House Price Crash Poll

Former_MSE_Andrea

We're repeating this poll as we really want to see how views have changed over time.

Poll Started 5 April. Will House Prices Crash? What will happen to UK house prices over the next year?

a. Increase over 20%
b. Increase 10-20%
c. Increase 5-10%
d. Increase 2-5%
e. No Real Change
f. Decrease 2-5%
g. Decrease 5-10%
h. Decrease 10-20% (smaller crash)
i. Decrease over 20% (crash)
j. I really have no idea

Vote here. To discuss it click reply

worldtraveller

..This time I was wavering between a 10-20% decrease and a decrease of over 20%. I opted for the latter (I'm assuming over the next 1 year), though I think it will be a close call. My main reasonings are as follows:

Labour will probably get back in to power and taxation will need to rise considerably to fill what seems to be an ever increasing "black hole" in the Government finances.

The U.S. economy is fairly strong and the Prime Rate is on an upward trend. This will tend to push rates higher over here.

The housing market is relatively stable-falling at the moment and will be very sensitive to any further rises in our interest rates.

The decline in manufacturing in the U.K., principally due to the importation of cheap consumer & industrial goods from China, Thailand, India, etc., will get significantly worse and unemployment will start to go into a medium-long term upward trend.

With higher interest rates and taxation levels, together with higher unemployment, we will start to enter a "feel bad" phase and people will pull in their belts, reducing spending on housing (as well as consumer goods, etc.).

As I say, I think it will be a close call in the next year, but I feel we could see up to 30% decrease within the next 2 years.

With the huge increases in prices over the past few years, 20%+ in the next year is not such a big decrease!!

deemy2004

So wheres the poll ? ............... :rolleyes:

My guess is a 12% drop over 3 years.

worldtraveller

...it's hiding at the bottom of the main site home page.

nearlyrich

House prices are still rising where we are, a house that sold for £166,000 last October is on the market for £249,000 just for one example. There is also a mill conversion where the apartments are all sold off plan and are now being resold for £20 to £30K more than original price.

I can remember the last price crash when my £45K terrace dropped to £35 just as I was about to sell it:mad: but the same house would go for £150K now, just 12 years later.

I think the people who will lose money are those who are mortgaged up to the hilt maybe with property that is hard to shift who have to move for whatever reason. Anyone who has a house that they can afford, ie they can absorb a couple of interest rate rises and still live, will almost definately make a profit in the longer term.

izzy_flint

If they leave the interest rates as they are or even drop it 0.25% to 0.50% everything should be ok.They have acheived what they wanted too and slowed the housing market right down and made people start to think twice about spending.As long as the people who buy to let don't panic and start to flood the market with their houses everything should be ok as the need for property is still a greater amount than what is avaliable.Although it is a buyers market at the minute with them getting around £10k off most asking prices from what i have heard from a few people selling their own homes.

Moncs_2

I don't think there will be a crash, I stay in Edinburgh and like everywhere in the UK prices have slowed right down.

I think over the next three/four years the prices and interest rates will stay the same and then start rising with inflation.

deemy2004

Interest rates two years from now ?

5.75%............... :eek:

Sheffieldstag

I live in Nottinghamshire and have noticed that a large number of houses put up on the market a while ago still have not been sold.

This obviously means one of two things. Either the prices are too high or people are wary about a property crash and are holding off. My money is on the former.

I'd expect a slow reduction in property prices to a more sustainable and affordable level.

Julesdevon

I think (Hope!) that where we live in Devon the prices will not drop, but stabilise. The reason for this is that we hope to sell our ex-council house for 300% profit at the end of this year and move lock stock to Spain and be mortgage free!!

odannyboy

Think its all pretty straight forward really, I sold my house two weeks ago, an average 3 bedroom terrace. there is no way in two years time I would get what I got for it two weeks ago!!!! I believe I cashed in at the right time.