Any other home buyers in NI?

tara747

GlynD wrote: »

Tara I'm not going to get into a deep discussion about this. I just don't have the knowledge, nor do I have the inclination at the moment. The last time we discussed it I felt more passionate about the subject.

From where I'm sitting and from what I've heard on the news and elsewhere it does seem as if market recovery has started. Ok that may be largely bummed up to make it all sound great but there's always a kernel of truth.

I stand by what I said some months ago however; that you'd be doing yourself no harm to buy now because if prices haven't bottomed out, they're pretty close to it and I think within fives years you'd see the value of your property come up respectably. I can see that happening in my own area although things are still very slow. We've been here nearly four years now and sold prices have gone up about £10,000 for similar properties to ours.

I don't see any recovery, tbh. In the event of inflation taking off, or signs of UK economic recovery, the new BOE chief's actions will be interesting. He seems likely to raise IRs if the figures go in the right direction (even if the recovery isn't being felt by the 'man in the street'). And NI's recovery is likely to be slower than the rest of the UK. So we could feel a lot of pain when that happens. House prices in NI have fallen by more than 50% at a time when IRs have been at record lows. When IRs rise, all bets are off. :eek:

But I don't have a crystal ball, so I will stand corrected if I'm wrong. What I do have is a good chunk of savings, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is and not touching it just yet.

GlynD

tara747 wrote: »

I don't see any recovery, tbh. In the event of inflation taking off, or signs of UK economic recovery, the new BOE chief's actions will be interesting. He seems likely to raise IRs if the figures go in the right direction (even if the recovery isn't being felt by the 'man in the street'). And NI's recovery is likely to be slower than the rest of the UK. So we could feel a lot of pain when that happens. House prices in NI have fallen by more than 50% at a time when IRs have been at record lows. When IRs rise, all bets are off. :eek:

But I don't have a crystal ball, so I will stand corrected if I'm wrong. What I do have is a good chunk of savings, and I'm putting my money where my mouth is and not touching it just yet.

I can't argue with a word you've said but (there's always a but) if anyone was thinking of buying, now wouldn't be a bad time to buy. Sure there might still be better bargains to be had but I can only see any difference in the next 12 months as being marginal.

tara747

On the other hand, I see no risk at all in waiting. Prices are going to either stagnate or fall further over the next year, imho.

We'll see. It'll be interesting to observe, anyway.

maevey76

Def not looking to wade into the middle of a v detailed discussion on this but me and OH have been house hunting for a couple of months. We bought in 08, maybe not quite at the peak but close enough. Since then we have had a couple of kids and our original terrace was a bit cramped and lacked a garden. So we've been renting and looking around to buy again, while we rent our first house out. Now we have really only been looking in and around south east Belfast, Four Winds, Carryduff but we have seen a bit upswing in last 6 weeks. We were browsing online for about 6 months before we started actively looking and things were slow, lots of houses, few buyers, places sitting on the market for ages, prices being dropped. Houses are being listed online and going sale agreed within days. They are also all going for way over the asking price. We went to see one 2 weeks ago that has a huge big garden and is detached but needs a lot of work done - asking price £145k. It is just being sale agreed at £185k. That is an extreme example but by and large everything we have seen has gone for around 10% over asking price. We currently have an offer on a house at the asking price and the seller is holding off agreeing the sale to see if they get any higher offers.

Obviously this is just our experience and we are looking in a very particular area and in a very particular price bracket of about £140k-£180k, but this is what we have seen anyway... Maybe it's the news about the 95% mortgages?

A.L.D.A

I find Nestoria an interesting site. Lots of graphs by area and house size. Comparisons with UK etc. It seems it very much depends on where you live and house type.. So that is probably why there are such differences in perception.

The government is heading towards elections so until that day they will try to reflate the housing market. However for sustained increases in house prices you will need to see disposable incomes increase and a general feel good factor which is not there, but people tend to behave like a herd and mood is a hard one to guess and can change quickly.

The year ahead anyone's guess. Will we see alarming moves one way or the other, unlikely. If a house is £100,000 how much further will it drop? If you see a house you like and can afford it, and it is near to schools etc then does it make sense to wait a year and buy another a few thousand less (or perhaps more)? I am sure many are asking that question and if they can obtain the mortgage deposit will they act? ,For most of us life moves on and constantly going on property visits is of limited appeal.

