Withdrawal from Europe - Market Fears?

george278

Given the current rise in public opinion in favour of the UK withdrawing from the EEC, and the possibility of a referendum on our membership, should investors with holdings in the UK market be worried?

The UK is the largest market in my portfolio and I'm considering reducing this.

sabretoothtigger

Unless they chuck us out its just talk. We can still trade with EU anyway, other countries in the world do. I think it'd effect farming most

Linton

I think the effect would be more serious than that as a lot of inward investment, for example Japanese car manufacturers, has been on the basis of the UK being in the EC.

However any referendum is some years away, and I suspect that any major collapse in share prices would cause sufficient fear to ensure that the vote would be to remain in. Perhaps it could be of concern at some stage for anyone with a very large % in the UK, but I dont see it as a major issue for people with well diversified investments.

srcandas

Markets love uncertainty so for sure while the actual outcome is unknown the markets will bounce around like yoyos. But why you might think the UK would be impacted worse than Germany, France, etc. I cannot see.

I'd have thought the bigger and far more likely concern would be the collapse of the Euro.

Catalunya are going to the polls this weekend and many will read the result as a vote for independance. If they go would spain default? And would Catalunya just walk into the EU when their independance could be seen as a default?

The suicide rate in Greece and Spain is increasing as hunger steps in and hope dissappears. Will civil unrest get stepped up to a level where it disrupts industry? And is it not he Germans who would miss out the most?

Personally I'd rather we were out if the EU doesn't revert to just being a trade convenience

grey_gym_sock

of the leaderships of the 3 main political parties, none want to leave the EU, and none want a referendum about it. so it's hard to see how either could happen.

in any case, most ppl want to stay in. it's 1 thing to be massively cynical about how the EU is run, and another to want to leave. the same could be said for attitudes in scotland to the british government.

Sceptic001

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

in any case, most ppl want to stay in.

That used to be true, but is no longer the case. Latest poll confirms a steady increase in public opposition to EU membership:
56% of Britons would vote to quit EU in referendum, poll finds

But as srcandas says, the state of the euro is more likely to cause market instability than potential UK departure from the EU.

grey_gym_sock

polls are all very well, but i don't believe ppl would actually vote to leave if a referendum were actually held. the 56% includes ppl saying they'd "probably" vote to leave. ppl may say that because they think the EU is being run poorly and needs a slap over the wrist, so they'd need to be persuaded to vote in favour of it. but some of them would be persuaded.

the bigger problems are to do with the eurozone trying to run a single currency without a fiscal union. the UK can't avoid suffering the indirect consequences of this. which makes debating whether to leave the EU a bit of a sideshow.

brasso

grey_gym_sock wrote: »

polls are all very well, but i don't believe ppl would actually vote to leave if a referendum were actually held. the 56% includes ppl saying they'd "probably" vote to leave. ppl may say that because they think the EU is being run poorly and needs a slap over the wrist, so they'd need to be persuaded to vote in favour of it. but some of them would be persuaded.

Agree.

I's easy to say what we want in a survey but when it comes down to it, I really don't think a majority would vote to actually leave the EC.

I suspect what most euro-grumpies like me really want is less federalism and less crass bureaucracy, but we want to retain the benefits of trade and the convenience of easy border crossings and the ability to work in Europe etc.

If someone could come up with a form of membership that promised this, and if the EC at large could all be happy with this so-called 2-speed Europe, most of us would be happy.

So to the OP, I would say: Don't worry about it. We are not leaving the EC. More worrying for your portfolio might be: Greece defaulting, Spain heading for bankruptcy, the collapse of the Euro, rising inflation and war in the Middle East.

Bob_the_Saver

Sceptic001 wrote: »

56% of Britons would vote to quit EU in referendum, poll finds

I didn't realise that many idiots read the Daily Mail

globalds

We voted for a common market.
Perhaps we should just stick to a common market.

Glen_Clark

The EU is just the excuse - the UK's financial disaster has little to do with the EU.
We are not even in the EU properly because we don't have the currency - more like we are half in and half out.
Did the EU force Gormless Brown to sell our gold at the bottom of the market?
Did the EU force us to increase our overseas aid?
Did the EU force us to take in third world (Non EU) migrants?
Did the EU force the NHS to become a visitor attraction to the third world?
Did the EU force Gormless Brown to create huge debts with useless PFIs?
Did the EU force us to increase the public sector beyond our ability to fund it?
Did the EU force us to go to war in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya (and possibly Syria)?
Did the EU force Tony Blair to waste £11bn on the unusable NHS computer system?
I could go on and on, but I hope you get the idea. The EU is just a smokescreen, and we'd still be in the financial brown stuff whether we were in it or not.