A cry of anguish

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

Except may be your local carpet and diy places would be boarded up, half the take-aways in town closed, potentially your bank nationalised, supported by your taxes. Just because your own direct circumstances might be OK (at least as the result of first round effects) doesn't mean you would be unaffected by the knock on effects - still if you sell burglar alarms and window bars business might be booming...

Edit: Cross post with Chewie

Would this actually happen though? I mean, we have a test case playing out right in front of our eyes. Ireland. These things haven't happened there?

Northern Ireland is 53% down, and B&Q still survives. Local carpet places still trade. Banks still trade. Take aways still make people fat.

Seems it's all a bit of a scare story in my opinion.

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Would this actually happen though? I mean, we have a test case playing out right in front of our eyes. Ireland. These things haven't happened there?

Northern Ireland is 53% down, and B&Q still survives. Local carpet places still trade. Banks still trade. Take aways still make people fat.

Seems it's all a bit of a scare story in my opinion.

you are joking aren't you?

ireland has been bailed out by the EU, and is, to put it politely, completely and utterly f@cked. they were unable to borrow money on the international money markets for 2 years, and austerity is completely unlike anything we are seeing here (i.e. they do actually have austerity, and it isn't fun).

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f3b57d2-edc0-11e1-a9d7-00144feab49a.html#axzz24mJaAXNY

bailout of anglo irish alone to cost the irish taxpayer €30 billion - given the relative size of the irish economy compared to ours, that is off the scale of anything that is happening here. it's like the govt having to recapitalise RBS with £250 billion (instead of the £40 odd they did pay).

unbelievable!

homelessskilledworker

chewmylegoff wrote: »

you are joking aren't you?

ireland has been bailed out by the EU, and is, to put it politely, completely and utterly f@cked.

unbelievable!

Is'nt he talking about Northern Ireland?

Graham_Devon

chewmylegoff wrote: »

you are joking aren't you?

ireland has been bailed out by the EU, and is, to put it politely, completely and utterly f@cked. they were unable to borrow money on the international money markets for 2 years, and austerity is completely unlike anything we are seeing here (i.e. they do actually have austerity, and it isn't fun).

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4f3b57d2-edc0-11e1-a9d7-00144feab49a.html#axzz24mJaAXNY

bailout of anglo irish alone to cost the irish taxpayer €30 billion - given the relative size of the irish economy compared to ours, that is off the scale of anything that is happening here. it's like the govt having to recapitalise RBS with £250 billion (instead of the £40 odd they did pay).

unbelievable!

The bailout makes no difference. We've been bailed out too, we just print our own money. Northern Ireland isn't Ireland anyway.

My question was whether these scare stories would actually happen. I don't believe they would. We'd just be the same as everywhere else. Bailed out.

Shops would continue to trade. You'd still be able to buy the sunday newspaper and an ice cream in the summer, and you'd still be able to buy carpet for the house.

This is tin foil hat stuff.....just from a different approach.

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The bailout makes no difference. We've been bailed out too, we just print our own money.

My question was whether these scare stories would actually happen. I don't believe they would. We'd just be the same as everywhere else. Bailed out.

Shops would continue to trade. You'd still be able to buy the sunday newspaper and an ice cream in the summer, and you'd still be able to buy carpet for the house.

if you think that QE is the same as having to go cap in hand to beg for money from the EU, then you need look only at the yield of short, medium and long term UK gilts, and compare it to their irish equivalents.

UK 5 year gilts currently yielding 0.55%, Irish equivalents recently auctioned off at a yield of 6.1%.

ILW

Prices did drop around 25% in the early 90s.
There was little in the way of support and quite a few got repo'd. It wasn't financial collapse though.

chewmylegoff

Graham_Devon wrote: »

The bailout makes no difference. We've been bailed out too, we just print our own money. Northern Ireland isn't Ireland anyway.

My question was whether these scare stories would actually happen. I don't believe they would. We'd just be the same as everywhere else. Bailed out.

Shops would continue to trade. You'd still be able to buy the sunday newspaper and an ice cream in the summer, and you'd still be able to buy carpet for the house.

yes, ireland isn't northern ireland, but you appear to have used the examples of both ireland and northern ireland. northern ireland is down 53%, but represents a tiny part of the UK economy in relative terms and therefore the fact that they are in a complete mess doesn't cause a localised economic collapse there (as e.g. Ulster Bank is part of RBS).

Graham_Devon

chewmylegoff wrote: »

if you think that QE is the same as having to go cap in hand to beg for money from the EU, then you need look only at the yield of short, medium and long term UK gilts, and compare it to their irish equivalents.

UK 5 year gilts currently yielding 0.55%, Irish equivalents recently auctioned off at a yield of 6.1%.

Northern Ireland is not Ireland.

They are 53% down.

They can still get a paper from the newsagents and can still shop in B&Q. They can still eat a chinese meal from a takeaway on a friday night.

There is evidence that what was suggested isn't true. There is no evidence to say it's true.

We were down a good 20%+ anyway in the UK, and I didn't see the high street imploding and neither did I find I couldn't feed myself as all the shops had shut. I saw chains and shops with huge debts go under.

chewmylegoff

ILW wrote: »

Prices did drop around 25% in the early 90s.
There was little in the way of support and quite a few got repo'd. It wasn't financial collapse though.

yes, but what we are talking about is a completely different situation with the banks already particularly fragile having been exposed through a five year financial crisis, uk property prices already down 10-20% depending on who you speak to, cross-exposure within our banks to many other economies who are doing even worse and our own economy flatlining. if you think you can just chop 30% off nominal values and nothing bad will happen, then you are dreaming as far as i am concerned.

i am no HPI cheerleader, but i don't really want to see the current situation made materially worse either.

Graham_Devon

Fair enough....just can't see the doom scenario play out, thats all. All a bit too tin foil for me!

We were near 30% down by Feb 2009 if I recall? I could still get a packet of chips from the chippie. I just couldn't get pick and mix from Woolworths or a new bathroom from the overpriced Dolphin chain.

Edit: America is another example where the tin foil hat stuff didn't play out. People still shop, and they were over 50% down in some states.