oil prices to $100 pb ?!!! say goldman sachs

blinko

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4399537.stm

deemy2004

It seems inevitable that one day oil will exceed $100. Though when ?

It may take 30 weeks or 30 years .....

Difficult to say... for Ive seen it twice before...
I.e. Oil prices spike, doom about every higher prices, then the price collapses to ridiculously low levels such as $10 or $15 per barrell. Not saying its going to happen this time.

Just that before we get to $100 we WILL see lower prices at several points. I was going to short it last time it was above $55 but chickened out and watched it go to $42.
Now its back up above $55 I am again thinking of shorting it but.... gulp... its risky...........

Ive got to take a serious look at where China and India get their current and will be sourcing future oil from... before I take the plunge and risk maybe $2 per barrel on a short position.

tonys_3

Deemy2004,I think the days of $15 a barrel are now over.Can't find the website,but
I remember some of the salient points.
World consumption is rising faster than production China is the main cause.
Production in the USA and UK dropped by 4biillion barrels last year as their reserves dwindle.
Major problems in Venezuela.
The Americans have totally screwed up in Iraq.
If Bin Laden does manage to disrupt Saudi oil production hang on to your hat.Saudi
Arabia is one of the few countries that could increase production

Sorry can't recall the others.

deemy2004

I do remember when oil was at $40 in the early 90's and at that time I could not imagine it gettting to $15 either ! but IT DID ! So I can't say never... just it is extremely unlikely...

Where the markets are concerned its sentiment and trend you have to pay attention to as all the stats and figures are all old news and already priced into the market.

Yep, there are a quadzillion reasons why crude should rise, which is reflected in the open interest i.e. so many bets in one direction Still a further rally to and probably above $60 will get more people in on a oneway bet, making it ripe for a squeeze on the open interest... i.e. panic selling ! Regardless of the fundementals.

Like I say I am contemplating a short, trying to read the price chart rather than the stats.

Yeh what the hell... putting a Sell Limit at $60.25 on June futures with a $2 stop.

Fatboy_NSS

$100 a barrel is unlikely to happen for some time. There is enough oil in the Canadian oil sands to maintain supply at the current rate for over 100 years. They aren't being expolited at the moment as it isn't profitable, but it becomes profitable if the price of oil is over $60, so if the prices do shoot up that high they will stabilise at around that level (though of course it's a lot more complicated than that, though a new source would reduce the OPEC cartel's ability to manipulate pricing).

Incidentally how many litres are there in a "barrel" of oil? I've always thought of that when I hear barrels mentionned, but have never found out!

lyndeelou

There are 159 litres in a barrel of oil.

blinko

thanks lyndee actually fatboy i think its BP that have invested heavily in the canadian sands several billion if im not correct, appearantly it costs $25 to get 1 barrel of oil out of the sand but its true oil prices can only go up at the moment