Solar ... In the news

Martyn1981

BNEF forecasts a huge increase in PV as prices drop, but also forecasts that the switch to renewables will not be fast enough:

FIVE SEISMIC SHIFTS TO SHAKE GLOBAL ELECTRICITY OVER NEXT 25 YEARS

The small-scale solar boom will see worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. This will be made possible by a 47% crash in the cost of solar projects per megawatt, as conversion efficiencies improve and the industry moves to new materials and more streamlined production methods.

BNEF’s forecast sees onshore wind reaching 1.8TW globally by 2040, up five-fold, utility-scale PV 1.9TW, up 24-fold, offshore wind 198GW, up 25-fold, and “flexible capacity” (ways of balancing variable renewable sources on the grid, including batteries, demand response and fast ramp-up gas generation) reaching 858GW, up 17-fold. Nevertheless, even in 2040, fossil fuels will still account for 44% of world generation (down from 67% in 2014).

The result is that, with global electricity generation rising by 56% between 2014 and 2040 as economies develop and populations grow, global power sector emissions will increase from 13.1 gigatonnes to a peak of 15.3Gt in 2029. Greater burning of coal by developing countries will more than offset the substitution of coal-firing by gas and renewables in developed economies. World emissions will then fall back, but only to 14.8Gt in 2040, still 13% above 2014 levels.

Seb Henbest, head of Europe, Middle East and Africa for Bloomberg New Energy Finance and lead author of NEO 2015, said: “The CO2 content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035 even if emissions stay constant, so the trend we show of rising emissions to 2029 makes it very unlikely that the world will be able to limit temperature increases to less than two degrees Centigrade.

Mart.

Martyn1981

Here's a fun tool recently mentioned on Navitron.

It gives a forecast of UK PV generation.

Solar Forecast

Great fun for everyone. Pv'ers can enjoy looking at when and what will be generated, and the anti-PV crowd can use it to point out that PV doesn't generate at night!

Mart.

Martyn1981

Further to last post. Looks like we can expect peaks of around 4 to 6GW of PV generation each day this week. So I took a look at Gridwatch.

Unfortunately the UK site doesn't show PV yet (the French site does, lovely curve yesterday).

However, looking at the demand curve, I note that the gentle upwards curve from 8am to 4pm, now seems to show a flat or slight downwards curve. This might reflect demand side PV, reducing demand on the grid.

Also, I note a slight downwards curve in the gas supply graph at that time, which might reflect lower demand, and increased supply side PV.

It's a shame that UK Gridwatch doesn't show PV yet, as the ~5GW of supply side PV would, like France, show up quite nicely on those graphs at this time of year. For contrast, yesterday the wind curve was running at around 1 to 2GW.

Mart.

Martyn1981

Article looking at PV and domestic storage. Nothing particularly new, but a good read to get an idea of where things are now.

Looks like things may start to get interesting towards the end of this decade.

The innovators: how smaller batteries give more power to UK solar households

Powervault, Tesla and other players in the emerging solar battery market aim to supply the means for householders to store energy produced during the sunniest part of the day for use at peak times, when more people are at home but the sun is down.

The missing link
Energy storage has been described as the missing link of solar energy adoption. A report from Deutsche Bank this year said solar energy storage would be cheap enough to be deployed on a large-scale within five years as a result of a yearly cost reduction of 20% to 30% in the price of lithium-ion batteries.

Mart.

Cardew

http://www.cps.org.uk/files/reports/original/150313101309-HowrenewablesubsidiesdestroyedtheUKelectricitymarket1.pdf

theboylard

Cardew wrote: »

http://www.cps.org.uk/files/reports/original/150313101309-HowrenewablesubsidiesdestroyedtheUKelectricitymarket1.pdf

Apart from the huge bias, what a poorly edited and proofed report!

Not even got past the glossary before my editing head almost exploded:

kW kilawatt
kW kilawatt hour

Oh, and your link is !!!! too, probably just as well with the distinct lack of quality on the end of it

silverwhistle

I didn't bother: it was a 404. Besides it was posted by Cardew and hence will be hugely biaised!

Martyn1981

silverwhistle wrote: »

I didn't bother: it was a 404. Besides it was posted by Cardew and hence will be hugely biaised!

To be fair, I think this is the first time Cardew has gone "full denier", I'm sure he's previously posted being minded to agree with AGW!

