Any other home buyers in NI?

saverbuyer

GlynD wrote: »

I'll be sure to recommend you for a BEM then for services to first time buyers. Now do me a favour - pack it in.

And I've recommended you to National Association of Estate Agents for a non-executive directorship. Congratulations.

tara747

GlynD wrote: »

The socio-economic conditions which are helping the English market are eventually filtering through to here. Increased lending after the famine following the crash is one factor boosted by government demands for mortages to be made available.

Above all I believe from what I see and read that demand is increasing - which inevitably it's bound to do. People here are just as canny as those elsewhere however and they're not going to pay 2005 prices for what's on the market now so there has been a slow realisation from vendors that offers from buyers will be on the low side.

In particular I note that several ghost estates which I see on my travels have come alive again.

I'm not naive enough to believe there will be full recovery within the next five years but I believe the market is panning out and there will be some increase in equity within five years. Unfortunately for those who bought at the peak of the market I doubt they'll see their equity rising to that peak again within 10 years.

I do see this as an ideal time to buy for any buyer as the loan versus salary ratio is such that, even with a small drop over the next couple of years, it enables people to get on the market when it's still depressed. If they buy at the right price.

What about my friends who paid £190K+ for a house which is now worth £50K? That house will never go back to its purchase price within the lifetime of their (30-year) mortgage, imho. Not without some serious wage inflation.

And that's just one example. There are plenty of others in NE, I know quite a few. They can't move, they're stuck with houses that some of them are desperate to move from, either because they want more space or they hate the area (as we all know, lots of people bought in crap areas because that was all they could afford during the boom). They can't sell, they can't cover the shortfall.

The couple quoted above have just had a baby and want to trade up from their small 2-bed terrace - no chance. And they can't rent out their house as the rent wouldn't even cover the mortgage. They're well and truly stuffed.

GlynD

tara747 wrote: »

What about my friends who paid £190K+ for a house which is now worth £50K? That house will never go back to its purchase price within the lifetime of their (30-year) mortgage, imho. Not without some serious wage inflation.

And that's just one example. There are plenty of others in NE, I know quite a few. They can't move, they're stuck with houses that some of them are desperate to move from, either because they want more space or they hate the area (as we all know, lots of people bought in crap areas because that was all they could afford during the boom). They can't sell, they can't cover the shortfall.

The couple quoted above have just had a baby and want to trade up from their small 2-bed terrace - no chance. And they can't rent out their house as the rent wouldn't even cover the mortgage. They're well and truly stuffed.

I accept what you say but would temper it with: nobody knows what's going to happen in the next 5-10 years. I do sympathise with anyone who's caught in such a disastrous situation. The current marketplace is so low however that it's unlikely anyone buying now will find themselves with such a radical price drop. Notwithstanding there may still be some downward movement. Wouldn't you agree?

Mistral001

Maybe GlynD is right that the market has bottomed out, but I remember estate agents being interviewed around this time of the year four years ago saying that they thought the house market had bottomed out. If I rememeber just about the only commentator who was saying that they had not was Jamie Delargy of UTV and he was called a prophet of doom if I remember for saying so.

In recent years estate agents and property experts are a bit reluctant to talk about house prices bottoming out not surprisingly. I suppose when you get it wrong 2 or 3 years in a row, you do not want to make a fool of yourself again.

I wonder if Jamie has made any comment on it recently. If he said the prices had bottomed out, that would be good enough for me.

GlynD

Mistral001 wrote: »

Maybe Glynn is right that the market has bottomed out, but I remember estate agents being interviewed around this time of the year four years ago saying that they thought the house market had bottomed out. If I rememeber just about the only commentator who was saying that they had not was Jamie Delargy of UTV and he was called a prophet of doom if I remember for saying so.

In recent years estate agents and commentators are a bit reluctant to talk about house prices bottoming out not surprisingly. I suppose when you get it wrong 2 or 3 years in a row, you do not want to make a fool of yourself again, apart from Jamie that is.

I wonder if Jamie has made any comment on it recently. If he said the prices had bottomed out, that would be good enough for me.

I think it's dangerous to make an emphatic statement that it has bottomed out because as Tara said there could still be some downward movement in prices. Some areas will come up faster than others too and that's a fact you could put your pension on. My point all along however is that if it hasn't bottomed out, it's close to it which makes it a good time to buy. Particularly for young couples who could never have afforded decent housing during the boom years.

I still wouldn't see it as a good time for investment purchases though - unless you're prepared to wait a long time for a return on your dosh.

tommie

GlynD wrote: »

The socio-economic conditions which are helping the English market .... Blah.... Blah........ Blah.....etc,..

@ GlynD - i`ve asked you this before, are you an out of work Estate Agent, Developer or what??

Because no-one with an ounce of intelligence would be `bigging-up` the present housing market here the way you have.

What is your vested interest in so doing??

Are you trying to sell ??

If you do, or have to, you wont be making a kill like you did in England thats for sure!

Maybe you`ve just realised you missed out on the N. Ireland gravy train?

tara747

At the end of the day, we are all speculating.

I still think that prices could fall another 20%, I really do. OH and I are staying clear for now, that's for sure. We'll buy when we think that there's value to be had in the area we like.

There is no danger whatsoever in waiting another year to see what happens, imho.

Mistral001

There must be something in our DNA which says that if we buy in a falling market we are admitting that we are in some way mentally !!!!!!.

I suppose most people want to boast about how great their new house is. But even if the house is in a very desireable area and has everything that anybody wants, if it is falling in price that trumps everything in the desireabilty stakes. It is going to be a lemon in many people's eyes.

First time buyer are more affected by this human condition than others I should have thought. The prospective first time buyer will presently be living in rented accommodation or with parents which means that any house they buy that is falling in value is a massive issue. For someone who is selling a house to move into a new house it is not such a big issue as it is just moving from one house falling in value to another one.

So if first time buyers can just overcome the social embarassment of living in a house sufficiently long enough for it to start to increase in value again, then maybe first time buyers will start to buy houses again in large numbers.

GlynD

tommie wrote: »

@ GlynD - i`ve asked you this before, are you an out of work Estate Agent, Developer or what??

Because no-one with an ounce of intelligence would be `bigging-up` the present housing market here the way you have.

What is your vested interest in so doing??

Are you trying to sell ??

If you do, or have to, you wont be making a kill like you did in England thats for sure!

Maybe you`ve just realised you missed out on the N. Ireland gravy train?

What planet are you on pal? Maybe you've not realised that this is a discussion forum and you are not entitled to know anything about me unless I choose to divulge it. If you want to cry to somebody go to your mammy but don't spout rubbish on here.

GlynD

tara747 wrote: »

At the end of the day, we are all speculating.

I still think that prices could fall another 20%, I really do. OH and I are staying clear for now, that's for sure. We'll buy when we think that there's value to be had in the area we like.

There is no danger whatsoever in waiting another year to see what happens, imho.

I personally can't see it going as low as another 20% but that is pure speculation and if you're happy to wait another year to see what happens I would say you can't lose as I agree the picture will be clearer by then.