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Inflation will rise faster than expected

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Comments

  • wotsthat
    wotsthat Posts: 11,325 Forumite
    That's the point. We've pretty much (looking at the data only going forward) come to the end of that downward trend.

    This isn't looking at one months data, it's looking at all the data and projecting. CPI is a backward looking indicator, so it's easy to look at that data and compare to what's happening now.

    We might have come to the end of that trend but won't know until we look back. There might be some surveys and forecasts to look at but there's no such thing as looking at future data.

    To be honest I don't think we'll need to look at graphs to know inflation's back - it'll be sudden and sharp.

    I'm just not convinced that now is the start of an upswing. Despite QE the effects on money supply have been limited and most recent data is showing an economy bumping along at zero growth. The banks are clinging onto cash for grim death and I can't see that changing anytime soon. Hardly an inflationary setting.
  • lemonjelly
    lemonjelly Posts: 8,014 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker Mortgage-free Glee!
    Anyone with index linked savings will be quietly pleased with themselves at this...
    It's getting harder & harder to keep the government in the manner to which they have become accustomed.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    It's "sticky" largely because virtually unregulated cartels in key sectors like energy and fuel and allowed to price increase virtually as they like.

    Interestingly enough. Now that fracking is the rage in the USA. Price of coal has as excess production is being exported. This should help keep a lid on further increases in energy prices for a while.
  • Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Interestingly enough. Now that fracking is the rage in the USA. Price of coal has as excess production is being exported. This should help keep a lid on further increases in energy prices for a while.

    I doubt it the Middle East will just throttle supply and the cost of extraction of all that fracking will ensure the end result will be expensive to purchase.
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • pqrdef
    pqrdef Posts: 4,552 Forumite
    Those who remember previous pay freezes will know that the dam bursts eventually. Wage-price spiral, here we come.

    A lot of people out there aren't reconciled to permanently reduced circumstances. They're just hanging on waiting for the tide to turn. Then they expect to catch up to where they expected to be.
    "It will take, five, 10, 15 years to get back to where we need to be. But it's no longer the individual banks that are in the wrong, it's the banking industry as a whole." - Steven Cooper, head of personal and business banking at Barclays, talking to Martin Lewis
  • Thrugelmir wrote: »
    Interestingly enough. Now that fracking is the rage in the USA. Price of coal has as excess production is being exported. This should help keep a lid on further increases in energy prices for a while.

    But we are not allowed to burn the stuff - it creates too much CO2.

    See today's fuss about converting half our coal fired power stations to burn more wood than the UK is capable of growing.
  • thor
    thor Posts: 5,506 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts
    edited 13 November 2012 at 2:41AM
    ILW wrote: »
    Probably a bit of a shock to Merv, though he seems to be surprised by everything that happens.

    Is that why he is so highly remunerated? I mean exactly what does his working day consist of? As far as I know his only remit is to keep inflation below 2% and he has screwed up in that respect for donkeys years now. If he is unable to manage that due to his incompetence or the limitations of his role then what the hell are we the taxpayers giving all that money for? He is just another scrounger living off the the rest of us in my opinion. I could fail just as well as he has for a fraction of his salary if anyone in the government is listening.
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    thor wrote: »
    Is that why he is so highly remunerated? I mean exactly what does his working day consist of? As far as I know his only remit is to keep inflation below 2% and he has screwed up in that respect for donkeys years now. If he is unable to manage that due to his incompetence or the limitations of his role then what the hell are we the taxpayers giving all that money for? He is just another scrounger living off the the rest of us in my opinion. I could fail just as well as he has for a fraction of his salary if anyone in the government is listening.

    Mervyn King's remit isn't to keep inflation below 2%.

    There is a CPI target of 2% and if inflation moves more than 1 percentage point either side of the target Mr King writes to the Chanceller to explain why.

    In addition, in his role as Chairman of the MPC, Mr King is responsible for carrying out the aims of Government policy insofar as he can.
  • Generali wrote: »
    Mervyn King's remit is [STRIKE]
    isn't to keep inflation below 2%.

    [/STRIKE][STRIKE]There is a CPI target of 2% and if inflation moves more than 1 percentage point either side of the target Mr King [/STRIKE] to writeto the Chanceller. [STRIKE]
    to explain why.

    [/STRIKE]In addition, in his role as Chairman of the MPC, Mr King is responsible for carrying out the aims of Government policy insofar as he can.

    Merv is a part of the governemnent smoke and mirrors machinery.

    Divide, confuse, ofcubscate.
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • ILW
    ILW Posts: 18,333 Forumite
    thor wrote: »
    Is that why he is so highly remunerated? I mean exactly what does his working day consist of? As far as I know his only remit is to keep inflation below 2% and he has screwed up in that respect for donkeys years now. If he is unable to manage that due to his incompetence or the limitations of his role then what the hell are we the taxpayers giving all that money for? He is just another scrounger living off the the rest of us in my opinion. I could fail just as well as he has for a fraction of his salary if anyone in the government is listening.

    Different world, there are millions of people who could get things as wrong as he has, but would not get paid £3 or £400,000 for doing it.
    BBC is similar.
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