 4 years I described.

What about when it was 4-5%?

And even if only talking about this month, they forecast it to be around 1% now I believe, hence all the extra QE. You can't talk about their forecasts and then rely on the target.

You have to either talk about the target, or you talk about the forecasts. You can't mix both up to achieve what you want.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

You are only talking about this month to evaluate the 4 years I described.

What about when it was 4-5%?

And even if only talking about this month, they forecast it to be around 1% now I believe, hence all the extra QE. You can't talk about their forecasts and then rely on the target.

You have to either talk about the target, or you talk about the forecasts. You can't mix both up to achieve what you want.

The target is/ was 2.0%, the average under Merv's tenure has been 3.0%.

2.0% is low inflation, 3.0% is low inflation and significantly less than what you were expecting.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

The target is/ was 2.0%, the average under Merv's tenure has been 3.0%.

2.0% is low inflation, 3.0% is low inflation and significantly less than what you were expecting.

Sigh. Stop picking and choosing what you are willing to look at!

You have called me on what I talked about. I was talking about the last 4 years.

Mervs tenure has been a lot longer than 4 years. Stop flip flopping around from one statistic to the next and picking your favourite one.

wotsthat

ILW wrote: »

That is 40% off target.

It's 40% off target if you're a headline writer with an axe to grind

It's 0.8% off target if you understand how to compare small numbers.

ILW

wotsthat wrote: »

It's 40% off target if you're a headline writer with an axe to grind

It's 0.8% off target if you understand how to compare small numbers.

Define "small".

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

It's 40% off target if you're a headline writer with an axe to grind

It's 0.8% off target if you understand how to compare small numbers.

And it's all good and everyones a frother if you know how to spin things.

ILW

wotsthat wrote: »

It's 40% off target if you're a headline writer with an axe to grind

It's 0.8% off target if you understand how to compare small numbers.

OK, try it with a big number, for example - What is 0.8% of the total amount of savings held by UK depositors?

Clue: Halifax quote savers deposits in 2009 UK wide ate around £4000 billion.

Kennyboy66

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Come on Michaels. You know me better than that.

If that's what I was saying, I'd say it, and you wouldn't need to ask "are you saying".

Inflation is running far higher than base rates are, over any period in history that I can think of.

The subtle difference is that base rates are running lower than inflation by choice.

No sane person would be thinking that inflation is a problem at the moment, not least because wage inflation has been consistently lower for the last 3 years.

Anyone who thinks the UK would have had higher exchange rates with higher base rates should look back through the history books - black wednesday in Sept 1992 for starters.