Interesting uk house price discussion

mrginge

http://youtu.be/jjVjfV1JVDo

Haven't seen this discussed anywhere on here.

Excellent assessment if you're a bear, alternatively a total load of rubbish if you're of the opposite persuasion.

It's interesting to hear the myth of housing shortages being dispelled and a decent analysis of the problems caused by over reliance on London and the SE.

You could of course argue that HL would be rather foolish to tell people to stick their money into housing rather than investing it with them...

Jegersmart

Housing prices are largely driven by credit expansion and has been for decades. If you believe that credit expansion will continue in the future then one should be feeling good about future prices. As to demand and supply, resident growth in the UK ran at 0.7% last year from figures I have seen and since the 1960's has probably averaged at something like 0.4% per year. This would seem to be an insignificant factor no? Obviously foreign money buying properties in London are going to provide some support to prices for a while in that area but one could perhaps argue that the phenomenon is similar to asset allocation - i.e. as yields drop in other markets and the situation is dire then one would buy property in London in an attempt to protect capital.

I don't have any exposure to UK house prices so am neutral in this regard.

J

IveSeenTheLight

AliMcloud wrote: »

Also his reasons why property makes a very bad investment like for a pension are very valid point.

Not watched the video.
As a property investor however, I've found my investments to be well rewarded.
I have had 16 days void over three properties over the last 5 years.

I maintain my properties to a high standard, thus this is factored in, but is relatively small in terms of the profits and is covered by the 10% wear and tear allowance on my tax returns

chucknorris

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Not watched the video.
As a property investor however, I've found my investments to be well rewarded.
I have had 16 days void over three properties over the last 5 years.

I maintain my properties to a high standard, thus this is factored in, but is relatively small in terms of the profits and is covered by the 10% wear and tear allowance on my tax returns

Sorry to hear about your 16 day void (over 5 years), did you cry all the way to the bank?

My wife and I were just saying the other day that the 10% wear and tear allowance is terrfic value.

IveSeenTheLight

chucknorris wrote: »

Sorry to hear about your 16 day void (over 5 years), did you cry all the way to the bank?

My wife and I were just saying the other day that the 10% wear and tear allowance is terrfic value.

Yes, it was an absolute nightmare.
One tenancy finished mid month and the next didn't start till the beginning of the next.

Even now I have a property that I get the tenants to cover the rent whilst I do up the property before they move in.

It's because they are keen to secure the property and think it's fantastic I spruce up on their behalf before they start the next term.

I've not had to advertise for 4 years as the tenants of this property in particular is leased to students and they have people they know wanting to take over the tenancy when it becomes available.

There is a slight downside to having a desireable well maintained property let to students though. I make myself more available to support them (even once helped them change some lightbulbs)

Not really an issue though as it takes 1/2 hour to an hour every other month and lets me see they are looking after the property ;o)

chucknorris

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Yes, it was an absolute nightmare.
One tenancy finished mid month and the next didn't start till the beginning of the next.

Even now I have a property that I get the tenants to cover the rent whilst I do up the property before they move in.

It's because they are keen to secure the property and think it's fantastic I spruce up on their behalf before they start the next term.

I've not had to advertise for 4 years as the tenants of this property in particular is leased to students and they have people they know wanting to take over the tenancy when it becomes available.

There is a slight downside to having a desireable well maintained property let to students though. I make myself more available to support them (even once helped them change some lightbulbs)

Not really an issue though as it takes 1/2 hour to an hour every other month and lets me see they are looking after the property ;o)

I've only ever had self inflicted voids to refurbish properties between tenancies, that's for 4-5 properties for over 21 years.

EDIT: Nearly forgot I also had a months void when I was selling a house waiting for the completion date.

IveSeenTheLight

AliMcloud wrote: »

Do all the prop bulls only ever consider one side of the debate?

Not at all.

I listen and consider the "prop bears" points and some have very valid points, hence why property prices have corrected and are currently stagnating.

Because I'm bearish on prices long term (until the put in the fundamentals to change that) and I have positive experience on my rental portfolio even thorough this economic crisis (actually this may have strengthened the rental market and the profits for investors), it does not mean I am not considerate of the factors.

Because one weighs up all the factors and comes to a decision on the likelyhood of property in the future, it does not mean they have closed their eyes to the negative impact.

That (in my opinion) is a trait that seems to be more prominant in the "prop bears"

As you can see below, despite the economic factors of the last 5 years, where is the bearish results (long terms) from the below stats taken from the ROSEA?

AliMcloud wrote: »

As has been said there are a handful of reasons why house prices may go up from here, and more and more of the perma prop bull prop rampers keep on shouting about them over and over.

Is this a trait on only one side of the debate?
Despite reiterating the points, the opposite side seem to lurch from one straw to the next hoping tom make their predictions come true.

AliMcloud wrote: »

There are also a handful of reasons why property will not go up much for quite a while, or even fall more from here these are brought out very well in this video.

I will when I have more time review the video and see if there is any light shed on the likelyhood of property prices falling in the future that outweigh the likelyhood they will rise.

AliMcloud wrote: »

P.S. A quick message to all the perma prop bulls property rampers, do you ever consider when you keep spurting how well your investments in property are doing

Experience is valuable and often better context than theory.

I've been told a number of times how stupid I have been to have invested in property, the potential pitfalls, voids, maintenance, bad tenants, price falls, interest rate rises, mardin calls, etc etc etc etc whereas in reality this has certainly not so far been anywhere near what has happened.

Indeed, as I alluded to earlier, the rental market in my experience is stronger place to be because of the economy and restrictions in place.

I don't see what is wrong with using experience to counter theory, similarly I accept there are investors (Wilsons & Turner / Bovey) who have shown to over extend themselves.

AliMcloud wrote: »

how disliked you are?

I really don't care in a forum whether I am liked or not.
I simply prefer to discuss facts and usually question when stated facts are dubious and indeed found to be inaccurate.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

.

Heh heh.....:beer:

System

"Perma prop bulls prop rampers" :laugh:

What a wrong'un