Solar ... In the news

michaels

I don't think using car batteries for storage is as problematical as people think. Experience seems to show that it is using batteries to their wxtremes 100% full or 0% that causes degredation, cycles between say 80% and 20% it appears have negligible impact on battery life.

This means the owner of a 200 mile range ev who generally only travels 60 miles a day has plenty of scope to use part of the battery capacity as storage on the days where they are only doing shorter journeys and can opt out and fully charge if they do need the 200 miles on specific days.

silverwhistle

I honestly don't know, battery technology is changing so rapidly! But there needs to be some commercial or political driver to make things happen, and that's where we seem to be lacking at the moment.

But your second paragraph is exactly my point, and even deferring charging is going to help the grid.

Martyn1981

Interesting idea here, it's basically offering a PPA (power purchase agreement) to housing association properties to lower their energy bills.

If it scales up it could potentially double the current UK PV rollout, which is really poor.

Solarplicity readies significant low-subsidy housing association solar model

Martyn1981

Trump keeps digging coal, but wants solar on the wall with Mexico

Donald Trump was heard to suggest the use of solar panels to repay the cost of building an anti-immigrant wall with Mexico in a conversation with congressional leaders, according to CNN citing sources familiar with the matter.

President Trump, on the other hand, has also dismissed solar as unreliable and unworkable, as well as having removed any reference to solar from the White House website.

Words escape me!

Martyn1981

Potential subsidy free supply side PV could be on the horizon. The rise of power purchase agreements (PPA's) where the leccy is sold directly from generator to consumer, seems to be working well. The price is above wholesale, but below retail, win win, unless you are a leccy supply company losing turnover.

NextEnergy sets sights on subsidy-free solar with development project purchase

Martyn1981

If only we had a government that was willing to support PV in the UK. The costs are still falling, and had the industry not been destroyed by government policy in 2015/16 then we may well be seeing cheaper demand and supply side PV.

The current UK PV farms contracts issued at £80/MWh in 2015 (now £83-£85) are 'like so 2015' now.

German auction prices were similar in 2015 (about €91/MWh) but have kept falling in auction after auction, they are now down to €57/MWh (£50/MWh).

Germany’s auction for large-scale solar concludes with average price of €0.0566/kWh

The government/NAO estimate UK wholesale leccy prices going above £50/MWh in 2020, peaking at £70/MWh in 2027, before dropping to £60/MWh in 2035.

So £50 PV in the UK would go subsidy free from 2020 onwards. In fact if PV was installed at £50 today, and top up's it got under the CfD mechanism before 2020, could well be paid back from the return of any income above £50 later on. So possibly net subsidy free today.

Whilst I'd rather see PV installed on the demand side, rather than the supply side, this government's approach means that too little is being installed anywhere, and that's also preventing prices from falling as far as they should for all sides of the industry.

NigeWick

Martyn,
I keep having a dig at my MP but he is resisting so far. I'll know I'm getting to him when he (his staff more likely) stops answering my e-mails.

Martyn1981

NigeWick wrote: »

Martyn,
I keep having a dig at my MP but he is resisting so far. I'll know I'm getting to him when he (his staff more likely) stops answering my e-mails.

Weird isn't it. Potentially subsidy free (net subsidy free) on-shore wind and PV today, or new nuclear in 10yrs time receiving approx £40/MWh in subsidies for 35yrs = £1bn pa, just for Hinkley Point C.

HPC would add 7% of our leccy, whilst RE has gone from 5% to 25% in the last 10yrs, and should be accelerating, with more generation for the same money, or the same generation for less money.

The CfD results from April's auction should be out in September, if off-shore wind goes sub HPC (for 2021 delivery and 15yr subsidy) the government is going to have trouble explaining any more nuclear unless a far cheaper deal materialises.

ed110220

Martyn1981 wrote: »

Weird isn't it. Potentially subsidy free (net subsidy free) on-shore wind and PV today, or new nuclear in 10yrs time receiving approx £40/MWh in subsidies for 35yrs = £1bn pa, just for Hinkley Point C.

HPC would add 7% of our leccy, whilst RE has gone from 5% to 25% in the last 10yrs, and should be accelerating, with more generation for the same money, or the same generation for less money.

The CfD results from April's auction should be out in September, if off-shore wind goes sub HPC (for 2021 delivery and 15yr subsidy) the government is going to have trouble explaining any more nuclear unless a far cheaper deal materialises.

Perplexing isn't it? Also interesting is BP's world energy review of 2016 which shows nuclear showing by far the smallest year on year increase in output of all low carbon energy sources and also the worst performance over a longer period. They break them down into oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro and non-hydro renewables. In fact only coal, which has actually declined, is worse.

If nuclear still makes sense anywhere it is in China where a large state involvement in the economy gives such capital intensive and long term investment projects as nuclear power stations more of an advantage. But even in China non hydro renewables are growing faster.

Martyn1981

Some world wide information.

1. Wind and solar to ‘dominate’ future of electricity by 2040

Renewable energy is indeed the future, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s latest report, which forecasts technologies such as wind and solar to “dominate” the future of electricity by 2040, making up 48% of the world’s installed capacity and 34% of electricity generation.

“This year’s report suggests that the greening of the world’s electricity system is unstoppable, thanks to rapidly falling costs for solar and wind power, and a growing role for batteries, including those in electric vehicles, in balancing supply and demand,” said Seb Henbest, lead author of NEO 2017 at BNEF.

Renewable energy-generated electricity will rise 169% by 2040, and reach 74% penetration in Germany, 38% in the US, 55% in China and 49% in India.

Quick run through of the graph suggests a change from 2016 to 2040 of:
Fossil fuels moving from 64% to 39%
Solar and Wind, 6% to 34%
Other renewables, 20% to 17%
Nuclear, 10% to 9%


2. BNEF: Coal to fade as cost of renewables falls even faster

The latest long-term forecast from analysts Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) predicts solar energy costs to drop a further 66% by 2040, and onshore wind by 47%. Given these predictions, BNEF expect that renewables will undercut the majority of fossil based generation by 2030, even in India and China.

And a great result for all those countries that supported the FiT scheme and helped to get the ball rolling on solar:-

BNEF’s report predicts that global emissions to peak in 2026 and then start to fall, as coal fired power starts to fizzle out in India and China. The former country’s speed in adopting solar as a mainstream power source led BNEF to adjust its outlook for India’s emissions down by 44% over the 2016 New Energy Outlook.