UK GDP Preliminary Estimate Q4 2012 -0.3%

worldtraveller

The UK GDP Preliminary Estimate for Q4 2012 has come in from the ONS at -0.3%.

• GDP was estimated to have decreased by 0.3% in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012.
• Output of the production industries was estimated to have decreased by 1.8% in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012, following an increase of 0.7% between Q2 2012 and Q3 2012.
• Construction sector output was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012, following a decrease of 2.5% between Q2 2012 and Q3 2012.
• Output of the service industries was estimated to have been flat in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012, following an increase of 1.2% between Q2 2012 and Q3 2012.
• GDP was estimated to have been flat in Q4 2012, when compared with Q4 2011.
• GDP is estimated to have been flat between 2011 and 2012. Users are, however, reminded that this figure is subject to revision in the second estimate of GDP when all quarters of 2012 are open for revision.

ONS

dryhat

Totally meaningless and not worth discussing.

Graham_Devon

Surprisingly, the services sector was flat.

This is, as the news is stating, the majority of the UK economy. Also, somewhat surprisingly, construction rose, however, it was from a very low base.

Generali

In the ONS's own words:

• GDP was estimated to have decreased by 0.3% in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012.
• Output of the production industries was estimated to have decreased by 1.8% in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012, following an increase of 0.7% between Q2 2012 and Q3 2012.
• Construction sector output was estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012, following a decrease of 2.5% between Q2 2012 and Q3 2012.
• Output of the service industries was estimated to have been flat in Q4 2012 compared with Q3 2012, following an increase of 1.2% between Q2 2012 and Q3 2012.
• GDP was estimated to have been flat in Q4 2012, when compared with Q4 2011.
• GDP is estimated to have been flat between 2011 and 2012. Users are, however, reminded that this figure is subject to revision in the second estimate of GDP when all quarters of 2012 are open for revision.

Mr._Pricklepants

Fingers crossed for a Q1/13 negative...triple dip...yammy yammy...shorty, devon et al will be salivating all over their keyboards.

shortchanged_2

No surprises really. There was no way the UK economy was going to show growth after the Olympics boost of the previous quarter.

The big thing now is will the UK economy be able to grow from this point in the next quarter. Touch and go I feel.

Whilst I know some people will say we base too much emphasis on GDP and that we can't expect to achieve much growth, the main point about the growth of the economy or expected growth is that the budgets are planned on the growth figures and this is why the UK is now on this slippery slope because we keep missing our growth figures hence why the deficit is not improving.

gorgeyetsun

With reassuring economic news like this, my mortgage rate is safe and therefore so is my overpayment challenge.

sheffield_lad

We are set for at least 10 years of bumping along the bottom so get used to above and below 1% but I can't see us going much above 2% within this period, but that's a whole lot better than our euro neighbours who have reduced living standards to look forward to.

We need to increase productivity and gain export ground by taking orders from Germany who currently hold all the aces.

shortchanged_2

howee wrote: »

We are set for at least 10 years of bumping along the bottom so get used to above and below 1% but I can't see us going much above 2% within this period, but that's a whole lot better than our euro neighbours who have reduced living standards to look forward to.

We need to increase productivity and gain export ground by taking orders from Germany who currently hold all the aces.

Intesting. Someone who is usually pretty bullish about the economy is now not looking so positive.

gorgeyetsun

howee wrote: »

We are set for at least 10 years of bumping along the bottom so get used to above and below 1% but I can't see us going much above 2% within this period, but that's a whole lot better than our euro neighbours who have reduced living standards to look forward to.

We need to increase productivity and gain export ground by taking orders from Germany who currently hold all the aces.

Is that 10 years from now or 10 years from the start of the problems in 2008?

Wookster

Is it about time to say that Osborne's economic strategy is not working?

I think we're not far off....