Solar ... In the news

silverwhistle

Not particularly solar, but an article on the BBC website about 'Is your power supply about to run out' - one of various pieces in the news recently. http://www.bbc.co.uk/guides/zqnyg82
One of the sections is titled 'can we avert the power crisis' and offers 4 solutions to deal with the next 10 years: nuclear, fracking, wind and reducing demand. It's actually positive about the latter.

Surely if this were combined with increasing solar it would make it an even better solution. Most of us with solar are already aware of our usage and have efficient appliances and lighting and use them at appropriate times. I'm quite happy to defer a wash for a day or two, for example.

It seems strange at a time when the prospects of outages exist that the easily ramped up technologies of solar and to a slightly lesser extent wind are being the subject of a campaign against 'green subsidies' and policies are also impacted. You'll be aware of all the stuff in the press: just like the demonisation of benefits they've moved on to similar campaign on green energy.

Maybe I will set up my own battery system! ;-)

warrenb

Well we all know the cut is coming, it is just how much and when.
I can't see them cutting FiT before the end of September and suspect it will be cut to around 5-7p after the September update.

Martyn1981

warrenb wrote: »

Well we all know the cut is coming, it is just how much and when.
I can't see them cutting FiT before the end of September and suspect it will be cut to around 5-7p after the September update.

It's going to be interesting, to say the least.

What's weird is that the degression policy for PV is pretty brutal, but the rate of installs has been pretty low, so FiTs has remained higher than it needs, whilst at the same time its impact from new installs is quite small. I think folk have started to wake up to just how high the returns now are.

If installs were to breach the 150MWp level (or 200 or 250) then we'd see a rapid reduction in FiTs with 7% (14% or even 28%) cuts each quarter.

10p - Personally I've been saying for a year that a 10p rate would be fine. But most people don't know how good the returns are.

7p - is tougher, but still works well for southern based, south facing 4kWp systems - £280 FiT, £100 Export, £120 leccy savings. £500 income on an investment of £5k to £6k. But 7p would be really hard for those further north or with off-south orientations.

5p - very tough, but again, for southern, south facing installs it will still work (£420 income) but only with a good install price. I wouldn't expect many to rush for this.

What is important though is that 5p would be a very harsh move today (perhaps by 2020, but harsh today) as that is effectively un-subsidised. What?

Well, the average price of leccy generation is ~£50/MWh (5p/kWh) but this ignores current nuclear subsidies, CO2 costs, and pollution impacts. It also doesn't include current subsides (PV, wind etc). The real price is probably nearer £100/MWh. If that extra 5p/kWh is applied to our bills, it would mean every kWh of PV generation earned an additional 5p either as export or leccy savings. So a 5p FiT is pretty much unsubsidised, a target which seems a little unreasonable today ...... but not in the short to medium term.

My bet - the government will go in hard and damage the industry just when the finish line is in sight!

Mart.

warrenb

But I also think when is very important, do they phase the cuts over the next year, go for a massive cut in October, or really screw things up and go for a cut immediately.

I also think they will go hard, which is silly really because I would rather pay a subsidy to a person living in the UK than to a Nationalised French company like EDF for nuclear.

Martyn1981

warrenb wrote: »

But I also think when is very important, do they phase the cuts over the next year, go for a massive cut in October, or really screw things up and go for a cut immediately.

I also think they will go hard, which is silly really because I would rather pay a subsidy to a person living in the UK than to a Nationalised French company like EDF for nuclear.

It's a no win for the govt. If they announce cuts in the future, they might trigger another goldrush similar to late 2011/early 2012. Their best bet would have been to talk up the benefits of domestic PV and help trigger the larger degressions. Several 14% cuts or a couple of 28% cuts and the rate would be 7p anyway! Plus they could have spun it as good news, resulting from the popularity of PV and 'our' green policies. Instead, the majority of Britons don't know there are PV subsidies, or that they are worth doing.

Here's a news update from today, but it doesn't add much:

Fresh doubt over future of CfDs as FiT announcement expected ‘shortly’

couple of interesting lines:

The onshore wind industry was also dealt another, albeit expected, blow when the secretary said she "expected" the technology to be absent from all future CfD rounds should they go ahead.

Makes you want to cry! And:

Rudd was equally vague on the future of the feed-in tariff but did confirm that an announcement was to be made “shortly”, with rumours regarding an announcement in the coming weeks refusing to abate. National newspapers have again carried stories on the back of leaks from within the department and the Daily Telegraph reported on Saturday that an announcement could be forthcoming this week.

How bad can it be? :shocked:

Mart.

warrenb

Well I have an install pencilled in for the 3rd August, so if they can hold off for just a couple of weeks I would be happy.

warrenb

Looking at the latest news it looks like we may get a FiT announcement tomorrow.

theboylard

And it's landed.... Small solar farms get no subsidy from April next year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33619017

warrenb

So it looks like FiT for roof installs is safe for now. Having a look at the FiT consultation paper on the DECC website, they wish to remove pre-accreditation for systems of 50kw or less.

ed110220

warrenb wrote: »

So it looks like FiT for roof installs is safe for now. Having a look at the FiT consultation paper on the DECC website, they wish to remove pre-accreditation for systems of 50kw or less.

I guess this fits the government's logic which seems to be to pander to a vocal anti wind farm anti solar farm minority in rural Tory seats. Even if it means discouraging the cheaper forms of low carbon electricity and then dressing it up in anti-subsidy talk.