Where is Pound £ heading?

sabretoothtigger

I havent the guts to do currency really but if you are going on holidays anyway then thats less of a gamble. Holding companies which in turn hold foreign assets and cash is less risky and in the end I usually do that through big funds
Unfortunately that frozen panic is what makes inflation profitable for big debtors like banks and government, the little guys cant easily hedge this kind of stuff but I believe accelerated devaluation is inevitable

- Lost near £20k in AIM gold miners stocks

Did they go broke. Mines take about 10 years to setup unfortunately. I hold lots that in profit on assets but almost insolvent otherwise. EMED went up 8% today but yet still not producing, still a loss in practise

I COULD roll over in June

Unless you need the money, I think its best to keep these indexed and scrap others. First direct is expiring for example, no choice

hether to buy physical (ugh - I'd probably get conned) - or use Bullionvault

ETF is fine , unleveraged nothing futures based

Was looking at Vanguard 40% or Vanguard ex-UK equity (good returns if riskier).. and also maybe some corporate bonds

I think of a bond like a cheque. Theres the danger it'll bounce but more then that I worry it wont be worth anything much by the time Im allowed to clear it to cash. So 2022 what if inflation was 7% a year, that compounds to a 50% loss of my money. Unit trusts sounds best for you I think, my largest is emerging market bonds

kidmugsy

All fiat currencies end at zero. The question is how quickly it'll get there.

grey_gym_sock

guitarman001 wrote: »

(£12.5k NS&I index-linked which I COULD roll over in June but probably wont)

they're still 1 of the best options for low-risk money - i.e. just capital preservation ... investments will hopefully do better than that, but it depends how much risk you're happy with.

other money sitting in Hargreaves account.

that's great for me (holding HL shares), as they make a margin on uninvested cash

Now that I'm in the 40% tax band, I was considering putting a chunk into pension as it's almost free money (40% top-up by the government!). I think I'm justified in going mainly for low-fee trackers... but I will add one or two managed funds just in case - even split. Think Aberdeen Emerging Markets for the
managed funds.

it's a good option, so long as you're happy not to see the money agin until you're at least 55 (i say "at least" because they may raise the minimum age again).

Probably keep 50% in cash and MAYBE start putting money into my S&S ISA.. but I'm not wanting to lose too much of it! Was looking at Vanguard 40% or Vanguard ex-UK equity (good returns if riskier).. and also maybe some corporate bonds. Again, wary of the UK.. so not sure I'd like to put too much money into anything UK-related...

40% equity vanguard means that the other 60% is in gilts / high-quality corporate bonds - which i'd be more nervous about holding at the moment than equities. risks of: rising interest rates, rising inflation, falling pound. none of them will necessarily happen any time soon, but the risk is there.

ColdIron

I can understand the risk with gilts but are you as exposed by holding corporate bonds or even emerging market bonds?

grey_gym_sock

well, the higher quality corporate bonds, which (i think) are what vanguard lifestrategy gives you, are quite similar to gilts. higher-yield corporate bonds would be less similar.

emerging markets bonds would be totally different.

lvader

6 months on and the pound has been holding it's own gaining against most currencies and commodity prices.

JohnRo

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

well, the higher quality corporate bonds, which (i think) are what vanguard lifestrategy gives you, are quite similar to gilts. higher-yield corporate bonds would be less similar.

Isn't there a fair argument to be made that many high quality corporate bonds are a damned sight safer and better long term bets now, than sovereign government IOUs given recent events and the way things generally seem to be heading?

Glen_Clark

JohnRo wrote: »

Isn't there a fair argument to be made that many high quality corporate bonds are a damned sight safer and better long term bets now, than sovereign government IOUs given recent events and the way things generally seem to be heading?

Depends what they are priced in. A company might run out of pounds to repay you with, but the BoE never will because they have their own printer

bigfreddiel

i've read it all now - lots of words - all meaningless

its all simple

if its down now it will be up in 6 months and vice versa

i say so what - if only it was like entropy which always increases!

fj

blinko

well with QE in the US supposed to be coming to an end in Q4 I would expect the dollar to strengthen against all currencies.

Although I am not to sure on what the policy is re £ strength with the BOE, they may simply issue a statement that will strengthen the £

either way I am looking to go short USD/GBP in abotu a month