There is some good news. That report is very recent, but if you look at the projected CfD costs for wind (On and Off shore) and PV, you'll see they are much higher (£10 to £20/MWh) than the actual CfD auction results this year, demonstrating just how fast costs and subsidies are falling.


Regarding the report and author, here's some counter views:

DECC Response to the report by the Centre for Policy Studies

The report today by the Centre for Policy Studies ignores the reality of the energy market. It wrongly suggests that we can ditch renewables for gas, with no explanation of where we would source that from. It also appears to suggest that we should row back on the tremendous gains we have made in the fight on climate change. Given the dire consequences of global warming this is not an option.

Energy supply is a core part of keeping Great Britain great. In order to keep our hospitals, homes and factories running we need a reliable cost-effective power supply, and that’s why the Government is committed to developing sustainable energy.

The UK has some of the best wind, wave and tidal resources in Europe. By exploiting these renewable resources we can make a strong contribution to our future needs for secure and affordable low carbon energy.

By creating the world’s first low carbon electricity market, we are going green at the lowest cost, and attracting tens of billions of pounds of infrastructure investment, creating huge numbers of green jobs right across Britain.

Overall, our reforms mean that average annual household electricity bills will be around £41 lower over the period 2014 to 2030 than decarbonising without these changes. The bill impacts of these new contracts have already been accounted for and published.

Is A Climate Sceptic Behind The Latest Anti-Renewables Report?

Ignoring Reality

However, the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has this afternoon issued a rebuttal to the report, saying it ignores reality.

“The report today by the Centre for Policy Studies ignores the reality of the energy market,” DECC said. “It wrongly suggests that we can ditch renewables for gas, with no explanation of where we would source that from.

“It also appears to suggest that we should row back on the tremendous gains we have made in the fight on climate change. Given the dire consequences of global warming this is not an option.”

Figures 'Don't Add Up'

A DECC spokesman responding to the report earlier said: “The figures in this report don’t add up and ignore the urgent need to cut our carbon emissions. We are making sure we can keep the lights on, cut carbon emissions and keep bills down for consumers.”

Professor Catherine Mitchell, professor of energy policy at the University of Exeter, told the Daily Mail that the report “downplays climate change as a problem”.

And Dr Gordon Edge, director of policy at industry group RenewableUK, rejected Darwall’s analysis, telling Business Green that his “dogmatic refusal to countenance any action to reduce carbon emissions … leads him to offer a false choice” for the UK's energy future.

However, when someone suggested that Rupert Darwall was a perceptive chap, I couldn’t resist pointing out that this was only true if regarding complete nonsense as having merit, qualified as perceptive.

Mart.

ed110220

Ha, the Centre for Policy Studies, that's really scraping the barrel. Might as well cite the Heartland Institute or Lord Monckton.

These people for ideological/financial reasons take as their starting point that government must not 'interfere' in their god-given right to use the atmosphere as a dumping ground and then work back from there, mangling physics and everything else to fit their world view. They'd deny the shape of the Earth if they thought there was an advantage in it for them.

Ed

Martyn1981

Policy Exchange slams DECC over ‘reckless and wasteful’ management, recommends sweeping FiT cuts

Analysis conducted within the report has argued that the FiT could survive a cut to as little as 5p/kWh and still deliver a return of 7% - more than 8% if a Green Deal finance loan is taken to pay for installation – based on DECC cost assumptions of £1,522 per kW.

Policy Exchange argues that the current expected return of more than 12% per year is evidence that the small-scale FiT is “unnecessarily generous” and far exceeds DECC’s targeted return of between 5-8%, and that cutting the FiT would bring it back in line with expectations.

I did say a while back that a 10p FiT would still be very attractive, and 7p would still work fine for south facing properties in the southern half of the UK.

I reckon 5p is tight, but probably do-able now, though it might be seen as a pro-south anti-north policy change. Especially since domestic wind (that might favour the north (not sure?)) doesn't really work that well.

Speaking to Solar Power Portal earlier this week, energy and climate change secretary Amber Rudd acknowledged the budgetary overspend within the LCF and said the government was “looking carefully” at the cost of solar subsidies. In the coming months Rudd will lead both an in-depth review of the feed-in tariff and the allocation of resources under the second CfD round, scheduled to take place in October.

If Rudd's on the case, then that's probably the end of UK renewables!

Mart.