House prices to fall 5% in 2013

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Yet you'll never ever say that to Hamish on one of many EU threads....it's bizzare, couldn't possibly think why!

What you think I agree with all of Hamish's views on the EU?

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/58628013#Comment_58628013

Not that that's much to do with anything.

You either try and influence change or accept the change that's imposed upon you.

When NIMBY's are scouring the planning applications looking for housing being built I bet they don't sit at home thinking there's nothing they can do about it?

Graham_Devon

ess0two wrote: »

You gotta admit,that was a great bit of banter for a dull Tuesday in Janury 2013.

It was, why do you think I posted a capital economics prediction!?

J_i_m

Breaking news!

Self professed experts predict speculative forum threads about house prices to drop by 17% before 2015.

Well.... One can have a dream eh?

pop_gun

Will the government allow a drop of 5% in anything but real terms. The new home ownership scheme will stimulate the housing market (depending on how much the government is willing to invest) and prevent some of the expected falls, while lowering interest rates, may even see prices go up.

Without state intervention house prices fall\crash. With it, the market will enjoy many years of artificial booms.

IveSeenTheLight

pop_gun wrote: »

Will the government allow a drop of 5% in anything but real terms. The new home ownership scheme will stimulate the housing market (depending on how much the government is willing to invest) and prevent some of the expected falls, while lowering interest rates, may even see prices go up.

Without state intervention house prices fall\crash. With it, the market will enjoy many years of artificial booms.

I guess you have to consider what the government gets out of supporting property.

It has to be a vote winner with so many homeowners and industry based around property.

There's also a financial consideration with regards to the stamp duty and inheritance tax that property provides.

There is the saying that you have to invest to see a return, that's what the government are effectively doing.

Niv

MacMickster wrote: »

Well maybe I have been unlucky. I have lived in my current home for over 20 years now, but looking back through my bills since the millenium (so 13 years) I have had the following work done in that time. Some work was planned and budgeted for. Some was for urgent repairs.

New windows throughout.
Flat roof on garage and 2 extensions replaced.
New leading on top of bay window due to leak.
TV aerial repaired twice following storm damage.
A few roof tiles replaced following storm damage.
Garden fence replaced.
New power shower when old electric shower went kaput (and I took the opportunity to have a new shower cubicle installed at the same time).
New kitchen (the old one was around 30 years old and showing its age).
New heating boiler and 2 replacement radiators.
2 new washing machines and 1 new dishwasher.
Boiler repair on one occasion plus annual servicing.
Replacement gas fire.
Installation of security lights.
Replacement garage door.
New carpets/flooring in most rooms in the house.
Various minor plumbing jobs.
Redecoration of 2 or 3 rooms in the house each year (Mrs MacMickster won't let me get away with less).

In the coming months I will be having the ridge tiles on the roof reset and some repointing work done, plus renewing the garden shed which now consists of more patched up areas than original woodwork.

Also, the house was built in the mid 1930s and still has the original tiled roof. As a tiled roof is expected to last only 50 to 70 years (and it is already older than that) and a couple in the street have already been replaced, then it is likely to need re-roofing within the next 5 years. The electrical wiring was last replaced in the early 1970s, so may well need rewiring within the next decade.

I would regard all of the above as ordinary maintenance, and think that you must have been very lucky to have so little expenditure in 7 years. Don't count on it continuing. Maintenance is part of the cost of home ownership.

When essential maintenance is raised (particularly on this site) it is often when comparing the cost of ownership to renting. Although I agree that alot of the items you mention above would in my opinion be essential a number of them are desirable. The way I split between essential and desirable is this; would you do this work on your tenanted propery (if you had one) or to put it another way is it actually essential, is the house 'failing' due to lack of this work.

So, from your list the following is not what I class as essential maintenance to a house:

Annual decoration of 3 rooms a year - very much a choice (although not yours ;-P)
Installation of security lights - its a choice not essential maintenance

Washing machines and dishwashers are not essential maintenance to a house, in many cases if you rent this cost is still incurred.

You mention storm damage related repairs, did this cost you or was it an insurance job? From the descriptions I would have just done it myself tbh (I mean not through insurance).

I did a VERY rough guess (based on some previous works I have had done and a quote I have outstanding) to how much the essential maintenance may have cost from your list and came to ~£10k + kitchen + carpets. I didnt cost those as some people buy a £500 kitchen some a £30k one - what is the essential element of this and what is the desirable?

Just to make clear, my house isnt a modern - not a 'will never need any work done' type place, it is build in the mid 1800's. My previous figures wernt made up, maybe I have been lucky or maybe the next 10 years are going to be expensive !

Not trying to split hairs too much here (as I am seeing this is a debate - I am not saying i am right / you are wrong here) but out of interest, you have been in your place 20years and have given a breakdown of what you have done in the last 13, I understand that is the same period I used (but that is my total time in home ownership). Did you have much essential maintenacne in your first 7 years at your current home? And I mean things that wernt used to lower the price you paid for the place etc.

BUT on top of all that I do admit that if I live in my current home for 20 years (like you have with yours) the kichen and carpets will need replacing and other things can (and likely will) go wrong.

Sibley

You keep willing house prices to crash.
Now you are really going to get yours. Big rises on the way.

Graham and the HPC gang will be smacked firmly into place. You either save and improve your lot or get priced out..

No free meals in the housing market for you.

Get that ladder up Jack...

Conrad

A letting agent operates from my offices and so I see day to day that on the whole most LL's are doing well out of it, particularly those that have 10 or more properties and have been at a while. For those, even with mortagages, we find annual income profits are c £100k pa.

I personally prefer investing in small flats as costs in the long run tend to be pretty low.