The mean income is about £23,000 in NI . So 3.5 times that plus deposit of say 10% gets us around £90,000 for the average house. But it is not as simple as that, as it is the average income of the group that will be buying that will dictate the affordability of the average house. So will there be huge drops ahead given the governments policy commitments (inducements)? Will a new government want to remove them? If there is, perhaps there will be a correction if and when there are improvements in the overall economy. If you can guess this one and buy (or have bought) at the bottom you are either talented and/or lucky.

tara747

maevey76 wrote: »

Def not looking to wade into the middle of a v detailed discussion on this but me and OH have been house hunting for a couple of months. We bought in 08, maybe not quite at the peak but close enough. Since then we have had a couple of kids and our original terrace was a bit cramped and lacked a garden. So we've been renting and looking around to buy again, while we rent our first house out. Now we have really only been looking in and around south east Belfast, Four Winds, Carryduff but we have seen a bit upswing in last 6 weeks. We were browsing online for about 6 months before we started actively looking and things were slow, lots of houses, few buyers, places sitting on the market for ages, prices being dropped. Houses are being listed online and going sale agreed within days. They are also all going for way over the asking price. We went to see one 2 weeks ago that has a huge big garden and is detached but needs a lot of work done - asking price £145k. It is just being sale agreed at £185k. That is an extreme example but by and large everything we have seen has gone for around 10% over asking price. We currently have an offer on a house at the asking price and the seller is holding off agreeing the sale to see if they get any higher offers.

Obviously this is just our experience and we are looking in a very particular area and in a very particular price bracket of about £140k-£180k, but this is what we have seen anyway... Maybe it's the news about the 95% mortgages?

Have you got a link to the sale agreed house? Firstly, I hardly need to point out that 'sale agreed' does not mean 'sold'.

But assuming that it does sell. Even during the depth of the crash, houses were sold. The most desirable houses went for close to or over the asking price. And some EAs were smart enough to convince sellers to price low enough to attract lots of interest. Some weren't, of course. I'm willing to bet that this house that's been sale agreed wasn't being sold by Templeton Robinson. ;o How they're still in business, I don't know!

If there is an increase in activity at present, it probably is down to the Government's tinkering. Also, spring and autumn are always busier for the housing market. It remains to be seen what the winter and New Year brings.

A.L.D.A wrote: »

I find Nestoria an interesting site. Lots of graphs by area and house size. Comparisons with UK etc. It seems it very much depends on where you live and house type.. So that is probably why there are such differences in perception.

The government is heading towards elections so until that day they will try to reflate the housing market. However for sustained increases in house prices you will need to see disposable incomes increase and a general feel good factor which is not there, but people tend to behave like a herd and mood is a hard one to guess and can change quickly.

The year ahead anyone's guess. Will we see alarming moves one way or the other, unlikely. If a house is £100,000 how much further will it drop? If you see a house you like and can afford it, and it is near to schools etc then does it make sense to wait a year and buy another a few thousand less (or perhaps more)? I am sure many are asking that question and if they can obtain the mortgage deposit will they act? ,For most of us life moves on and constantly going on property visits is of limited appeal.

The mean income is about £23,000 in NI . So 3.5 times that plus deposit of say 10% gets us around £90,000 for the average house. But it is not as simple as that, as it is the average income of the group that will be buying that will dictate the affordability of the average house. So will there be huge drops ahead given the governments policy commitments (inducements)? Will a new government want to remove them? If there is, perhaps there will be a correction if and when there are improvements in the overall economy. If you can guess this one and buy (or have bought) at the bottom you are either talented and/or lucky.

Fair points. There are always people who want or 'have' to buy, regardless of market conditions - otherwise no houses would have sold in NI in the last 6 years! But economic sentiment is so bad that I can't see any house price rises for at least 3-4 years. And when IRs rise, as they must, that will deal another blow to confidence. Perhaps at a time when it's in a fragile recovery.

I'd rather wait until IRs have started to rise, and know what my future repayments are likely to be, than gamble on a 2- or 5-year mortgage deal with base rates at 0.5%.

saverbuyer

The median income in N.I. is actually less than £19,000.

tara747

saverbuyer wrote: »

The mean income in N.I. is actually less than £19,000.

I meant to pick up on this. I don't know the actual figures, but I'd be amazed if the mean (average) NI income were higher than £19K. We have a very low-paid workforce on the whole, especially in the private sector.

saverbuyer

tara747 wrote: »

I meant to pick up on this. I don't know the actual figures, but I'd be amazed if the mean (average) NI income were higher than £19K. We have a very low-paid workforce on the whole, especially in the private sector.

£18,720k is the median (not mean) for ALL workers.

The £23K figure is the gross for full-time workers.

I was reading average wage inflation was 0.7% in the last 3 months and inflation (CPI) over 3%. Pay cuts all round.

tara747

saverbuyer wrote: »

£18,720k is the median (not mean) for ALL workers.

The £23K figure is the gross for full-time workers.

I was reasing average wage inflation in 0.7% and inflation over 3%. Pay cuts all round.

A.L.D.A quoted a mean figure of £23K. Are you saying that £23K is the median gross salary for FT workers? Honestly, I find that hard to believe. :eek: But I'm always willing to be corrected!