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Inflation will rise faster than expected
Comments
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What do you think they should have done increase interest rate because student loans increased.
Not increased student fees by 270%. A bookkeeping exercise to get it off the Governements balance sheet and make it a mere contingent liability. A very real and hard liability IMO as time will tell.
I also prdicted the blindingly obvious that most if not all Unis would go straight to the limit, didn't just catch Merv out either even Willets didn't see it apparently.
Why have tuition fees started to factor into CPI and why at only such a small amount? I appreciate statiscians are obliged to factor in some effect but why in this manner? Apparently it won't feature next period so allit doesn't really matter!"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
...and Mr Keynes gave them a "scientific" rationale for doing what they have always wanted to do-control and manipulate
I am not sure that Mr Keynes ideas were ever given a double blind trial.
Mr Hitler produced the most amazing "make work" scheme, where the whole nation was "all in it together" in the UK and where industrialists in USA were able to make serious profits.
Post war UK, with overhanging debts (and political delusions of grandeur), staggered from boom to bust until rescued by North Sea Oil.
Unfortunately in the modern global economy printed money is more valuable to a developing nation and has trouble being invested profitably in an inflationary home market. It tends to end up chasing up commodity prices at home and supporting a surge of importsd from abroad
The Chinese "waxworks" are desperate to keep their ecomomy booming and absorbing the unemployables in their countryside, who are still clamouring for access to the mega cities.
In fairness to Keynes he never got his ideas of preventing economic hegemony by economies in chronic surplus. "Our" traditional sources of raw materials are being seduced away.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »The school fee's was a known inflationary item. Yet it seems they didn't allow for it in their forward looking inflation report.
Did you check?
BoE Inflation report - AugustThe near-term outlook for inflation will also be affected by the planned increase in university undergraduate tuition fees, which is likely to add around 0.2 percentage points to inflation from October. And, as the rise in fees will only apply to new undergraduates, a positive contribution to inflation will persist over the next three years as the proportion of undergraduates paying the higher level of fees increases each year.0 -
Did you check?
BoE Inflation report - August
That's august. i.e. VERY recent. Look back a little further. As said, this has been going on for years.
All I, and it seems others (if I have got it right) are saying, is "why, if we could see what was happening, couldn't the BOE"?
We don't expect them to get it right all the time, nor do we expect them to get it exactly right. Theres leeway. But 4 years of being wrong is starting to wear thin.
They will do the same next year when growth isn't 1%...it will be "growth will be 1% in 2014".
I mean, why are the BOE surprised when energy companies hike prices!? Can it really be that much of a surprise....when its something so blindingly obvious to the rest of us that every winter they hike prices!?
I'd rather they simply said they didn't know in all honesty. At least it's honest, and at least the government can't keep overpsending year after year by setting budgets based on overly optimistic calculations. Again, the budget for benefits will be knocked off course by these figures. I'd rather it be knocked off course for the better (costing less) than it always costing more than planned for....and this is what these budgets, predictions and forecasts are used for. Is it really too much to expect them to be a little closer to reality....other groups appear to get it a little closer, and the BOE's, as stated in an article the other day, have been consistently more wrong than any other groups forecasts.
It appears to me, we've simply hit a situation whereby so long as 0.5% interest rates are still around, and stimulus is still on the radar people couldn't care less about the actual background.
If it's asking a little too much that the BOE get's forecasts and predictions at least in the right direction....and at least in line with other groups....then tell me. It will save all the faff of asking "what would you do" etc. I don't think I'm asking for too much personally.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »All I, and it seems others (if I have got it right) are saying, is "why, if we could see what was happening, couldn't the BOE"?
Why do harp on about forecasts being wrong?
Who on this board can predict energy prices, commodity prices, shipping rates etc. Given that many are directly influenced by global demand and the varagarities of the weather.
I've spent many an hour producing rolling 3 month cash flow forecasts. Very rarely am I right. As too many factors are beyond my sphere of influence.
However what forecasts do allow is for action to be taken that does influence the future or protects against possible events and outcomes occuring.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »Why do harp on about forecasts being wrong?
Who on this board can predict energy prices, commodity prices, shipping rates etc. Given that many are directly influenced by global demand and the varagarities of the weather.
I've spent many an hour producing rolling 3 month cash flow forecasts. Very rarely am I right. As too many factors are beyond my sphere of influence.
However what forecasts do allow is for action to be taken that does influence the future or protects against possible events and outcomes occuring.
I guess you know they will be wrong and are used and managed on that assumption.
The government/BOE seem to be consistently "surprised" when there optimism is squashed.
They are either incredibly naive and stupid or they simply aren't being honest.
Perhaps the "or" should be "and" in that last sentence."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »If it's asking a little too much that the BOE get's forecasts and predictions at least in the right direction....and at least in line with other groups....then tell me. It will save all the faff of asking "what would you do" etc. I don't think I'm asking for too much personally.
I hate to point this out but JulieQ always said you suffered from a severe case of confirmation bias. Inflation has been falling, as most people expected, for months; first MoM rise for a while and you were right all along.
I bet you've never read a BoE inflation report - try it - there's more to informed opinion than thisismoney. They're available as pdf's - search for "energy" - you might be interested in what they do consider.0 -
Thrugelmir wrote: »Why do harp on about forecasts being wrong?
Who on this board can predict energy prices, commodity prices, shipping rates etc. Given that many are directly influenced by global demand and the varagarities of the weather.
I've spent many an hour producing rolling 3 month cash flow forecasts. Very rarely am I right. As too many factors are beyond my sphere of influence.
However what forecasts do allow is for action to be taken that does influence the future or protects against possible events and outcomes occuring.
It's an easy stick to reach for: someone sticks their neck out when they make a prediction. The timid person doesn't make a prediction but can use the incorrect prediction of another to belittle them.
The fact is that the BoE has done an amazing job in near impossible circumstances. Look at the data from previous balance sheet recessions and look at how other countries are faring to see how this could have gone.0 -
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"It's an easy stick to reach for: someone sticks their neck out when they make a prediction. The timid person doesn't make a prediction but can use the incorrect prediction of another to belittle them. "
Or maybe, It's an easier stick to grab making predictions others read and act upon without the willingness of the backers willingness to back up their forecasts.
When there judgement is proven wrong and questioned....they say they were brave and bold but not willing to risk their capital?0
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