Solar ... In the news

Verdigris

Now wondering whether to wait for panel glut before installing solar (not really).

michaels

Martyn1981 said:

Simply staggering prediction for PV production capacity to reach approx 1TWp pa by 2030.

For scale, at a UK capacity factor of around 11%, that would be equal to about 1/25th of the World's current leccy demand. For countries with higher cf's and single axis tracking, it would be closer to 1/10th. And just to stress the point here, that's 1/10th pa, just from PV alone. Hope they are right.

Glut Of Solar Panels Is Coming In 2025

Just in time for peak oil, Rethink Energy predicts that there will be a surge of new polysilicon production capacity coming online in the next two years, leading to a glut of solar panels by 2025.

The production capacity of solar panels is expected to exceed 1,000 GW per year by 2030. Pledges made by several dozen companies should see production capacity triple over the next three years. An expansion to nearly 4 million tons of solar-grade polysilicon production capacity will have been announced just in the last few weeks alone. Running at two-thirds capacity utilization would be enough to manufacturer 900 GW of photovoltaics every year.

What I missed first read is that is not installed capacity of say 10% of global electricity demand, it is annual addition of 10% pa.

Can't be bothered to google but are we likely to see thin film PV even at relatively low efficiency that for example could go on fences, walls etc and just get chucked if they get damaged.

Martyn1981

michaels said:

Martyn1981 said:

Simply staggering prediction for PV production capacity to reach approx 1TWp pa by 2030.

For scale, at a UK capacity factor of around 11%, that would be equal to about 1/25th of the World's current leccy demand. For countries with higher cf's and single axis tracking, it would be closer to 1/10th. And just to stress the point here, that's 1/10th pa, just from PV alone. Hope they are right.

Glut Of Solar Panels Is Coming In 2025

Just in time for peak oil, Rethink Energy predicts that there will be a surge of new polysilicon production capacity coming online in the next two years, leading to a glut of solar panels by 2025.

The production capacity of solar panels is expected to exceed 1,000 GW per year by 2030. Pledges made by several dozen companies should see production capacity triple over the next three years. An expansion to nearly 4 million tons of solar-grade polysilicon production capacity will have been announced just in the last few weeks alone. Running at two-thirds capacity utilization would be enough to manufacturer 900 GW of photovoltaics every year.

What I missed first read is that is not installed capacity of say 10% of global electricity demand, it is annual addition of 10% pa.

Can't be bothered to google but are we likely to see thin film PV even at relatively low efficiency that for example could go on fences, walls etc and just get chucked if they get damaged.

Yeah, it was hard to word it well, but my rough guessing on output means that the PV sold/installed in 2030, just that year alone, could be equal to about 1/10th of current worldwide leccy demand.

Again, just made up numbers, but if 1,000GWp in 2030, then let's low ball before that at an average of 400GWp x 8 years, so around 2,400GWp, or 2.4TWp, which at say 20%cf would roughly be 4,200TWh's equal to about 17% of current wortldwide leccy demand.

These really are big numbers. And to repeat something I said recently on another thread, never bet against the curve, the cost reduction curves and growth curves look slow at first, such as BEV's growing from 1% to 2% to 4%, but 100% annual growth is actually enormous but we don't really notice it till the curve goes exponential and we see the 'S'.

[I think I recall something about wall mounted PV recently, I'll track it down.]

Martyn1981

Can't find an article, but this link to Woodhaven Middle School in Alberta Canada shows (visually) the wall mounted PV that's been added to the side of the gym, and they already have PV on that roof.

And might as well make it a twofer, with a reference to a 5yr old story about BIPV (built in PV):

The school with the largest solar facade in the world

Martyn1981

Talking about PV ramping up, this story fits very well. In early 2019 the energy company Florida Power & Light (FPL) announced it's 30 by 30 initiative to install 30m solar panels by 2030. It has just announced it's slightly ahead of schedule and now aiming for 30m by 2025.

Florida Power & Light To Install 30 Million Solar Panels By 2025

Florida Power & Light (FPL), which is owned by NextEra Energy, announced that it is ahead of schedule on it “30-by-30” initiative. Officially launched in early 2019, FPL made the goal to install 30 million solar panels in Florida by 2030. Now, it expects to do it by 2025.

But sadly, can't really mention FPL and PV without pointing to how much they are trying to obstruct demand side PV, after all, if you were morally bankrupt and ran a power company in Florida, would you want customers installing PV?

Revealed: the Florida power company pushing legislation to slow rooftop solar

The biggest power company in the US is pushing policy changes that would hamstring rooftop solar power in Florida, delivering legislation for a state lawmaker to introduce, according to records obtained by the Miami Herald and Floodlight.

JKenH

Martyn1981 said:

Talking about PV ramping up, this story fits very well. In early 2019 the energy company Florida Power & Light (FPL) announced it's 30 by 30 initiative to install 30m solar panels by 2030. It has just announced it's slightly ahead of schedule and now aiming for 30m by 2025.

Florida Power & Light To Install 30 Million Solar Panels By 2025

Florida Power & Light (FPL), which is owned by NextEra Energy, announced that it is ahead of schedule on it “30-by-30” initiative. Officially launched in early 2019, FPL made the goal to install 30 million solar panels in Florida by 2030. Now, it expects to do it by 2025.

