Looks like we are heading for a Bull run

Fella

Cool

Plagiarism is the sincerest form of flattery.

Mr._Pricklepants

wotsthat wrote: »

Did people take so many all or nothing bets before the internet?

Probably not. There's so much information at everyone's fingertips now, and for the not so bright among us, like brit, it must be quite a challenge to separate the wheat from the chaff.
He probably bases his investment decisions on whatever the topic is on the latest Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert show.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Corportate earnings have been disappointing recently. Main results season starts soon.

Have they?

I watched a bit of Bloomberg this morning - 4 companies issued results all up YoY but they were 'disappointing' only because they didn't meet analyst expectations. Far too much emphasis is being placed on what analysts think - they're consistently wrong and seem to be easily side-tracked by short term sentiment.

I always look at Sky numbers (released today) as an indication of the behaviour of the skint British consumer....

http://corporate.sky.com/documents/pdf/latest_results/q2_press_release_201213.pdf

They've now reached 10.74 million customers (up 271,000 YoY) at an average spend of £55/ month.

Doubt whether this is proof positive of an impending bull run but it's at odds with the gloom & doom stories in the media.

System

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Yes, he is wrong
Sometimes I get it wrong too.
The issue with this poster is he spreads his 'wisdom' all over the forums, including the house buying and investment boards, advising forum members to hold off buying property, sell this or that asset and other disastrous financial advice. This is a moneysaving forum and therefore it's right to expose this poster as a complete muppet.

A fair point.

On the plus side, you could have genuinely made a lot of money by doing the opposite of everything brit says.

IronWolf

There's lots of optimisim in the city at the moment. Expectations are of a bull market, which considering the interest rates at the moment isn't so unrealistic. I've heard FTSE at 10,000 mentioned in 2-5 years.

Think I prefer it around 5000 personally so I can pick up some bargains.

DervProf

I sold some funds a few weeks ago, and "banked" a reasonable profit (thinking that the recent rise in the markets would soome cease). Since then the markets have continued upwards. The truth is that no one can say for sure where the markets are going to be in the future. That's why I continue to invest monthly, and look to the longer term.

If brit sold his shares and took a profit, he should be happy with that, rather than thinking "what could have been".

Generali

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Markets look ahead. Consumers look at today.

Ony consumers are chasing the bull. Many fund managers are taking profits while expecting a dip.

We're still bullish on equities albeit with caveats about not being so overweight and also perhaps that they are a little overbought for 2013 earnings (we're very positive on 2014 earnings). The company line is that we might see some dips in prices in 2013 as prices are a little toppy in some cases then a bit of steam will get behind the market in the second half of the year.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Corportate earnings have been disappointing recently. Main results season starts soon.

I'm not sure about the UK but in the US (the place that matters a lot to markets everywhere else), positive earnings surprises have outnumbered negative ones very heavily, by at least 2:1 according to my dodgy memory. The results season there is in full swing.

Generali

DervProf wrote: »

I sold some funds a few weeks ago, and "banked" a reasonable profit (thinking that the recent rise in the markets would soome cease). Since then the markets have continued upwards. The truth is that no one can say for sure where the markets are going to be in the future. That's why I continue to invest monthly, and look to the longer term.

If brit sold his shares and took a profit, he should be happy with that, rather than thinking "what could have been".

There are 2 truisms to investing:

1. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit.
2. Leave 10% [of the capital gain] on the table for the next guy as you're not smart enough to pick the top.

There are also 2 golden rules to investing which Brit also seems to have remembered:

1. Never lose money.
2. Never forget the Golden rule.

Conrad

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

???

Yeah he could well be wrong, I think he probably will be wrong,

Yippee!!

Lets all dance with joy that someone has made a call and is going to lose his/her money.

What is the matter with you??

The point being he's also very wrong about property prices but is so blinded by confirmation bias he fails to see reality.

Property is now on a bull run, you can Bank on it.

Conrad

Generali wrote: »

There are 2 truisms to investing:

1. Nobody ever went broke taking a profit.

I 'cunningly' sold my B2L's in 06/07 and took a modest profit but it was a terrible error tbh. Had I stayed put like all my non thinking unconcerned clients I would have enjoyed ultra lower tracker rates and a significant monthly profit.

Ok I avoided going broke as you say, but jumping too quickly is an easy way to miss out on 'best days'.