Rightmove down -4.5% in three months

homelessskilledworker

wotsthat wrote: »

Sure does - the same trend that Rightmove follows every summer.

2012 - Rightmove down 4.5% over summer

2011 - Rightmove down 3.0% over summer

2010 - Rightmove down 3.4% over summer

2009 - Rightmove down 1.6% over summer

2008 - Rightmove down 3.3% over summer

I'm struggling to get excited about this data myself. Oh, hang on, this summer's falls are MASSIVE compared to last summer - TIMBER!!!!

I wonder if anything in particular happened this summer that might help to explain this?:)

Mmmm, very interesting, you have finally commited yourself without having to make a handful of snide remarks in the process.
You could well be right, we should see in the next few months whether you theory proves correct.
Next few months should show decent rises then??

DervProf

wotsthat wrote: »

I think that might be what you pray for at bedtime rather than something that can be reasonably deduced from asking prices predictably falling every summer.

Actually, I don't pray for anything at bedtime, and if I did, falling asking prices for property would not be the subject.

FYI, I will lose out financially from lower house prices, but my sense of what is good for the country is greater than my VI.

homelessskilledworker

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Oh, I do.

But only to refute the previous few months of pointless bear winter celebrations.

It's become sort of a seasonal ritual now.

Graham's gang will cheer and clap at the normal winter dip, then try to talk down the spring bounce.

Hamish's henchmen will cheer and clap at the normal spring bounce, and try to talk down the winter dip.

It's what people with no life do on the internet.

Apparently.

What complete and utter twaddle you post;)

Lets start with the snide remark about "people with no life on the internet do", the only thing I say to that is look at Hamish's posting record on here on his profile.

As for "Granham's gang", I very rarely thank any of Grahams posts(or any other bear) as do most other bears on here, yet I agree with his bear sentiment in general. Unlike the handful of 24/7 bull posters on here I prefer not to thank posts just for the sake of it and just because they are bull or bear, unlike the five main bull posters on here.

What amazes me about the 24/7 bull posters on this board(and a few others), is their overwhelming anger and hate for anyone posting a bearish statement, SO WHAT!!.

If someone has a thought of what he thinks is going to happen in this world whether it be social, planetary or in this case housing, what could posses anyone to become so outraged, more so if they are 100% certain they are right like many seem to think on here.

I know and drink with people that have dozens of opposing views on a daily basis, from who will win a football match to who is going to catch the first fish to who is the best golfer, BUT NEVER have any of us found the need to start personally insulting and even(like some on here) search out personal information unrelated to the topic to discredit them:).

I would like nothing better to come to this board and discuss the future trend of property with out all the insults. But I now know that is impossible, no matter how much you reason with a certain group of people. But what I find fascinating is why in so many cases are so many people going to so much trouble to ridicule and put down a bear argument in anyway they possibly can, that is a subject in itself(and for reasons I cannot be bothered to discuss on here)and given me more certainty in what I think could well happen in the property market in the next few years.

There are a dozen reasons why many want/think/hope a property price crash could take place, they could be right or wrong. But what is not wrong is the right they have in expressing that opinion, because there is no right or wrong in expressing that opinion morally.
It is a free market out there(should be) where everyone and anyone can make a judgement call, and if they get it right good luck to them.

I am personally taking the risk(have for the last two years now) that prices will fall substantially enough to get a house that I want. As much as I know that will have many fuming on here for dozens of reasons I am only doing what ALL of us do on a daily basis, I decide if a product is value and worth parting with my money, we all do it from baked beans to a car, you either pay the price or you pay the price with a grudge or you just don't purchase.

There are also dozens of types of property bears out there, something that these daily 24/7 MSE bulls don't take into account. For example you might get the selfish(but patient) type like me who is holding out for better, you also might get hard working couples who have justifiable gripes about the property, again that is something I won't discuss on here, we all know the mantra "the yoof don't want to work for it", when it is a far more complex problem than that.

I am more on the side of a property crash/moderate fall in the next two years(by no means 100%), but I am quitely confident for a number of reasons. In the mean time I would like nothing better to discuss the subject in a grown up intelligent way, but the last couple of years have told me that it is a subject that is not debateable on an internet forum without the nastiness.

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Mmmm, very interesting, you have finally commited yourself without having to make a handful of snide remarks in the process.
You could well be right, we should see in the next few months whether you theory proves correct.
Next few months should show decent rises then??

I am right. Rightmove asking prices fall every summer (well the last 5 summers anyway). You need to be very careful interpreting this summers falls as indicative of a trend as clearly they are not.

I doubt there will be decent rises over the next few months either. More of the same probably - gently falling real prices for a while which is probably the best compromise between different parts of the economy.

However, the economy will improve at some point and lending will increase which will put upwards pressure on prices especially as, according to government figures, housing supply hasn't kept up with demand for years. Whether that's next year or in ten years who knows?

If I wanted to buy, had the deposit, access to finance, found a nice place etc. I'd just go ahead and buy as I've done in the past. In my case these have turned out, for a variety of reasons and not just financial, to have been 'good times to buy' but I recognise that this was pure luck.

Like I've said before, if you can see a downwards trend/ start of a crash, and think you can time your purchase to take advantage then good luck.