But sadly, can't really mention FPL and PV without pointing to how much they are trying to obstruct demand side PV, after all, if you were morally bankrupt and ran a power company in Florida, would you want customers installing PV?

Revealed: the Florida power company pushing legislation to slow rooftop solar

The biggest power company in the US is pushing policy changes that would hamstring rooftop solar power in Florida, delivering legislation for a state lawmaker to introduce, according to records obtained by the Miami Herald and Floodlight.

As a solar panel owner I would love to have net metering. (I did in fact have it for a few weeks after my solar install  before my meter was changed). From a financial point of view would it eliminate the need for domestic batteries.

I can see why the utility doesn’t like it though and it might be seen as unfair to other electricity consumers. If you have a large solar array you might be a net exporter but still enjoy the grid infrastructure at no cost. The cost to the utilities of generating power is usually at its highest when renewables aren’t generating and that burden would fall on other customers.

QrizB

JKenH said:

As a solar panel owner I would love to have net metering. (I did in fact have it for a few weeks after my solar install  before my meter was changed). From a financial point of view would it eliminate the need for domestic batteries.
I can see why the utility doesn’t like it though and it might be seen as unfair to other electricity consumers. If you have a large solar array you might be a net exporter but still enjoy the grid infrastructure at no cost. The cost to the utilities of generating power is usually at its highest when renewables aren’t generating and that burden would fall on other customers.

Net metering would work effectively in conjunction with a smart tariff, allowing import or export to be priced at the wholesale rate for that 30-minute slot. If you export in cheap hours and import in expensive ones you'll end up paying for the difference.

You'd also need a "standing charge" that genuinely reflects the fixed costs associated with providing a grid connection and administrating the account.

Octopus Agile plus Outgoing Agile is the closest to net metering that I'm aware of, but there's a (variable) difference of around 10-15p/kWh between import and export that would, ideally, get moved to the standing charge instead.

JKenH

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

As a solar panel owner I would love to have net metering. (I did in fact have it for a few weeks after my solar install  before my meter was changed). From a financial point of view would it eliminate the need for domestic batteries.
I can see why the utility doesn’t like it though and it might be seen as unfair to other electricity consumers. If you have a large solar array you might be a net exporter but still enjoy the grid infrastructure at no cost. The cost to the utilities of generating power is usually at its highest when renewables aren’t generating and that burden would fall on other customers.

Net metering would work effectively in conjunction with a smart tariff, allowing import or export to be priced at the wholesale rate for that 30-minute slot. If you export in cheap hours and import in expensive ones you'll end up paying for the difference.

You'd also need a "standing charge" that genuinely reflects the fixed costs associated with providing a grid connection and administrating the account.

Octopus Agile plus Outgoing Agile is the closest to net metering that I'm aware of, but there's a (variable) difference of around 10-15p/kWh between import and export that would, ideally, get moved to the standing charge instead.

That wouldn’t then be net metering.

Wikipedia on net metering.

Net metering (or net energy metering, NEM) is an electricity billing mechanism that allows consumers who generate some or all of their own electricity to use that electricity anytime, instead of when it is generated. This is particularly important with renewable energy sources like wind and solar, which are non-dispatchable(when not coupled to storage). Monthly net metering allows consumers to use solar power generated during the day at night, or wind from a windy day later in the month. Annual net metering rolls over a net kilowatt-hour (kWh) credit to the following month, allowing solar power that was generated in July to be used in December, or wind power from March in August.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_metering

QrizB

JKenH said:

QrizB said:

JKenH said:

As a solar panel owner I would love to have net metering. (I did in fact have it for a few weeks after my solar install  before my meter was changed). From a financial point of view would it eliminate the need for domestic batteries.
I can see why the utility doesn’t like it though and it might be seen as unfair to other electricity consumers. If you have a large solar array you might be a net exporter but still enjoy the grid infrastructure at no cost. The cost to the utilities of generating power is usually at its highest when renewables aren’t generating and that burden would fall on other customers.

Net metering would work effectively in conjunction with a smart tariff, allowing import or export to be priced at the wholesale rate for that 30-minute slot. If you export in cheap hours and import in expensive ones you'll end up paying for the difference.

You'd also need a "standing charge" that genuinely reflects the fixed costs associated with providing a grid connection and administrating the account.

Octopus Agile plus Outgoing Agile is the closest to net metering that I'm aware of, but there's a (variable) difference of around 10-15p/kWh between import and export that would, ideally, get moved to the standing charge instead.

That wouldn’t then be net metering.

My apologies, I mistook this for a discussion of fairer ways to meter demand-side generation.

Swan_Valley

UK 'adds 730MW of new solar in 2021'

"The UK added 730MW of new solar capacity in 2021, an increase of 36% on 2020 when 538MW was installed, according to Solar Energy UK.

Total PV capacity in the UK is now 14.6GW, up 5.3% on 2020.

Some 369MW installed in 2021 was rooftop solar, the highest total since 2015, said Solar Energy UK.

It added that the new growth in the rooftop sector is fully subsidy-free."