Footsy Situation

bowlhead99

dryhat wrote: »

Of course it is.

Sorry, my mistake.

I guess if you want to promote a cynical, populist view of the world for cheap laughs, the "debate house prices and the economy" forum exists. Generally the "savings and investments" forum has more rounded individuals who engage in reasoned discussion and try to help others, and to educate as much as entertain.

That's my approach at least, and I figure it's the norm, having been virtually "thanked" in ~250 of the fewer than 400 posts made on threads here.

But then I noticed you'd been thanked in over 460 of your... well, actually fewer than 460 posts. So you're either the most popular and insightful person out there, or you are just playing for cheap easy laughs and as a side effect end up getting involved with a bunch of threads which get pulled.

I suppose, as I alluded earlier, it takes all types to make a market...

Glen_Clark

Linton wrote: »

the FTSE100 .... reached 6930 in early 2000 .

Yes but that was sheer lunacy. Freeserve, a company which had never made a profit and whose business model consisted of giving their product away for free - to customers who could switch suppliers at the click of a mouse when they tried to charge them - was one of those FTSE 100 companies!!!

IronWolf

dryhat wrote: »

The current "stock market" situation is this...

A bunch of liars and thieves decide where they want the price of a particular stock/commodity to be, then go to lunch and let their computers trade all day until that price is reached.

Bonuses all round and screw the real economy.

This board is for serious discussion, not for pedalling untruths about the stock market.

I don't think the stock market as a whole is in a bubble, although there are a number of mega caps that I would say are in a bit of a bubble (big defensives that pay dividends) due to a surge in retail investors demand for them in the low interest rate environment.

The price of the stock market is linked to interest rates, the returns investors demand from stocks are a premium over the risk free rate so if the risk free rate declines, so does the yield from stocks and hence prices rise. The current levels of the stock market are far from ridiculous given the low risk free rates.

pqrdef

The other possibility is that the Footsie is reflecting the true value of the pound, unlike the RPI faked up by the ONS.

grey_gym_sock

(off topic ...)

Glen_Clark wrote: »

Remember Cameron & Osborne's broken promises to savers when the election comes round...

what did they promise, specifically?

does your avatar have isaac newton on the other side?

Glen_Clark

bowlhead99 wrote: »

if you look at the average value of a FTSE company against the average annual profits it makes

average annual profits it has made
important difference
Otherwise an excellent post

Glen_Clark

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

(off topic ...)

does your avatar have isaac newton on the other side?

That would be more appropriate wouldn't it

as for Cameron & Osbornes broken promises to savers I don't know where to start..... http://www.saveoursavers.co.uk/featured/we-know-what-they-did-but-what-did-they-promise-to-do/

Jegersmart

In my view, most of the western indices such as FTSE, SPX, DOW and so on have a "distributive" price action meaning that over the next few months and summer, institutions will shift holdings to others before large price drops occur. As we all know, the Vanguard Equity funds have had and still are sucking in considerable amounts of retail money which allows institutions to sell into.

I still don't think we have found a Q2 bottom yet, my feeling is that such a bottom in terms of price would be moderate from here - perhaps 5-7%fall, with higher highs into and over summer to allow distribution. I think equities will have a much tougher time in later H2 and Q1 2014 - which will present some of the better buying opportunities we have had in a decade. How low would we go later on? I guess we will have to wait and see, although I would not chase equities in general at the moment, except oil stocks on weakness, maybe China if we drop another 5% or so and so on. Russia also looks reasonable, I have some recent allocation which is in someways a bet on oil price strength intot he summer period which historically have been good periods for oil/gas and so on.

I don't think we are in a bubble per se, but as distribution has started by the looks of things, we can certainly expect considerable weakness this year at some point - and I favour later H2 for that to start happening.

all imho ofc

J

Radiantsoul

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

it's true that very little of what goes on in the stock market now is to do with its supposed function of providing capital to businesses.

high-frequency trading doesn't contribute to that function, and it's a large and growing part of stock market activity.

It creates liquidity though and that liquidity reduces the price of capital. The P/E ratio for unquoted companies is far lower than quoted ones.

dryhat

bowlhead99 wrote: »

But then I noticed you'd been thanked in over 460 of your... well, actually fewer than 460 posts. So you're either the most popular and insightful person out there, or you are just playing for cheap easy laughs and as a side effect end up getting involved with a bunch of threads which get pulled.

It's a bit of both actually, but more inclined to the former.