I think you're wrong that's all and doubt you've fully considered the costs of, say, renting for another two years and the stress of continually looking for data supportive of a crash.

wotsthat

DervProf wrote: »

Actually, I don't pray for anything at bedtime, and if I did, falling asking prices for property would not be the subject.

FYI, I will lose out financially from lower house prices, but my sense of what is good for the country is greater than my VI.

Your place in heaven seems assured (you might want to mention world peace every now and again to get the beatification process off to a good start).

What I don't understand is why you wish (and that's what it is) for lower house prices when that would be damaging for existing householders, banks, consumer confidence etc. Just seems quite negative - why not wish for an improvement in the economy and increased wages which would make houses relatively cheaper instead?

chewmylegoff

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Mmmm, very interesting, you have finally commited yourself without having to make a handful of snide remarks in the process.
You could well be right, we should see in the next few months whether you theory proves correct.
Next few months should show decent rises then??

no, according to the historic rightmove trend (see the graph on the first page of the link you posted, and the 2011/12 graph later in the link) there is typically a brief spike at this time of year which precedes further falls. as you can see from the 2011/12 graph (which is prepared on a weekly rather than monthly data), the price actually ticked up in the last week of the latest reporting period (mid-august to mid-september), suggesting that the next month's report will probably show an increase, followed by falls again in the following two months.

of course, it may do something completely different, the above just assumes it will follow what it has done in the last few years.

DervProf

wotsthat wrote: »

Your place in heaven seems assured (you might want to mention world peace every now and again to get the beatification process off to a good start).

What I don't understand is why you wish (and that's what it is) for lower house prices when that would be damaging for existing householders, banks, consumer confidence etc. Just seems quite negative - why not wish for an improvement in the economy and increased wages which would make houses relatively cheaper instead?

I doubt there's a place called heaven, so I doubt very much I'd have a place there, even if it exists.

I'll explain to you why I would like to see lower house prices.

The need, or justification for higher house prices seems to be that it's a good thing because it makes everyone wealthier (which it obviously doesn't, unless everyone has a house and the reason for higher house prices is purely down to a stronger economy). Higher house prices, under current circumstances, simply widens the gap between the "haves" and the "have nots". The fact that you can justify not wanting lower houses due to damage to banks, owners etc tells me that we have become too reliant on ever increasing house prices. By wishing for higher prices, you are simply increasing the damage that would occur if prices were to fall in the future. The bull philosophy seems to be that higher house prices = good, and that anyone wanting or predicting lower prices is just wishing for everyone to be poorer. Bulls are generally already homeowners, and I suppose natural greed can lead them to want and justify higher prices. They'll tell any aspiring property purchaser that although the price may be high, it'll be higher in the future, and that's a good thing. Isn't this known as a Ponzi scheme, or something ?

Now, we can debate if prices are currently too high, too low, or just right, but I get the feeling that some bulls will never agree that prices are too high (I didn't see or hear many saying that back in 2006). I think bears are more realistic, and although many will want lower prices for selfish reasons, most will not wish for ever increasing prices if they do eventually manage to buy a place of their own.

wotsthat

DervProf wrote: »

The need, or justification for higher house prices seems to be that it's a good thing because it makes everyone wealthier (which it obviously doesn't, unless everyone has a house and the reason for higher house prices is purely down to a stronger economy). Higher house prices, under current circumstances, simply widens the gap between the "haves" and the "have nots". The fact that you can justify not wanting lower houses due to damage to banks, owners etc tells me that we have become too reliant on ever increasing house prices. By wishing for higher prices, you are simply increasing the damage that would occur if prices were to fall in the future. The bull philosophy seems to be that higher house prices = good, and that anyone wanting or predicting lower prices is just wishing for everyone to be poorer. Bulls are generally already homeowners, and I suppose natural greed can lead them to want and justify higher prices. They'll tell any aspiring property purchaser that although the price may be high, it'll be higher in the future, and that's a good thing. Isn't this known as a Ponzi scheme, or something ?

You've just told me why you want prices to stop rising rather than why you want them to fall.

It's all hypothetical but I'd rather house prices didn't fall nominally by a single penny but fell in real terms against wages and inflation. I think that would be better for the country as a whole than nominal price falls.

It seems to me we have an honest disagreement - I just don't understand why your argument is more 'moral' than mine. That's the clear implication from the language used "have/ have nots", "ponzi schemes", "greed", "bull philosophy", "my sense of what is good for the country is greater than my VI" and so on.

DervProf

wotsthat wrote: »

I just don't understand why your argument is more 'moral' than mine.

I may have implied that my argument is based on morals, but I am not claiming that it is more moral than yours. If my opinions seem to be moral, that's just the way I think, not just because I want to be moral. I`ve always been a pretty honest chap, and sometimes to my own cost.

I do witness characteristics of greed from some posters here (not from you, I might add), and the country does seem to be widening the gap between haves and have nots as far a property ownership and wealth tied up in that ownership is concerned.That may not be true, but that's how it seems to me.

mystic_trev

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Personally I would never drop my price 1 penny if I thought it would favour the likes of Bruce Banner.

The nutjobs ranting again.

I see no advantage in buying anything at the moment, even a small house, as I expect prices to fall by 30% or 40% over the next few years.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=182974&view=findpost&p=909142548

Yes dearie, keep taking the tablets.;)