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Property market 'heading for a fall in 2008'

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Comments

  • BTman
    BTman Posts: 354 Forumite
    Uniform Washer
    Sisyphus wrote: »
    :D:D:D:D

    through some fascinating new, Nobel Prize winning, economic theory the Daily Express have concluded:


    you couldn't make this stuff up!

    increased supply = higher prices, brilliant.
    Does anyone agree with this?

    Only in the Daily Express!!:rotfl: I'm just surprised they didn't run a Diana story today...
  • Generali
    Generali Posts: 36,411 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    My opinion, FWIW, is that a fall in house prices is most likely to be caused by interest rates having to rise rapidly to defend a falling Pound. In other words a good old fashioned Labour Sterling Crisis.
  • Sisyphus
    Sisyphus Posts: 293 Forumite
    Melissa177 wrote: »
    Don't forget the increase in population doesn't tell the whole story - it's the increase in households too, as we trend towards people living alone in smaller family units.

    I also agree with this "8 buyers per property" nonsense. I suspect it's calculated by the number of potential buyers on EA's books, which is silly, as I was registered with 20+ EAs when I was looking to buy! Does this mean I am counted as a buyer 20 different times?

    that's why I prefer to listen to the Economics Editor of the Telegraph than some ridiculous contradictory nonsense in the Daily Express.

    But hey "chacun son gout".
  • Melissa177
    Melissa177 Posts: 1,727 Forumite
    Sisyphus wrote: »
    which they say is due to an increase in the supply of houses.

    - second line of the article.

    Thanks - sorry, I think we cross posted!

    Fantastic economics from the Express...

    Next week: Diana conspiracy to lead to house price crash as immigration soars
    Errors of opinion may be tolerated where reason is left free to combat it. - Jefferson
  • Sisyphus
    Sisyphus Posts: 293 Forumite
    Generali wrote: »
    My opinion, FWIW, is that a fall in house prices is most likely to be caused by interest rates having to rise rapidly to defend a falling Pound. In other words a good old fashioned Labour Sterling Crisis.

    In my opinion the reason ,which might be related, would be the same as happening in the US: a withdrawal of liquidity. Lenders will decide that the risks outweigh the rewards.
  • Still look on the bright side , these articles get us all talking and we get to chat with loads of new people. We might not all agree with each other but it is all very civilised compared to the yah boo politics of today. Carry on everyone !
  • BobProperty
    BobProperty Posts: 3,245 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    BTman wrote: »
    Only in the Daily Express!!:rotfl: I'm just surprised they didn't run a Diana story today...
    Diana stories are for Tuesdays. Didn't you realise?
    A house isn't a home without a cat.
    Those are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others.
    I have writer's block - I can't begin to tell you about it.
    You told me again you preferred handsome men but for me you would make an exception.
    It's a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.
  • BobProperty
    BobProperty Posts: 3,245 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Generali wrote: »
    My opinion, FWIW, is that a fall in house prices is most likely to be caused by interest rates having to rise rapidly to defend a falling Pound. In other words a good old fashioned Labour Sterling Crisis.
    Completely agree. As for people talking about supply and demand, sorry, but the two things that affect house prices are affordability and sentiment. You can have as many houses as you like on the market but if the buyers out there can't afford them, they won't sell.
    We are heading for higher interest rates. That is likely to happen in various places around the world because of serious changes in currency exchange rates (mainly against the $) which will cause interest rate changes being needed by various central banks including the UK.
    A house isn't a home without a cat.
    Those are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others.
    I have writer's block - I can't begin to tell you about it.
    You told me again you preferred handsome men but for me you would make an exception.
    It's a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.
  • danm
    danm Posts: 541 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 100 Posts
    You can have as many houses as you like on the market but if the buyers out there can't afford them, they won't sell.

    then surely the price falls until they are affordable? Supply and Demand
  • BobProperty
    BobProperty Posts: 3,245 Forumite
    1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    danm wrote: »
    then surely the price falls until they are affordable? Supply and Demand
    It doesn't work that way though does it? Otherwise putting 10% more houses on the market would produce a 10% reduction in prices which doesn't happen.
    The price doesn't need to fall if banks will lend more money. Which is what has happened over the last few years. More the opposite, you can ask more for the same property because someone is willing to pay more for it, because they can borrow more. Even if there are more properties on the market.
    A house isn't a home without a cat.
    Those are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others.
    I have writer's block - I can't begin to tell you about it.
    You told me again you preferred handsome men but for me you would make an exception.
    It's a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it's a depression when you lose yours.
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